Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown

We're treated to two games Monday night with very high totals, as the Chiefs are 5.0-point favorites on the road against the Bills in a game with a 57.0-point total, while the Cowboys are one-point home underdogs to the Cardinals with a 55.0-point over/under. The biggest story of the slate is the absence of Dak Prescott, whose season-ending injury is the only reason we don't have four quarterbacks over $6,500 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel. Flags will have to be planted on this slate, as it's certainly not easy to fit in all the players we'd usually want.

QUARTERBACKS

Andy Dalton, DAL vs. ARI ($5,200 DK, $7,000 FD): Not what you expected? The other three quarterbacks on the slate are all set up very nicely, with Patrick Mahomes ($7,500 DK, $9,000 FD) leading the way salary-wise, followed closely by Kyler Murray ($7,300 DK, $8,400 FD) and Josh Allen ($6,800 DK, $8,600 FD). The Bills' defense has actually been pretty poor, at least compared to their preseason expectations, and they come in allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, which certainly helps Mahomes' case. Realistically, the only thing against Mahomes is his price, but it's still not high enough and he'll still be pretty popular. 

Murray has a decent matchup against the Cowboys, who were smoked in Weeks 2 and 3 but have otherwise been okay against quarterbacks. He brings in a solid rushing floor, having rushed for at least 67 yards in three of five games, but he may actually be the least popular of the four because of his price, as you only need $200 on DraftKings to get to Mahomes.

Allen is coming off his worst game of the season, but he still managed to throw for 263 yards and two touchdowns while adding 18 rushing yards in the Bills' Week 5 loss to the Titans. It was the first time all season that Allen didn't account for at least three touchdowns, and it's probably just noise that his passing yards have decreased in each of his last four, going from 415 to 311 to 288 to 263. The Chiefs' defense has been solid at times this season, though they were carved up by Derek Carr for 347 yards and a touchdown last week. Given Allen's touchdown equity this season, he seems likely to be more popular than Murray.

And that leaves us with Dalton, by far the cheapest option on both sites, and deservedly so. The Cardinals have been decent statistically against quarterbacks, but even an average defense should theoretically look good against the 49ers, Football Team, Lions, Panthers and Jets, right? Teddy Bridgewater passed for 272 yards and two touchdowns while adding a rushing score against them in Week 4, and generally this isn't a matchup we need to avoid. When you step away from it, Dalton is the quarterback for a team with an implied total of 27 points as a slight home underdog, and he saves more than $2,000 from the most expensive quarterback on the slate. Oh, and he has some of the best pass catchers in the league, including his running back, who will probably make people hesitate on playing Dalton. Given the elite wide receivers on the slate, plus an elite tight end, there will surely be people who give Dalton a go and hope for the best.

RUNNING BACKS

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. ARI ($7,700 DK, $9,500 FD): There's Elliott and there's everyone else on this two-game slate. He hasn't reached 100 rushing yards in a game this season, but he's also scored at least one touchdown in all but one, and last week was just the second time he failed to get at least six receptions. Given the hesitancy many could have about Dalton, Elliott is likely to be extremely popular because he's the easiest path to the Cowboys' offense and figures to get a ton of touches.

The second running back spot is interesting because the Bills and Cardinals don't have a single dominant back while the Chiefs' Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,000 DK, $7,400 FD) has struggled to get much going while seeing his carries reduce significantly in the past two games. The plus for Edwards-Helaire is that he remains involved in the passing game, but he seems much more suited for GPPs than cash games because of his uncertainty. However, there's theoretically plenty to like, as he's the starting running back on the team with the highest implied total on the slate and with the biggest spread.

The Buffalo and Arizona backfields are a bit different, partially because of a similar reason: they have quarterbacks who can run the ball, particularly near the goal line. Devin Singletary ($7,700 DK, $6,300 FD) is still looking for his first game with 80 rushing yards this season, and while he does get involved in the passing game a bit, he was completely phased out in last week's big loss to the Titans, losing touches to T.J. Yeldon ($4,000 DK, $4,500 FD), who rushed seven times for 52 yards and caught one of three targets for a 22-yard touchdown. Additionally, Zack Moss ($4,000 DK, $5,300 FD) is expected back from injury, which only creates more backfield uncertainty after he got 17 carries and four targets in the first two games (he's been hurt since). But Allen is the issue, as he's behind Singletary (10) and Moss (eight) in red-zone carries (he has seven), but he leads the team with five inside the five-yard line, including three touchdowns. Due to the uncertainty, latching onto the Bills' backfield in cash games seems risky.

