DraftKings NFL: Week 8 Value Plays

DraftKings NFL: Week 8 Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Apologies for the late posting. I didn't have my usual free block on Thursday to work on the article, in part because I was at the Dolphins-Ravens bloodbath. This week's main slate is the shortest we'll see all season, with six teams on bye and a London game leaving us with just nine games to choose from. The good news is that a bunch of the games offer shootout potential — namely Cowboys-Redskins, Chargers-Patriots and Panthers-Bucs.

Anyway, here are my favorite DraftKings tournament plays for Week 8, picking from the main slate that only includes games on Sunday afternoon. The focus here is on value more so than projected ownership, but it's still a nice bonus if a player doesn't figure to be a popular choice.

Quarterback

Cam Newton, CAR (at TB), $6,600 - Newton has been maddeningly inconsistent, producing outings of 37 and 29.2 DK points in consecutive games (Weeks 4 and 5), but also falling shy of 12 points on three separate occasions. If ever there were a spot where we could rely on him to avoid a flop, this would seem to be it. The Tampa defense was completely shredded in Arizona and Buffalo the past two weeks, and it now heads back home with both starting cornerbacks —
Brent Grimes (shoulder) and Robert McClain (concussion) — officially ruled out. The Bucs don't have a pass rush to cover for their deficiencies outside, sitting on a league-low total of seven sacks. They've given up 8.2 yards per pass attempt and 294.8 passing yards per game, with opponents posting a 102.9 passer rating and 11:4 TD:INT ratio. Matchups simply don't get any better, and Newton's rushing ability gives him a sky-high ceiling.

Other options: Tom Brady, NE (vs. LAC), $7,600; Dak Prescott, DAL (at WAS), $7,300; Russell Wilson, SEA (vs. HOU), $6,500; Kirk Cousins, WAS (vs. DAL), $6,400; Philip Rivers, LAC (at NE), $6,300; Jameis Winston, TB (vs. CAR), $6,100

Running Back

Joe Mixon, CIN (vs. IND), $4,700 - Now entrenched as the Bengals' lead runner, Mixon essentially disappeared in the second half of last week's 29-14 loss to the Steelers, as Giovani Bernard got most of the playing time once Cincinnati was forced to abandon the run. That shouldn't be a problem this week against the Colts, which gives Mixon a good chance to log 15 or more rushes for a fourth time in five games. He hasn't been efficient with his opportunities, but that's partially because a disproportionate number of his carries have come against teams that are tough on the run. Surrendering 4.3 yards per carry and 124.7 rushing yards per game, the Colts offer Mixon the perfect setup for his first big NFL performance.

Matt Forte, NYJ (vs. ATL), $4,200 - Forte turned in a solid game last week against the Dolphins even with Bilal Powell back in the lineup, handling 50 percent of the offensive snaps while taking seven carries for 41 yards and catching all five of his targets for 41 more. Powell's playing time and touches largely came at the expense of Elijah McGuire, who finished with just three carries and zero targets. The Jets may eventually want to get a better look at the rookie, but it's clear they believe their veterans give them a better chance to win at the moment. Forte probably won't reach 50 rushing yards, but he should have success through the air against an Atlanta defense that's allowed opposing backfields to haul in 39 passes for 311 yards and three touchdowns in six games. The Falcons were even worse at defending backs in the passing game last season, giving up 109 catches for 870 yards and six scores (all last or tied for last in the league).

Other options: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (at WAS), $9,200; LeSean McCoy, BUF (vs. OAK), $8,700; Christian McCaffrey, CAR (at TB), $6,200; Doug Martin, TB (vs. CAR), $5,400; Marlon Mack, IND (at CIN), $4,000

Wide Receiver

Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (at TB), $6,400 - As previously mentioned, the Bucs have been completely helpless against the pass and will now go to battle without either of their starting cornerbacks. This price may seem a bit high given Benjamin's production and usage, but don't forget that his averages look much better once you remove the Week 3 game that he left in the first half with a knee injury. He's otherwise averaging 4.5 catches for 71.3 yards on 7.0 targets, leaving his lack of touchdowns (one) as the only real disappointment. Given his track record of red zone production, the TDs should bounce back as the sample increases.

Michael Crabtree, OAK (at BUF), $6,300 - With Marshawn Lynch (suspension) unavailable, there's little question the Raiders will rely on their passing game against a Buffalo defense that just allowed Jameis Winston to throw for 384 yards and a trio of scores. The Bills have presented quarterbacks and wideouts with a tough matchup for the most part, but they suddenly look vulnerable without starting cornerback E.J. Gaines (hamstring) and, possibly, starting safety Jordan Poyer (knee). With Derek Carr proving his health last week and Amari Cooper likely to soak up ownership coming off a massive outing, Crabtree makes for a sneaky tournament play while carrying his usual red-zone upside.

Other options: A.J. Green, CIN (vs. IND), $8,600; Julio Jones, ATL (at NYJ), $8,400; Mike Evans, TB (vs. CAR), $7,900; Doug Baldwin, SEA (vs. HOU), $6,900; Amari Cooper, OAK (at BUF), $6,300; T.Y. Hilton, IND (at CIN), $5,600; DeSean Jackson, TB (vs. CAR), $5,100; Mohamed Sanu, ATL (at NYJ), $4,900; Josh Doctson, WAS (vs. DAL), $3,900

Tight End

Jimmy Graham, SEA (vs. HOU), $4,600 - While yet to produce a big outing this season, Graham has overcome his slow start to the year by reaching double-digit DK points in four straight games, averaging 7.8 targets over that stretch. He's also getting plenty of high-value opportunities, with his seven targets from inside the 10-yard line ranking second in the NFL to Dez Bryant's eight. Graham and the rest of the Seattle passing game shouldn't have too much trouble against an injury-depleted Houston defense, and he'll likely be moderately owned thanks to the popularity of Jordan Reed in the same price range. That's not to say Reed isn't also a strong play, but I slightly prefer Graham when factoring in the likely ownership.

Other options: Jordan Reed, WAS (vs. DAL), $4,700; Jason Witten, DAL (at WAS), $4,200; Jack Doyle, IND (at CIN), $3,500

D/ST

Cincinnati Bengals (vs. IND), $3,600 - Last week featured some attractive team defense options south of $2,500, but that simply isn't the case for our nine-game slate in Week 8. I'll happily pay up for the Bengals defense while obtaining some savings from the other half of a stack with Joe Mixon. The Colts have given up an NFL-high 29 sacks, including 10 last week against the Jaguars. There's a good reason the Bengals are favored by 11 points, with the Colts carrying a meager implied total of 15.5.

Other options: Philadelphia Eagles (vs. SF), $3,800; Seattle Seahawks (vs. HOU), $3,200

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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