This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Another week goes into the books and we look ahead to Week 4. The season seems to be flying by and this week will be full of contrarian plays as I think there's a lot of "positive progression" for some players who are off to a slow start. Let's take a look at some wagers to consider this week on DraftKings.
Games
Arizona Cardinals +4 - The Rams have an excellent defense but I don't think they slow down Baby Yoda and the Cardinals offense. Last week seemed to be the Rams early-season Super Bowl beating the Buccaneers soundly and I'd guess they're in for a bit of a letdown facing Arizona. I'd sprinkle a little on the money line here (+180) but would feel more comfortable taking the points at the end of the day.
Houston Texans/Buffalo Bills UNDER 47 - This pick is all about the weather as winds/gusts are expected to be up to 30 mph. That's going to make throwing the ball a bit complicated and I already expected the Texans to rely on their running game without Tyrod Taylor. I can see a 27-7 game and if this trends towards being a Bills blowout, you can expect them to slow the game down late and use their running game to do so.
New York Jets +7 - Does this line make any sense considering the Jets have been outscored 51-6 over their last two games? Maybe not but Vegas or any sportsbook for that matter doesn't continue to live on because they lose. Tennessee seems like a lock here but A.J. Brown will likely miss this game and Julio Jones is banged up as well. I actually think the Jets defense is legit but it's tough for them to be on the field constantly and has to be disheartening to look at the scoreboard and see you're down throughout the game. I think the Jets keep this close and their defense is the difference here.
Player Props
Robert Woods OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards - Woods is off to a slow start but the Rams offense is clicking on all cylinders so Woods' dry spell shouldn't last much longer. Cooper Kupp's hot start was garner a lot of attention from opposing defenses leaving Woods to beat softer coverage. This line is a bit tricky given that Woos hasn't hit the over for this mark in any of his first three games this season.
Amari Cooper OVER 61.5 Yards - The Cowboys had a comfortable lead for most of the second half Monday night so Dak Prescott and Co. didn't need to air it out. The Panthers just lost top corner Jaycee Horn and they're good enough that they should keep this a closer game than the Eagles did. Cooper averaged 70 receiving yards per game last season and back-to-back poor outings have dropped this number to a spot where it can be taken advantage of.
Player Touchdowns
Allen Robinson +150 - Things can't go as badly as they did last week for the Bears and it's a setup that should be more conducive for Robinson and Justin Fields to rebound from last week's performance. Returning home to Chicago and facing the Lions is about as good as a matchup that they'll have this season. Robinson has 21 targets through three games this season so he's still the focal point of the passing game.
Will Fuller +275 - These odds feel pretty generous considering Fuller has the upside of taking any ball thrown to him to the house at any point during the game. While Fuller is technically behind Davante Parker and Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins should use a lot of three-wide receiver sets and their running game hasn't done much to start the season. Fuller played 62 percent of the snaps against the Raiders, a number that could increase this week.
Jamison Crowder +240 - I actually think the Jets have a good chance of pulling off the upset here playing in front of their home crowd. The Titans have some key injuries on offense and they have allowed six passing touchdowns through the first three games of the season. Tennessee is also giving up an average of 12.5 yards per completion, the third-worst rate in the NFL. While Crowder is making his season debut he should make an immediate impact given the lack of wide receiver depth on the Jets.
