This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
*Picks in Bold.
Cincinnati Bengals 
(-3) (-110) vs. Los Angeles Chargers 
This Bengals team is still learning how to deal with success, as evidenced by puzzling losses to the Jets and Browns as they headed into their Week 10 bye. It seems that they used that bye to sharpen their focus and the run game, as Joe Mixon has been an absolute stud in the two games since, 19 and 31-point victories, respectively. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase with a run game to support them? That's a scary proposition, particularly in a game featuring a Chargers' defense that ranks 29th or worse in Points per Possession, TOP per Drive, Rush Yards per Attempt and Rushing TDs. With Justin Herbert's second year regression and Los Angeles' recent 1-5 ATS run, there is nothing I can trust about the Chargers right now. I'm all over Cincy and the short number in this one.
Washington Football Team WFT 
(+1.5) (-106) at Las Vegas Raiders 
The Football Team was a winner in this section last week, and I will continue to back their late-season surge while the value is there. As I said last week, this has been a completely different team since its Week 9 bye, going 3-0 SU and ATS since. I give Vegas a ton of credit for their Thanksgiving performance in Big D, but the fact remains that this team is a shell of itself since the Gruden and Ruggs incidents. The Raiders have not been incredibly successful in their new home, going 2-4 ATS so far this season. Coming off of the most watched NFL game in years against "America's Team," it is logical to think a letdown will follow. NFL dogs are 99-78-1 straight up this year, a mark that hasn't been seen in decades. I have faith that Ron Rivera and Taylor Heinicke will continue their steady run and win this game outright.
New England Patriots 
(+2.5) (-108) at Buffalo Bills 
Remember that time I went against my better judgement and advised a play against New England because I thought the public hype was reaching a fever pitch? Yeah, that isn't happening again. This team is just that good. Mac Jones is playing with ridiculous poise, the offensive line leads a physical and clock-chewing run game, and the defense is nasty. I recently heard a terrific breakdown on the Bills Defense. Essentially, it is built to stop the pass first. They are small and fast, and cause havoc to teams that drop back a bunch. However, when matched up against physical, run-oriented offenses like Tennessee (with King Henry) and Indianapolis, they have been destroyed. I know why the Bills are favored, but they really shouldn't be. Look for the Pats to stake their claim to the NFC East with an emphatic win in Buffalo.
Other Bets
2-Team Teaser of the Week: Miami Dolphins (-2.5) and LA Rams (-6.5), Parlay (+108)
I have to admit, the Dolphins are proving me wrong. After a seven-game losing streak and looking dead in the water, Miami has kept playing hard and have dramatically improved in two key areas: QB play and defense. Tua Tagovailoa has been exceptionally accurate since shaking the injury bug, and the defense has tightened up to be one of the best units over the last four weeks. They haven't played many (any?) great offenses during their four-game winning streak (HOU, BAL, NYJ, CAR), but the Giants fit right in that list, particularly with Daniel Jones out. Miami will be strongly motivated to get the W as they head into their bye. The Rams are a bit of a disaster right now, but they are also soft bullies. They have taken out their frustration on the weak while folding like a chair against the strong. There aren't many weaker than Jacksonville. The Rams need a get-right win and I see them getting it here.
Jamaal Williams over 61.5 rushing yards (-114)
With D'Andre Swift out, Williams will be the lead back for the Lions. I like this juicy matchup. The Vikings have a nasty habit of playing up and down to their competition, so I anticipate this being a close game throughout and not being incredibly concerned about game flow taking Williams out of the script. Minnesota is dead last in the NFL in rushing Yards per Attempt given up, a whopping 4.8! In the first meeting, Williams had 13 carries for 57 yards, and that was with Swift in the fold. The Lions continue to play hard, and Williams is one of the better RB2s in the league. He should be able to clear this relatively low number.
Miles Sanders over 65.5 rushing yards (-114)
Yup, I'm going back to the Miles Sanders well after barely clearing his number last week in this space. I was incredibly disappointed with Philly's performance and ridiculous game script against the Giants last week. Now, they need a win, and I think they will get back to what they do best. Jordan Howard is out, and Boston Scott is questionable, so Sanders is likely in for a solid workload against a putrid Jets defense. The amount of red in their defensive rankings would make Santa happy, but Jets fans can't be cheery about it. Among the carnage: last in opponent's Points per Possession (2.67), 26th in rush Yards per Attempt (4.5) and last in rushing TDs given up (20!). If they are smart, the Eagles make an early statement and Sanders nears this number in the first quarter.
RESULTS
Last week: 3-3, -.2 units — We nailed both player props and got a big cover from WFT on Monday night to minimize the damage. Philly was disappointing; Carolina was just a bad read.
Overall: 3-3, -.2 units
