DraftKings NFL: Week 9 Tournament Guide

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

As always, I'm happy to discuss strategy in the comments below, or on twitter (@JerryDonabedian).

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1:00, 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the vast majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

(Bold for over/unders of 52+ and implied totals of 26+)

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their DK salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our tourney lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few "chalk" picks. These players, along with a couple passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Justin Jackson vs. LV ($4,900)

Jackson may not have the Los Angeles backfield all to himself, but that hasn't stopped him from averaging 12.3 carries, 5.7 targets and 97 yards in three weeks as the starter. Now playing as a home favorite against a Vegas team that's allowed the seventh-most DK points to running backs, Jackson should provide a solid return on this price even if he's held out of the end zone again. 

• WR Tyler Lockett at BUF ($6,800)

Lockett has been spectacular but also somewhat inconsistent, putting up two games with 40 or more DK points and three others with single digits. Guessing his boom/bust weeks hasn't been easy, but the cumulative production makes him a steal at this price, a full $1,000 below teammate DK Metcalf. If the Bills use top cornerback Tre'Davious White to shadow Metcalf, it would leave Lockett to run his routes against Taron Johnson in the slot and Levi Wallace on the perimeter. Wallace has held his own when he's been healthy, but Johnson has allowed a league-high 392 yards in slot coverage (1.73 per cover snap), per PFF. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Russell Wilson at BUF ($7,600)

QB Deshaun Watson at JAX ($7,100)

QB Derek Carr at LAC ($5,700)

QB Drew Lock at ATL ($5,200)

RB Dalvin Cook vs. DET ($8,200)

RB James Conner at DAL ($6,900)

RB Chase Edmonds vs. MIA ($6,800)

RB David Montgomery at TEN ($5,700)

RB DeeJay Dallas at BUF ($5,000) - if Chris Carson (foot) is out again

WR Julio Jones vs. DEN ($7,200)

WR Keenan Allen vs. LV ($7,000)

WR Terry McLaurin vs. NYG ($6,500)

WR Brandin Cooks at JAX ($5,500)

WR Jerry Jeudy at ATL ($4,700)

TE Noah Fant at ATL ($4,600)

TE Hunter Henry vs. LV ($4,000)

TE Irv Smith vs. DET ($2,900)

D/ST Washington Football Team vs. NYG ($3,400)

D/ST Tennessee Titans vs. CHI ($3,000)

D/ST New York Giants at WAS ($2,700)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of any tournament lineup, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the contest, hoping to take advantage of a tight game where both teams are still chucking the ball around late in the fourth quarter. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.

Seattle Seahawks (29) at Buffalo Bills (26)

Pace Outlook

Overall Pace: Seahawks - 21st (27.94),  Bills - 23rd (28.25)

Neutral-Situation Pace: Seahawks - 27th (31.63),  Bills - 8th (29.1)

The Seahawks rank No. 2 in pass-play rate in neutral game script (62 percent), and the Bills were No. 5 (61 percent) before last week's bad-weather game against the Patriots dropped them way down the rankings. These two teams aren't necessarily uptempo in terms of snapping the ball quickly, but they both like to throw and can score points in a hurry.

Seahawks

Russell Wilson ($7,600) is on pace to break the single-season record for touchdowns passes, and he's also averaging 37.1 rushing yards per game. The Buffalo defense did look a bit better the past two weeks, but that was against the Jets and Patriots, not an MVP-caliber QB who throws half his passes to a pair of superstar wide receivers.

As much as I prefer Tyler Lockett this week, it can also make sense to spend big on Metcalf in lineups that have Wilson as the QB. A deeper dive into this receiving corps isn't likely to be fruitful, as the No. 3 WR spot has been a timeshare between David Moore and Freddie Swain, while Will Dissly has been stealing more routes away from Greg Olsen at tight end recently.

RB DeeJay Dallas ($5,000) could be a great play for cash games, SEA-BUF stacks and other tournament lineups alike, but that's dependent on Chris Carson (foot) missing another week, which remains up in the air as of Friday morning/afternoon.

