This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Last Week: 0-4, -4.47 RWBucks
Overall: 0-4, -4.47
An awful start to Week 1. I will take the blame on Jalen Hurts and Mark Andrews, but the Panthers had every chance to go over their team total and bad play calling/red-zone execution left them at 19 points. The Cardinals-Titans game was looking at flying way over 53.5 before both teams just stopped scoring.
I need a big bounce back this week to get back on the plus side so I will expand the number of selections.
Texans at Browns, 1 p.m. EDT
While I expect a heavy dose of the running game for the Browns this week, I like to take advantage of a low total on their No. 2 wide receiver. Odell Beckham is out again this week with a knee injury and Donovan Peoples-Jones had only one target last week. Anthony Schwartz ended up with five targets instead, but he is questionable with a knee injury and was limited in practice all week. DPJ had 26 snaps on pass plays just one behind Jarvis Landry, so he was on the field just did not get the opportunities.
BET: Donovan Peoples-Jones over 29.5 receiving yards (-113) for 1 RWBuck
Bengals at Bears, 1 p.m. EDT
The Bears lost as nine-point road underdogs, 34-14, to the Rams in Week 1. Andy Dalton struggled against the tough Rams defense, but the Bears ran the ball with some success. The Bengals jumped out to big lead at home against the Vikings and held on in overtime to win.
The play here on the Bears is more of a play against the Bengals history on the road with a 1-19-1 record in their last 21. This game means a lot more to the Bears as they are 0-1 and at home vs. the Bengals, who are 1-0 and on the road. The NFL is a lot of who needs the game more and who is in the better spot more often than not.
The line opened Bears -3 and has moved to -1.5. This is more indicative of the public perception of the Bengals winning, but also the Bears losing big in a primetime game.
BET: Bears -1.5 (-110) for 1 RWBuck
Patriots at Jets, 1 p.m. EDT
The Patriots lost 17-16 to the Dolphins in Week 1 despite outgaining them 393-259. Turnovers and penalties were the reason for the loss, and this gives the Patriots extra motivation in their second consecutive divisional game. The Jets lost on the road 19-14 to the Panthers and only gained 252 total yards. The Jets will be without Mekhi Becton with a knee injury. This will hurt rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. The lack of a running game will allow the Patriots defense to focus on rushing Wilson and forcing mistakes.
On the flip side, I see the Patriots playing conservatively on the road with rookie quarterback Mac Jones. I would expect a lot of running and screen passes to James White, which is why I love him to surpass 41.5 total yards.
BET: Jets under 17.5 (-108) for 1 RWBuck
BET: James White over 41.5 (-114) total yards for 1 RWBuck
Bills at Dolphins, 1 p.m. EDT
The Bills come off a disappointing 23-16 home loss to the Steelers, while the Dolphins got very lucky in Week 1, winning 17-16 at New England despite being outgained by 134 yards. This game has some very strong historical trends to the over and the Bills. The last five games in this series have had combined scores of 82, 59, 57, 52 and 59. The totals in those games have ranged from 39.5 to 42.5. The Bills have also won five consecutive against the Dolphins.
BET: Over 47.5 (-110) for 1 RWBuck
BET: Bills -3.5 (-105) for 1 RWBuck
Saints at Panthers, 1 p.m. EDT
The look-ahead line for this game before the season was pick 'em, but after the Saints' 38-3 win against the Packers in Week 1, it has moved all the way to Saints -3.5. That is just too many points to lay on the road in a division game and move based on public perception. The Panthers only won 19-14 against the Jets at home in Week 1, but the score could have been a lot more. They outgained the Jets 282-72 in the first half and had a 16-0 lead.
The Saints caught the Packers with their pants down last week and will not be able to do the same with the Panthers this week. I like the Panthers in a very close game, 23-20.
BET: Carolina +3.5 (-112) for 1 RWBuck
Titans at Seahawks, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Seattle looked very impressive in its 28-16 win Week1 at Indianapolis. If not for a late touchdown by the Colts, it would have been 28-10. While the Seahawks are looking to play more up-tempo with a new offensive coordinator, their defense that made a strong impression also. The Titans got blown out at home against the Cardinals 38-13, allowing five touchdown passes to Kyler Murray.
This total has increased considerably from 52.5 to 54.5, but I am not buying into the line move. If either team gets a lead, they will want to lean on the running game, which will limit scoring. I also think this is a very difficult spot for the Titans, who have to travel west and face the toughest home field crowd at Lumen Field.
BET: Under 54.5 (-114) for 1 RWBuck
BET: Seahawks -6.5 (-110) for 1 RWBuck
