Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.
Start/Upgrade 👍
Quarterbacks 👍
Bo Nix (vs. DAL) — 76% started
Start Over — Daniel Jones (vs. TEN), Justin Herbert (vs. MIN), Drake Maye (vs. CLE)
Nix seems to be joining a surprisingly long list of young QBs that either got worse or failed to improve between Year 1 and Year 2. In his case, it's perhaps less surprising, given his extensive NCAA experience and advanced age relative to other prospects. The good news is that it hasn't really mattered for fantasy, with Nix's massive volume — 36.6 passes, 5.4 rushes per game — making up for dips in completion percentage (62.5) and YPA (6.1) so far. He can get by with subpar passing efficiency when he's so good at avoiding negative plays — just five turnovers and eight sacks in seven games — and we've already seen how the volume can translate to huge fantasy numbers in shootouts. A matchup with the shootout-prone Cowboys should allow Nix to get his usual volume with better-than-usual efficiency.
- Other Good Matchups: Jalen Hurts (vs. NYG), Joe Flacco (vs. NYJ), Michael Penix (vs. MIA), Spencer Rattler (vs. TB)
Running Backs 👍
- J.K. Dobbins (vs. DAL) — 71% started
Start Over — D'Andre Swift (at BAL), Rico Dowdle (vs. BUF), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (at KC)
Dobbins has four straight games with exactly one target, and three in a row before that with exactly two. He needs rushing production to put up a strong fantasy score, but there's also hidden upside for 3-4 targets against a Dallas defense that's allowed the second-most receiving yards (377) and second-most targets (48) to running backs. Dobbins is often on the field for nearly half of Denver's pass plays, but he sometimes blocks and then has a meager 12 percent target rate on routes (a number that's unlikely to stay that low). He can also just get there the traditional way against a defense that's Bottom 5 for everything from EPA/carry to PPR points allowed to RBs. Dobbins has good odds to score a TD this week even if he otherwise ends up being the forgotten man in a pass-happy affair.
Isiah Pacheco (vs. WAS) — 56% started
Start Over — Chuba Hubbard (vs. BUF), Kimani Vidal (vs. MIN), Nick Chubb (vs. SF)
Brashard Smith has been a hot topic in the fantasy world this week, but Pacheco is the one with recent role growth that wasn't primarily based on garbage time. He took 62 percent of snaps prior to the fourth quarter last week, putting him on track for his third straight game above 60 percent after landing south of that number in each of the first four games. Pacheco also has his two best marks for carries (12, 15) and rushing yards (51, 57) over the past two weeks, quietly re-entering the back end of the RB2 mix while Kareem Hunt has become little more than a situational specialist.
Unfortunately for Pacheco, goal-line work is likely still part of Hunt's otherwise limited domain, while Smith is around to take a bunch of schemed touches and garbage time. What Pacheco does have, again, is a role as the team's lead rusher, potentially allowing for another 12-15 carries if the Chiefs come away with a comfortable win again (they're favored by 12.5 with Jayden Daniels out).
- Other Good Matchups: Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier (vs. MIA), Jonathan Taylor (vs. TEN), Chase Brown (vs. NYJ), Derrick Henry (vs. CHI), Rachaad White (at NO), Jordan Mason (at LAC)
Wide Receivers 👍
WR Zay Flowers (vs. CHI) — 66% started
Start Over — Xavier Worthy (vs. WAS), Stefon Diggs (vs. CLE), Quentin Johnston (vs. MIN)
The volume has dropped off some since Weeks 1-2, but Flowers still has career-high marks for target share (29.3 percent) and air-yard share (33.3 percent), nearly doubling his second-place teammate in both cases. If Lamar Jackson (hamstring) returns this week, Flowers can be treated as a high-to-mid WR2 for fantasy, facing a Bears defense that was already playing without top cornerback Jaylon Johnson (IR - groin) and may now have No. 2 CB Tyrique Stevenson (shoulder) sidelined as well. Chicago has allowed the 13th-most PPR points to WRs (33.7 per game) on just 15.2 targets per game (third least).
Romeo Doubs (at PIT) — 50% started
Start Over — Wan'Dale Robinson (at PHI), DJ Moore (at BAL), Jauan Jennings (at HOU)
I still worry that Green Bay's receiving shares will flatten out some when more guys are healthy, courtesy of Matt LaFleur, but there's no doubt that Doubs and Tucker Kraft have a good thing going right now. Doubs has three straight games with either eight or nine targets and at least five catches for 55 yards. He should keep it rolling against a Pittsburgh defense that's allowing the fifth-most PPR points (39.0) to wide receivers.