Bills

After topping 25 DK points in each of his first four games this season, Josh Allen ($7,000) now has fallen shy of 21 points in four straight. Last week he had bad weather as an excuse, but mostly he just hasn't played well, completing only 63.1 percent of his passes for 6.2 YPA over a three-game stretch against the Titans, Chiefs and Jets in Weeks 5-7.

It's worth paying the extra $600 for Wilson, who seemingly has the advantage over Allen in every regard besides red-zone rushing. Stefon Diggs ($7,400) is pricey, but he's a must for any lineup that uses Allen, sitting on 29 percent target share and 38 percent air-yard share.

John Brown ($4,600) has been completely ineffective while playing through a knee injury, and Cole Beasley ($5,400) feels a little pricey for a guy averaging 6.4 targets per game out of the slot. Beasley would be my pick of the two, though I don't feel particularly drawn to either player this week.

• Best Stack: QB Wilson + WR Lockett + WR Diggs

Las Vegas Raiders (25.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (26.5)

Pace Outlook

Overall Pace: Raiders - 25th (28.52),  Chargers - 8th (26.35)

Neutral-Situation Pace: Raiders - 22nd (30.86),  Chargers - 4th (28.11)

The Chargers have gone more uptempo and pass-happy to accommodate Justin Herbert's brilliance, while the Raiders remain a slower-paced team but nonetheless end up in some shootouts because their offense is so much better than their defense.

Chargers

Justin Herbert ($6,800) has scored 19.7 or more DK points in every start, averaging 27.0 and putting up 23.2 or more in four straight games. Keenan Allen ($7,000) has played five full games with Herbert, drawing 10, 19, 11, 13 and 12 targets.

The real question here is whether it's best to use RB Justin Jackson ($4,900), WR Mike Williams ($5,100) or TE Hunter Henry ($4,000) as the third wheel. Of course, that decision might depend on whether you're using Josh Jacobs or Darren Waller (or someone else) as the bring-it-back player from the Vegas side.

Raiders

Derek Carr ($5,700) isn't someone we'd typically target in tournaments, as he doesn't provide much rushing production and mostly throws a bunch of short passes in an offense that likes to run the ball in close games. However, Carr has been surprisingly productive this year, topping 20 DK points in four of his past six games.

Darren Waller ($5,800) is a strong choice for any lineup using Carr, with the tight end's 61 targets nearly doubling his closest teammate (Hunter Renfrow, 34). Renfrow, who costs $4,100 on DK, usually gets a lot more playing time when the Raiders play from behind, so he arguably makes more sense for a Herbert lineup if we're diving into potential game scripts.

On the other hand, a big game from Henry Ruggs ($4,900) would go a long way toward helping Carr hit his ceiling, with the rookie holding an 18.2 aDOT and seeing eight of his 18 targets beyond 20 yards downfield (per PFF). Ruggs still hasn't drawn more than five targets in any one game, but he's been playing about three-quarters of the offensive snaps and has already proven himself capable of putting up 20-plus DK points on limited volume (2-118-1 in Week 5 at KC).

• Best Stack: QB Herbert + RB Jackson + WR Allen + TE Waller

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Carr + RB Jackson + WR Ruggs + TE Waller

QB Allen + WR Diggs + WR Beasley + WR Lockett

QB Patrick Mahomes + WR DJ Moore + TE Travis Kelce

QB Kyler Murray + WR DeAndre Hopkins + WR Preston Williams

QB Deshaun Watson + RB David Johnson + WR Brandin Cooks + WR DJ Chark

QB Matt Ryan + WR Julio Jones + WR Jerry Jeudy + TE Hayden Hurst

QB Drew Lock + WR Julio Jones + WR Jerry Jeudy + TE Noah Fant

QB Ryan Tannehill + RB David Montgomery + WR A.J. Brown + TE Jonnu Smith

RB-Defense Pairing

We can pair a running back with his team's defense to double our bet on favorable game script in certain matchups. Just keep in mind that the scoring correlations aren't nearly as strong as those between quarterbacks and pass catchers, so it isn't worth forcing into a lineup unless the prices for each individual commodity make sense. We also need to account for specialized backfield roles, e.g., using Jonathan Taylor rather than Nyheim Hines with the Colts defense.

