This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Last Week 7-1 +5.09
Overall 12-9 +0.66
It felt good to come back strong last week going 7-1 and getting over the hump for the season. I am going to stick with the majority of sides/totals and one strong player prop.
Sides/Totals
Tennessee Titans 
vs. New York Jets 
Once Julio Jones and A.J. Brown were ruled out this line went from -7 to -6 which is a key move. I am still going to look at the Jets here to at least keep it close or even win outright. If the line had stayed at -7, I would have leaned on the home dog >= 7 under angle that paid off last week. But the Jets have kept opposing quarterbacks in check, and I can see the Titans leaning heavily on Derrick Henry. This game should still be low scoring (Jets are 6-1 to the under last 7 games) which favors taking the home dog with the points.
BET – Jets +6 (-115) for 1 RW buck
Los Angeles Rams 
vs. Arizona Cardinals 
The look-ahead line on this game was Rams -4.5 and it has actually gone down. I have the Rams #1 in my power rankings and I think the Cardinals are overvalued. When I projected lines on Sunday night, I had this Rams -7.
The Rams are 8-3-1 in their last 12 as home favorites with 10 out of 12 going under the total. The Cardinals have gone under in 7 out of their last 10 on the road.
BET – Rams -4.5 (-106) for 1.5 RW buck
BET – Under 54.5 points (-115) for 1.5 RW buck
Indianapolis Colts 
vs. Miami Dolphins 
In using the Rotowire historical betting tool, I decided to research a theory that I have had and others also. It is about the humidity in South Florida especially early in the season. Well, the data came back very strong pointing to Dolphins home games going over the total early in the season. The over is 12-3 in the last 15 September home games in Miami. Now, technically the game is in October, but the temperature at game time is supposed to be 80 degrees.
This number keeps dropping and it is more around what both teams have done on offense or lack thereof in the first three weeks. I don't think this game will be a shootout by any stretch, but I can see 24-20 being attainable.
BET – Over 41.5 (-114) for 2 RW bucks
Pittsburgh Steelers 
vs. Green Bay Packers 
Similar to the Dolphins/September home games, the Steelers have struggled on the road under Ben Roethlisberger. Using the historical odds tool, I found that in the last 18 games in which the Steelers were road underdogs, the under is 72% and 72% of the time they failed to cover the number. (2-7 last 9 on both side and total).
When you consider how bad the Steelers offense has looked this year and all of the injuries, getting the Packers at less than a touchdown at home is incredible value. The look-ahead line was Packers -3 and now it is just -6.5. I have this line more in the 8.5 – 9.0 range.
BET – Steelers under 19.5 (-108) for 1 RW buck
BET – Packers -6.5 (-105) for 1 RW buck
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
vs. New England Patriots 
One of the trends I leaned on last week was taking the under when the road favorite is 7 or higher. Since 2015, the under is hitting at 67%.
I also wrote about how I will be betting the Patriots unders all year long and they are 9-2 to the under in their last 11 games.
I expect the Patriots game plan to be an insane amount of short passes to keep Tom Brady and the Bucs offense off the field and hope to grind out a win in a low-scoring game.
BET – Under 49.5 (-115) for 1 RW buck
BET – Mac Jones over 24.5 pass completions (-148) for 0.5 RW buck
BET – Mac Jones over 37.5 pass attempts (-114) for 0.5 RW buck
Kansas City Chiefs 
vs. Philadelphia Eagles 
This game also fits into the angle of taking the under in games where the road favorite is 7 or more points. Teams have less motivation in nonconference road games and the Chiefs defense has been a major issue. I can see Andy Reid (revenge game) going with a more conservative approach and look to win 31-17.
BET – Under 54.5 (-115) for 1 RW buck
