This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Packers vs. Raiders Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Monday Night Football, Week 5
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Monday Night Football brings an inter-conference matchup of two teams with new starting quarterbacks from a season ago when the Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) host the Green Bay Packers (2-2). Let's dig into the betting market and discuss three wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Packers vs. Raiders Betting Odds for Monday Night Football
Packers: Spread +2.5 (-112), +114 Moneyline
Raiders: Spread -2.5 (-108), -135 Moneyline
Game Total: 45.0 points
This line opened as Packers -1.5 and moved to -2.5, but in the last five days it has shifted to Raiders -2.5 for a full five-point move. The main reason for the line move is Jimmy Garoppolo will be starting for the Raiders at quarterback. The total has gone from 43.5 up to 45.0.
Totaling bets thus far, 87 percent of the money and 79 percent of the bets are on the Packers. There is 92 percent of the money on the Packers money line, which is 62 percent of the bets. There is 68 percent of the money and 75 percent of the bets on the OVER.
Key injury situations to watch
Raiders: Davante Adams (shoulder-questionable; did not practice), Maxx Crosby (knee-questionable; limited practice), Nate Hobbs (OUT)
Packers: Jaire Alexander (back-questionable; limited practice), Aaron Jones (hamstring-questionable; limited practice but played last week with only five carries), Luke Musgrave (concussion-questionable; full practice), Christian Watson (hamstring-questionable; limited practice, came off injury report Saturday)
The Adams news is one to watch and makes you wonder why this line moved in favor of the Raiders so much if his status is in doubt. It is a revenge game for Adams, and he has been limited in practice. Alexander's playing status is probably tied to Adams, if Adams goes I would expect Alexander to also play.
Packers vs. Raiders Betting Picks This Week
Packers vs. Raiders Best Bet: Christian Watson OVER 40.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -135) for 0.5 unit
There is risk in taking Watson in any OVER props, but this is the second week he is back and looks to be fully healed from his hamstring injury. Rotowire projections have him at 52 for a +22% profit over his 40.5 receiving yards. You can find 44.5 receiving yards at lower juice in other spots, but I will go with the lower number. Nate Hobbs has been ruled OUT which should help the Packers' wide receivers.
Packers vs. Raiders Best Bet: Jordan Love OVER 13.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -106) for 0.75 unit
The prop menu is rough for this game, but quarterback rushing yards is something I always look at because it is usually mispriced. Jordan Love's rushing yards prop is 13.5, which is a tad lower than expected as he has gone for 12, 23, 39, and -2 in his first four games. Recency bias is a huge thing when talking player props and the Packers' run game is non-existent. Also, their passing game is very boom or bust, so Love will be in third-and-long situations that could result in additional rushing attempts.
Packers vs. Raiders Best Bet: Jimmy Garoppolo OVER 0.5 INT (DraftKings -125) for 1 unit
This just got posted and I wanted to add it in at the last minute. Jimmy G has thrown at least 1 interception in all of his starts and with the dysmal running game for the Raiders, he will have to throw a ton.
Packers vs. Raiders Best Bet: 2-Team Teaser
Packers +3.5 and UNDER 54.5 (FanDuel -100) for 1 unit
With all of the line movement on this one, injury question marks, and just overall questionable play by both teams; taking either side or total straight up did not look appealing to me. You can tease the Packers up to +3.5 as insurance in case they lose by a field goal. I was looking at OVER 36.5, but I like the UNDER first half so that would be negative correlation, so I went UNDER 54.5.
Packers vs. Raiders Prediction
The Packers come into this game with additional rest having played last Thursday in a 34-20 loss to the Lions and are now playing on Monday Night. The Raiders come in with one extra day of rest, but with their starting quarterback. They lost last Sunday on the road to the Chargers, 24-17.
The Packers have covered four in a row on the road, and have an 8-2 record as road dogs ATS in their last 10. The Raiders are 1-3 ATS this season with a -9 turnover differential. The Raiders have been middle of the road in passing offense/defense, but bottom five in rushing offense/defense. The problem is the Packers are even lower in rushing offense/defense, so neither team can run or stop the run.
Neither team has any strengths or weaknesses to exploit in this game, but I will look at the Packers as slight road dogs in this game to win, 24-20. In their eight combined games, the total has gone over 41 in 6 of them.