• RB Chase Edmonds ($6,800) + D/ST Cardinals ($2,900) vs. MIA

Assuming Kenyan Drake (ankle) doesn't play, Arizona's backfield options will be Edmonds, seventh-round rookie Eno Benjamin and undrafted rookie Jonathan Ward. As a result, Edmonds should see the type of workload Drake handled over the second half of last season — 15.4 carries, 4.4 targets and 101.8 yards per game on 80 percent snap share. The Dolphins are a much better team this year, but they've still had problems defending the run (32nd in DVOA, 29th in YPC) and QB Tua Tagovailoa didn't look good in his first NFL start. Don't be surprised if the Cardinals jump out to a lead and then feed Edmonds a ton of carries.

Honorable Mention: RB Antonio Gibson ($5,800) + D/ST Washington ($3,400) vs. NYG; RB Dalvin Cook ($8,200) + D/ST Vikings ($2,400) vs. DET

High-Priced Hero

• RB Dalvin Cook vs. DET ($8,200)

Cook figures to be the most heavily rostered player on this slate, drawing a cupcake matchup on the heels of a four-TD performance. Even so, he's a great choice for both cash games and tournaments, having scored 17.1 or more PPR points each week this season. The combination of high floor and high ceiling is worth paying up for, especially when he's facing a Lions defense that ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to running backs.

Honorable Mention: QB Russell Wilson, SEA at BUF ($7,600); WR Stefon Diggs, BUF vs. SEA ($7,400); WR Julio Jones, ATL vs. DEN ($7,200); WR Keenan Allen, LAC vs. LV ($7,000); 

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players carrying high ownership without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. Recency bias is often to blame, but in some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB James Robinson vs. HOU ($7,000)

Robinson does have a nice matchup, and I suspect he'll be a popular choice for lineups that use Deshaun Watson, with DFS players hoping a big game from the rookie running back can force the opposing QB to continue throwing passes deep into the fourth quarter. The problem here is team context, with rookie sixth-round pick Jake Luton stepping in for an injured Gardner Minshew (thumb). An already-struggling Jaguars offense could take another step back, and Robinson will have a tough time scoring points if his team's passing game can't pick up first downs. If necessary, I'd rather take a crack at the Jacksonville offense with someone who is cheaper and lower owned, e.g., DJ Chark ($5,200).

Other Fades: RB D'Andre Swift, DET at MIN ($5,000)

The SMASH Spot

Volume may be king, but we still need to account for efficiency, pinpointing situations that are likely to lead to impressive production in terms of YPA, YPC or YPT.

• TE Noah Fant at ATL ($4,600)

The Falcons haven't faced Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Darren Waller or Mark Andrews, but that hasn't stopped them from giving up a league-worst 18.9 PPR points per game to tight ends. In addition to Robert Tonyan's three-TD effort in primetime, Atlanta has been on the receiving end of 9-88-1 from Dalton Schultz, 6-60-2 from Jimmy Graham and 5-59-1 from T.J. Hockenson. Even invisible men have gotten in on the act in recent weeks, with Irv Smith, Kyle Rudolph and Ian Thomas each catching at least three passes against the Falcons. Meanwhile, Fant has handled team-high 20 percent target share in his six games this year, averaging 7.2 targets and 50.7 receiving yards.