Murray's rushing attempts also throw a little wrench into the Arizona backfield, though we also have to address that Chase Edmonds ($4,900 DK, $6,000 FD) might just be better than Kenyan Drake ($4,800 DK, $6,100 FD). Unfortunately, they are priced as such, though not to the extent where we need to avoid Edmonds. I'll just steal from Jerry Donabedian's Hidden Stat Line from earlier this week to nail this point home:

• The snap share was a season high for Edmonds, topping his 37 percent from the previous week. The Cardinals accomplished this by running eight snaps with two RBs, rather than by cutting back Drake's playing time. Prior to Week 5, the Cardinals had run only six plays all season with multiple RBs on the field.
• Drake's snap share still hasn't gone lower than 65 percent or higher than 71 percent.
• Edmonds got six targets for a second straight week, and now is averaging 4.6 per game. He also had his first rushing TD of the year, striking from 29 yards out.
• Edmonds had a 4-to-3 advantage in snaps on 3rd-and-medium/long, continuing the approximately 50/50 split we've seen in those situations. Drake also maintained a tiny lead in routes run, while Edmonds maintained his massive lead in targets per route.
• Edmonds has been targeted on 23 of his 76 routes (30.3 percent), while Drake has been targeted on only six of 95 (6.3 percent). Both numbers are at the far ends of the spectrum for what you'll ever see across a large sample, so we can still expect a little convergence... maybe? (I've been thinking the same thing since Week 2/3, and it still hasn't happened.) It's also possible Edmonds chips away at Drake's role, given that KD's 3.7 YPC places him 39th among 43 qualified rushers.
• Drake also blocks a bit more often — 22.1 percent of his pass snaps, compared to 12.9 percent for Edmonds, per PFF.

Keep in mind that this came after a game in which Drake rushed 18 times for 60 yards and a touchdown while catching his only target for two receiving yards and Edmonds had 36 rushing yards and a touchdown but on only three carries. Oh, and he caught five of six targets for 56 yards. It's not that Edmonds is such a great play at his price that we have to go there, but it seems he's definitely good enough to keep us away from Drake, at least in cash games.

WIDE RECEIVERS

DeAndre Hopkins, ARI at DAL ($7,900 DK, $8,800 FD): Hopkins leads the NFL in receptions and receiving yards, and he's now facing a Cowboys defense that's given up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers, thanks in part to their 10 touchdowns allowed (nine receiving, one rushing). He was in line for a fairly pedestrian game last week against the Jets until grabbing a long 45-yard pass and then a 37-yard touchdown on the Cardinals' final drive, finishing with six catches on seven targets for 131 yards, his third game this season with more than 130. As a result, he's the most expensive wide receiver on both sites, with the Chiefs' Tyreek Hill ($6,700 DK, $8,300 FD) $1,200 less on DraftKings. The only downside to Hopkins is that he is generally getting short targets, as evidenced by his 7.9 aDOT, the lowest among the top 15 most-targeted wide receivers in the league this season. However, the volume is there, so he's likely to make it work. Meanwhile, Hill is much more of a big-play threat, as he has only 35 targets this season but 560 air yards (Hopkins has 418) for a 16.0 aDOT. You just have to hope at least one of his targets hits, as he's gotten exactly six in each of the last three games.

Buffalo's Stefon Diggs ($6,200 DK, $7,100 FD) is a mix of the two, as he's fourth in the NFL with 51 targets and second in receiving yards (509, trailing Hopkins' 528), but his 523 air yards are seventh-most in the NFL, one spot behind Hill. All three are worthwhile considerations, though Diggs' big-play potential could have some people looking his way because he's considerably cheaper than Hopkins and more reliable, at least from a target volume perspective, than Hill.