The Steelers have an impressive-looking collection of veteran defenders on paper, but we've also seen the downside to starting three 30-somethings in the secondary. Darius Slay and Jalen Ramsey aren't quite what they used to be, and S Chuck Clark was never especially good in the first place. Clark and DeShon Elliott, both former Ravens, give Pittsburgh one of the hardest-hitting safety duos in the league — but certainly not one of the better duos in coverage. Furthermore, 31-year-old T.J. Watt is now merely excellent, not a dominant wrecking force and perennial DPOY candidate.
- Other Good Matchups: A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith (vs. NYG); Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin & Marvin Mims (vs. DAL); Tee Higgins (vs. NYJ); Matthew Golden (at PIT); Emeka Egbuka, Tez Johnson & Sterling Shepard (at NO); Alec Pierce (vs. TEN); Elic Ayomanor (at IND)
Tight Ends 👍
Colston Loveland (at BAL) — 4% started
Start Over — Theo Johnson (at PHI), Juwan Johnson (vs. TB), Jonnu Smith & Pat Freiermuth (vs. GB)
Loveland played 92 percent of Chicago's snaps after Cole Kmet left Sunday's 26-14 win over the New Orleans with a back injury. Kmet is now missing practice this week, potentially setting up Loveland for a three-down role against a Baltimore defense that's allowed opposing tight ends to produce 15.2 PPR points per game (25th), with 9.4 YPT (31st) and a 90.7 percent catch rate (32nd). The Ravens should be somewhat improved after a bye, but they'll still have Zach Orr as their defensive coordinator while top pass rusher Nnamdi Madubuike (neck) is stuck on injured reserve.
- Other Good Matchups: Mark Andrews (vs. CHI), Mason Taylor (at CIN), Evan Engram (vs. DAL), Noah Fant (vs. NYJ)
Sit/Downgrade 👎
Quarterbacks 👎
Jaxson Dart (at PHI) — 28% started
Start Instead — Justin Herbert (vs. MIN), Drake Maye (vs. CLE), Daniel Jones (vs. TEN)
I'm apparently a glutton for punishment, coming back for more after Dart made me look like a fool last week. He's arrived as a fantasy QB1, largely driven by rushing production and explosive plays, but I'd still put him toward the bottom of that QB1 barrel for a road trip to Philadelphia. This game won't be played in New York Jersey on three days' rest, which partially explains why the Giants are 7.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 18 points (fourth-lowest of Week 8). Dart looks like the real deal as a potential franchise QB, but he's not nearly athletic enough to sustain this level of rushing production, nor is he accurate enough (yet) to put up strong passing efficiency numbers with Wan'Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton as his top receivers. There's a floor here that we haven't seen yet, and it might show up this Sunday.
- Other Tough Matchups: Jaxson Dart (at PHI), Marcus Mariota (at KC), Tua Tagovailoa (at ATL), Mac Jones (at HOU)
Running Backs 👎
Rico Dowdle (vs. BUF) — 61% started
Start Instead — Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. CLE), Jordan Mason (at LAC), Jaylen Warren (vs. GB)
Dowdle isn't a must-start this week, despite what his recent production and Buffalo's run-defense stats might seem to suggest. Dowdle ended up with more carries and yards than Chuba Hubbard last week, but they consistently rotated by drive in a rare, true-50/50 split of the backfield work. While I don't know the plan for this week, there's clearly downside for Dowdle to get half or fewer of the snaps/touches in a game where the Panthers are touchdown underdogs.
I'd also argue that Buffalo's run-defense concerns are overblown, with Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson accounting for a huge portion of the production and injuries also being a big factor. On that note, Buffalo's injury reports are worth tracking if you're on the fence about starting Dowdle this week. DT Ed Oliver is back healthy now, but LBs Matt Milano (pec) and Terrel Bernard (ankle) opened the week as limited participant, while DT DaQuan Jones (calf). I'm guessing Milano and Bernard will play, but it's clear the bye week didn't quite bring Buffalo back to full strength.
Tony Pollard (at IND) — 58% started
Start Instead — Isiah Pacheco (vs. WAS), Kimani Vidal (vs. MIN), Woody Marks (vs. SF)
A bunch of Tyjae Spears' carries have come in garbage time, but it's obviously not a coincidence that Pollard's workloads (and his production) have trended down since his backfield mate returned from injured reserve. We did at least see Pollard catch four passes on the final drive* last week, well into garbage time, but only after Spears handled much of the prior work throughout the second half. Things may shake out similarly this week with the Colts favored by 14.5 in a home game against the pathetic Titans.