Honorable Mention: RB James Conner, PIT at DAL ($6,900)

The Bargain Bin

QB Derek Carr at LAC ($5,700)

QB Drew Lock at ATL ($5,200)

RB Justin Jackson vs. LV ($4,900)

RB J.K. Dobbins at IND ($4,900) - if Mark Ingram (ankle) is out again

WR Randall Cobb at JAX ($4,500)

WR Laviska Shenault vs. HOU ($4,200)

WR Preston Williams at ARZ ($4,100)

WR Keelan Cole vs. HOU ($4,000)

WR Darnell Mooney at TEN ($3,900)

WR Marvin Hall at MIN ($3,800)

WR KJ Hamler at ATL ($3,400)

TE Irv Smith vs. DET ($2,900)

TE Tyler Eifert vs. HOU ($2,700)

D/ST Giants at WAS

D/ST Falcons vs. DEN

D/ST Vikings vs. DET

Injury Situations

The "Sunday Scramble" doesn't need to be stressful. We can plan our response ahead of time for various scenarios that could emerge once inactive lists are released.

•  QB Matthew Stafford at MIN

The Lions placed Stafford on the reserve/COVID-19 list Wednesday, but he hasn't actually tested positive for the virus. It sounds like he should play Sunday, in which case Marvin Jones, Marvin Hall and T.J. Hockenson would all be solid DFS plays. Kenny Golladay's hip injury frees up a bunch of targets in a good matchup, but the improved target-share projection (for Jones/Hall/Hockenson) likely will be cancelled out by a drop-off in QB play if Chase Daniel is filling in for Stafford.

• RB Chris Carson at BUF

DeeJay Dallas ($5,000) averaged only 2.3 YPC in last week's win over the Niners, but he did score a pair of TDs on 23 touches, with 79 percent snap share putting him well above Carson's season high (63 percent). Carlos Hyde (hamstring) is already ruled out, so we should see Dallas handle a big role again if Carson isn't able to play. It sound like it could come down to a game-time decision before the 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday.

• RB Troymaine Pope vs. LV

Pope seemingly came out of nowhere with his 10 carries and seven targets last week, but he apparently suffered a concussion in the process. While Pope mostly took work away from Joshua Kelley, it'll still be a positive development for Justin Jackson's projection if the newest contributor in the Chargers backfield isn't available this weekend

• WR Calvin Ridley vs. DEN

If Ridley isn't able to play through a foot injury, we can increase the target share projections for Julio Jones ($7,200), Hayden Hurst ($4,100), Russell Gage ($4,500) and Christian Blake ($3,000). Jones and Hooper already look like solid plays, while Blake is strictly dependent on Ridley missing the game, and even then he's a zero-floor player.

• WR Tim Patrick at ATL

Noah Fant and Jerry Jeudy have already been mentioned, both in good position to take advantage of the matchup with Atlanta. Give them another boost if Patrick (hamstring) is out for a second straight week, especially after Patrick's absence allowed Jeudy to bump up to 89 percent snap share in the win over the Chargers.

Weather Watch

Wind could have a small impact on games in Jacksonville and Kansas City, but the forecast as of Friday morning estimated it would only be about 15 miles per hour. Weather won't be the major concern it was last week.

The Toilet Bowl

I'm now running a weekly DraftKings contest where the goal is to have the LOWEST point total rather than the highest.

There's no way to make a paid contest of this sort on DK, but I can promise that the winner each week will get a shoutout in the following week's tournament guide. And if anyone manages to win the contest in two different weeks this season, I'll make a $50 donation to the charity of their choice (or to their venmo account).

As much as I hate to be a READ THE RULES type of guy... we did get a lot of lineups last week using injured players or Jets, or just failing to meet our $49.5k salary minimum. Despite that struggle, we did crown a worthy champion for Week 2 of the Toilet Bowl. DraftKings user mmoell88 created a gorgeous lineup with no zeroes and no Jets, putting up 59.72 points to win the week. Here's the winning lineup:

Contest Rules

1. All lineups must use at least $49,500 of the salary cap.
2. No using players from the New York Jets, including the D/ST. Automatic DQ for a violation.
3. Any player with zero points automatically adds 3x of their salary to your point total. So you can put an injured player who costs $7,500 in your lineup, but then we're adding 22.5 points to your final score. The same goes for players who aren't injured but nonetheless finish with zero points. However, negative scores are allowed — in fact, they're encouraged — free of any penalty.

OK, here's the link: https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/95943468

Good Luck!