FanDuel NFL: Week 10 Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

By now, it's no longer an outlier to see a main slate littered with totals in the high 30s and low 40s. It's started to cause the field to move away from game stacks in favor of skinny stacks and individual plays. FanDuel seems to have adjusted to that trend this week by pushing up the prices of star players (Christian McCaffrey leads the way at $10,500).

Just as that's happened, this week has games on the higher end of totals this year. Even without that benchmark, there appear to be several stackable games in Week 10. Deciding whether to continue with the construction that has proven successful to this point (skinny stacks or individual plays), or whether to fall back into more traditional roster construction (game stack) will be a key to contests this weekend. 

The Games

A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.

• Dallas, Cincinnati, Detroit, Seattle and San Francisco stand out with the highest implied totals of the slate.
• Detroit-Los Angeles, Cincinnati-Houston and San Francisco-Jacksonville have game totals higher than 45.

Value Options

This section will highlight players that project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3X return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis but can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.

Aaron Jones at PIT ($6,800)

Jones has had an up-and-down season, with admittedly far more downs. After a 25.7-point performance in Week 1, he missed the majority of the season until Week 7. He was eased back with little volume for two games until earning 20 carries and four receptions against the Rams in Week 9. That suggests he's back to full strength, and he'll now head into a matchup against a Steelers defense that recently gave up 17.7 points to Derrick Henry and 22.4 to Travis Etienne. The absence of Cole Holcomb (knee) will also loom large. This will almost certainly be the last week to get Jones in this price range.

Jahan Dotson at SEA ($6,200)

Speaking of varying degrees of success this season, Dotson had a difficult start to the year. He reached double-digit FD points once in his first seven games. In two games since, he has 20.8 and 14.9 points. It's not as simple as chasing points, as he's earned a combined 18 targets in those two games (10 and eight, respectively). Through those first seven games in which his production was minimal, he commanded at least eight targets only twice. The Seahawks aren't the best matchup, but this is another player likely to see his salary rise quickly.

Other Value Options

QB Brock Purdy at JAC ($7,400)
QB Sam Howell at SEA ($7,200)
QB Trevor Lawrence vs. SF ($7,100)
RB Bijan Robinson at ARI ($6,600)
RB Najee Harris vs. GB ($6,500)
RB Devin Singletary at CIN ($5,700)
WR Tank Dell at CIN ($6,400)
WR Tyler Boyd vs. HOU ($6,200)
TE Cade Otton at  TEN ($5,200)
TE Luke Musgrave at PIT ($5,100)
TE Trey McBride vs. ATL ($5,100)
TE Juwan Johnson at MIN ($4,900)

Stacks to Consider

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow ($8,200) is back in form and the Bengals are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. On the other side is C.J. Stroud ($7,700), who earned praised for his heroic performance against Tampa Bay last week. Given that combination, this game is going to be very popular. That doesn't mean it's a bad play.

The draw of this game is how targets should condense with the news we've gotten this week. Tee Higgins (hamstring) is out, which should only funnel more opportunity to Ja'Marr Chase ($9, 300). It's a small sample, but in four games where Chase has played but Higgins has not, he's averaged 19.88 half-PPR points per game (14.59 with both on the field). Trenton Irwin ($4,800) is a punt option and Tyler Boyd ($6,200) could be a decent target in a reasonable price range.

Houston is another team to target due to the absences in the offense. Nico Collins (calf) is out, leaving Tank Dell ($6,400) as the top option in the offense. Robert Woods (foot) ($5,300) looks likely to return to the field, and he has a 25.7 percent target-per-route-run mark. Given his role a short underneath role, his primary function is likely to be to take volume away from Noah Brown ($5,400). Unlike Cincinnati, Houston has also gotten their tight end involved in the offense. Dalton Schultz ($6,100) has four touchdowns in his last five games. He and Dell are my favorite plays of the group.

Shifting briefly back to Cincinnati, Joe Mixon ($7,700) is the lone back getting touches in the Cincinnati backfield and is good leverage off Chase.

As for game script, the hope would be that Cincinnati jumps ahead and pushes Houston into a more aggressive posture on offense. That seems like a realistic possibility.

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars

This game has the chance to be the highest scoring of the slate and appears to be overlooked as of this writing. These teams are in the middle of the league in terms of pass rate over expectation and pace of play in neutral game script. On the other hand, both defenses have forced opposing offenses to the air at a top-5 clip in the league as pass funnels. In this case, it doesn't matter which team jumps out to a lead, but hope for early scores from one offensive unit to immediately put pressure on the other.

Now is the time to buy the 49ers at their lowest point in the season. They're being buried in the public after losing three consecutive games. They will also welcome back Deebo Samuel ($7,000), but that shouldn't deter anyone from rostering Brandon Aiyuk ($7,800). Aiyuk has been superior in both targets per route run and yards per route run by a significant margin as compared to Samuel. George Kittle ($6,300) is a boom-bust option, but is at a reasonable price. Christian McCaffrey ($10,300) is in play every week, but the Jags are tough against running backs.

On the Jacksonville side, Travis Etienne ($8,400) would be the best play and is far cheaper than McCaffery. The San Francisco defense is also a pass funnel, however, and are tough against the rush. The Jaguars' offense is within the top 10 in points per game, yet Trevor Lawrence ($7,100) has thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game only twice. Calvin Ridley ($6,700) and Christian Kirk ($6,700) are nearly identical in their peripherals and are priced that way. Kirk is more consistent, but Ridley has a higher ceiling. The preference between the two comes down to other players on the roster and type of contest. For large-field tournaments, Ridley is my preference. Evan Engram ($5,600) has the highest target per route run of the top three pass catchers in the offense. Still, he's not particularly useful for fantasy purposes because his aDOT is just 3.8. He needs to find the end zone at least once while also reaching 60 receiving yards.

High-Priced Hero

Tony Pollard vs. NYG ($7,800)

Pollard has been one of the biggest busts in season-long leagues, but this will be his opportunity to turn things around. The Giants are a disaster in every area of the game, and the implied total for the Cowboys reflects that. Dallas should be looking to get Pollard going with the second half of the season as well as the postseason in view. He should find the end zone multiple times.

Jahmyr Gibbs at LAC ($8,200)

Let's start this by saying Gibbs is not a safe pick, and there's a high likelihood he fails to deliver value for his cost given the return of David Montgomery ($7,500) from a rib injury. There are several things in his favor, however. First, he excelled with Montgomery sidelined, which caused coach Dan Campbell to admit Gibbs would see more work in the second half of the season. Second, Gibbs is known for his ability as a pass catcher, which is how the Chargers should be attacked. The Los Angeles defense has allowed 426 receiving yards to running backs this season — second most in the league to only the Bears. Finally, Detroit has the second-highest implied total of the main slate, meaning it should find its way into the end zone.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

DeAndre Hopkins at TB ($7,100)

It might sound like an overstatement, but Hopkins has a legitimate chance to be the top-scoring receiver of the day. He got good news with the Titans' decision to stick with Will Levis, and the Buccaneers force opponents to the air at the third-highest rate over expectation and the fifth-highest rate overall. They've allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to receivers as a result. Hopkins has a clear hold on targets in the Tennessee offense, and with Treylon Burks (concussion) out, there's even less doubt where Levis's pass attempts will be directed.