*He caught dump-offs on four straight plays to open Tennessee's final drive of the game, scoring 7.2 PPR points in one minute after having 4.9 up to that point.
- Other Tough Matchups: Cam Skattebo (at PHI), Quinshon Judkins (at NE), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (at KC)
Wide Receivers 👎
Stefon Diggs (vs. CLE) — 68% started
Start Instead — Michael Pittman (vs. TEN), Keenan Allen (vs. MIN), Jordan Addison (at LAC)
Diggs should probably get more credit as one of the big stories of the 2025 season, catching 39 of 43 targets (88.6 percent) while still less than a year removed from an ACL reconstruction. He's an incredibly valuable player again, but more so in real life than fantasy, in part because he's often on the sideline for around one-third of New England's pass attempts. What's more, the lack of TDs (zero) isn't merely bad luck, with Diggs getting just one of the team's 16 end-zone targets so far.
He has just two targets of 20-plus air yards, and he's been on the field for just 38.1 percent of New England's snaps inside the 5-yard line. Until we see usage growth, Diggs is a fantasy WR3 who can be benched in tough matchups — like this one against a stout Cleveland defense in a game where the Patriots may not have to throw a ton (seven-point favorites).
- Other Tough Matchups: Jaylen Waddle (at ATL), Deebo Samuel (at KC), Jauan Jennings & Kendrick Bourne (at HOU)
Tight Ends 👎
Oronde Gadsden (vs. MIN) — 39% started
Start Instead — Jake Ferguson (at DEN), Tucker Kraft (at PIT), George Kittle (at HOU)
To be clear, there are definitely situations where Gadsden should be started this week. With six NFL teams on bye, a lot of fantasy teams won't have the luxury of benching someone who just put up 232 yards over the past two games. Personally, I've got one team where I'm starting Gadsden and Tucker Kraft rather than FLEXing Chuba Hubbard, Tez Johnson or Keon Coleman.
For those with better alternatives, it's worth considering the potential issues arising from a matchup with a Vikings defense that excels at disguising coverages and ranks second in the league in blitz rate (38.9 percent). Gadsden may have to stay in to block on a few pass plays, and he might even give a few snaps back to Will Dissly. This is likely a better matchup for Keenan Allen, whose ability to quickly identify coverages and soft spots led to 15 and 13 targets in two games against the Vikings last year.
Gadsden may eventually become a set-and-forget starter, but we're not quite there after two weeks, which means top-5 TEs and solid FLEX plays at RB/WR should still be started over the rookie.
- Other Tough Matchups: George Kittle (at HOU), Zach Ertz (at KC), Theo Johnson (at PHI)
Streaming Picks
For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)
QB Jaxson Dart (at PHI)
QB Joe Flacco (vs. NYJ)
RB Woody Marks (vs. SF)
RB Tyler Allgeier (vs. MIA)
WR Tez Johnson (at NO)
WR Darnell Mooney (vs. MIA)
WR Kayshon Boutte (vs. CLE)
TE Oronde Gadsden (vs. MIN)
TE Harold Fannin (at NE)
TE Cade Otton (at NO)
K Tyler Loop (vs. CHI)
D/ST Falcons (vs. MIA)
D/ST Bills (at CAR)
D/ST Buccaneers (at NO)
D/ST Ravens (vs. CHI)
For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)
QB Michael Penix (vs. MIA)
RB Brashard Smith (vs. WAS)
RB Tyjae Spears (at IND)
RB Jerome Ford (at NE)
WR Alec Pierce (vs. TEN)
WR Elic Ayomanor (at IND)
WR Marvin Mims or Troy Franklin (vs. DAL)
WR Darius Slayton (at PHI)
WR Xavier Legette (vs. BUF)
TE Mason Taylor (at CIN)
TE Theo Johnson (at PHI)
TE Dalton Schultz (vs. SF)
TE Jonnu Smith (vs. GB)
K Michael Badgley (vs. TEN)
K Will Reichard (at LAC)
D/ST Bengals (vs. NYJ)
D/ST 49ers (at HOU)
For Deep Leagues (Under 15 Percent Rostered)
QB Carson Wentz (at LAC)
QB Marcus Mariota (at KC)
RB Justice Hill (vs. CHI)
RB Isaiah Davis (at CIN)
RB Samaje Perine (vs. NYJ)
WR Calvin Austin (vs. GB)
WR Sterling Shepard (at NO)
WR Jaylin Noel or Jayden Higgins (vs. SF)
TE Noah Fant (vs. NYG)
K Parker Romo (vs. MIA)
K Matt Prater (at CAR)
D/ST Cowboys (at DEN)
