This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
Kenry Miller is a normal guy like you and me. The 39-year-old Army veteran, who was born in Jamaica and now resides in Phoenix, loves sports, studying history and playing video games.
Unlike most of us, he has won more than $75,000 in DFS contests since March. He started playing DFS in 2022 and got serious about it in 2023, trying two popular subscription lineup optimizers with limited success. After signing up for a RotoWire free trial, he won his first contest and knew he found the optimizer that he'd use going forward. He says that his knowledge of DFS strategy combined with the RotoWire Lineup Optimizer has been the winning formula for him. Now the RotoWire DFS + Picks subscription pays for itself with the prize money that he continues to win. He has 15 first-place wins in NFL and NBA contests with RotoWire, including a $14,000 top prize.
Miller agreed to share his secrets to success, stating that he "wants DFS players to know RotoWire is the winning website for fantasy sports." In an email exchange, he explained his general strategy for Showdown contests and the specific steps he's taking for the Week 10 Monday Night Football game between the Dolphins and Rams.
NFL DFS Showdown Strategy
1. Before making any adjustments to the lineup optimizer, take five pregame factors into consideration.
Matchup
Is there a shutdown corner who will limit the top receiver's upside? Or maybe the top running back can exploit a bad run defense?
Injuries
Who is out or may be limited, and who will reap the benefits of additional usage?
Total Points
Check sportsbooks to see the over/under. If it's expected to be a low-scoring game, then kickers and defenses could be in play. If the total is particularly high, then it is more likely to be a shootout with QBs and WRs leading the way.
Implied Score
See how many points each team is projected to score. You'll set up stacks using the team that is expected to score more.
Weather
Heavy rain and wind gusts can have a big impact on both the passing and kicking games.
2. RotoWire's projections factor those variables in, but Miller has his own scoring system where he also looks at players' fantasy scores from the previous three games. Based on that he increases or decreases some of the player projections manually within column "FPTS" of the optimizer.
3. Next, he adjusts the minimum and/or maximum exposure for each player. Typically:
Starting QBs: 50-80 percent exposure
Top WRs: 45-60 percent exposure
Secondary WRs: 40 percent maximum exposure
Top TEs: 45 percent maximum exposure
Kickers: 35 percent maximum exposure
Defense: 15 percent maximum exposure
4. Then he sets the Projection Variance Factor to somewhere between 5-15 percent.
5. If entering a contest with 150 max entries, he sets the Minimum Salary at $57,500.
Some additional tips:
- Never lock players. Only like players. You don't want to lock a player and take the risk of that player getting injured or having a poor performance that ruins all your lineups.
- Exclude defenses if the projected points total for the game is 47 or higher.
- If the projected points total for the game is 38 or lower, Miller typically avoids those games.
- Miller always does multiple entry contests and mostly submits the max entries allowed.
Monday Night Football: Miami at Los Angeles
In addition to the Lineup Optimizer customizations above, Miller will diversify the MVP position by setting maximum Captain Exposures. He notes that QBs are almost always projected to score the most fantasy points, so if you don't set maximums then you'll end up with a significant percentage of lineups relying on the QBs to deliver in that MVP spot on FanDuel. You want to avoid that because winning DFS lineups regularly have RB or WR as the highest scoring player in the MVP spot. For tonight's contest, Miller identified seven players who he would like to fill most of his MVP spots, and he set their maximum Captain Exposures at:
Tua Tagovailoa 22%
Matthew Stafford 20%
Kyren Williams 18%
De'Von Achane 15%
Puka Nacua 8%
Cooper Kupp 8%
Tyreke Hill 8%
*As of this writing, whether or not Tyreke Hill will play is considered a game-time decision. If he doesn't play, then you can spread his exposure across the other top six options.
After following his system and generating his lineups, this is Miller's player exposure for Monday Night Football:
For more DFS strategy, join the conversation in our Discord community. We would love to hear about your big wins and the strategies that have worked for you.