Salary-wise, the Dallas trio of CeeDee Lamb ($5,800 DK, $6,400 FD), Amari Cooper ($5,500 DK, $7,600 FD) and Michael Gallup ($4,700 DK, $5,700 FD) all look attractive, but you then have to remember that they'll be catching passes from Dalton and not Prescott. They've been priced down accordingly on DraftKings, enough so that some people may consider playing one of them and a guy more expensive. Lamb is coming off a huge game against the Giants, catching eight of 11 targets for 124 yards, which was preceded by two touchdowns against the Browns in Week 4. Meanwhile, Cooper had a surprisingly poor game against New York, catching two of four targets for 23 yards, but he seems primed to bounce back, potentially closer to his performance against the Browns when he caught 12 of 16 targets for 134 yards. Even with only four targets last week, Cooper is second in the NFL in targets (55), ahead of Hopkins and Diggs, and his 500 air yards are good for ninth. Gallup remains the longer-play guy, as his 17.2 aDOT leads the Cowboys and his 465 air yards are the second-most despite only 28 targets, which are 12 fewer than Lamb. Gallup is probably the least popular of the three, with fantasy players likely splitting between Cooper and Lamb.

In terms of cheaper plays, it seems more likely people will look toward Kansas City than Arizona, as Christian Kirk ($4,500 DK, $5,600 FD), Larry Fitzgerald ($3,700 DK, $4,900 FD) and Andy Isabella ($3,400 DK, $4,800 FD) just don't seem to move the needle much, especially with how short their targets tend to be. Instead, Mecole Hardman ($4,200 DK, $5,400 FD) could be popular in place of the injured Sammy Watkins, while Demarcus Robinson ($3,300 DK, $5,200 FD) isn't bad if he gets more opportunities, and Byron Pringle ($3,000 DK, $4,800 FD) is theoretically there for anyone making of ton of lineups.

We also can't ignore a guy who has scored at least 9.8 fantasy points on DraftKings in every game this season and is only $4,300, but no one gets overly excited about Cole Beasley ($5,200 FD). He doesn't get a ton of targets, but he catches nearly all of them to get there in cash games. Fantasy players seem much more likely to target John Brown ($4,000 DK, $5,800 FD) if he can overcome his knee injury -- he's officially listed as questionable -- as his 13.7 aDOT leads the team among receivers who have actually caught a pass this season. If he can't play, Gabriel Davis ($3,500 DK, $4,900 FD) makes for an interesting option as Allen's deep-ball threat, especially after catching five of nine targets for 58 yards last week. Davis has topped 55 yards or caught a touchdown in four straight games, and while he probably doesn't make sense in cash games, he's certainly a good salary-saver for GPPs.

TIGHT ENDS

Travis Kelce, KC at BUF  ($6,900 DK, $7,900 FD): Similarly to the running backs, there's Kelce and there's everyone else. He is the most expensive tight end on DraftKings by $2,600 and on FanDuel by $2,700, with the Cowboys' Dalton Schultz ($4,300 DK, $5,200 FD) the next highest. Kelce's 405 receiving yards are more than any other player at his position this season, while only Darren Waller has more receptions (34 to 32) and targets (47 to 46) and only Mark Andrews has more air yards (354 to 329). The difficulty with Kelce is only about his price, as he's also more expensive than any wide receiver not named "Hopkins" on DraftKings, as well as more than all but Hopkins and Hill on FanDuel. Then again, he's coming off a game against Las Vegas when he caught eight of 12 targets for 108 yards and a touchdown, so the upside is obviously there. 

Schultz is fine as a salary saver, though he's firmly behind Cooper, Lamb, Elliott and Gallup for targets, so you have to wonder how many times Dalton would have to throw to make him worthwhile. If anything, it might be better to save the salary with Tyler Kroft ($3,200 DK, $4,500 FD), who is expected to start in place of the injured Dawson Knox (calf), or even the Cardinals' Dan Arnold ($3,000 DK, $4,400 FD). The biggest issue with Arnold is that the Cardinals just don't use tight ends much in their passing offense other than to block, while Kroft doesn't seem to have Allen's attention at all. But if you aren't playing Kelce, the salary funds seem better spent on a pure punt than on Schultz, which would make him a decent differential play.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Just play the Bills and hope for the best. Honestly, on a four-game slate and the ridiculous variance associated with defense/special teams, I don't know how you make a reasonable case for any of these defenses or an argument why there's one that you definitely shouldn't play. Make the rest of your lineups and jam in the defense that fits.