Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Vikings vs. Bears

Sunday night's matchup between the Ravens and Patriots had one of the lowest game totals of Week 10, and we get another low one Monday night as the Vikings travel to Chicago as 3.0-point favorites in a game with a 43.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. Only one team in the NFC has allowed fewer points than the Bears, who come in on a three-game losing streak after starting 5-1, while the 3-5 Vikings won each of their last two, which came against their other divisional foes in Green Bay and Detroit. Due to some injuries to important Bears players, the Vikings come in expected to win, but that doesn't mean we'll see a ton of Minnesota stacks in most lineups.

DALVIN COOK

It's tough to look at anything before we discuss Dalvin Cook ($13,600 DK, $17,500 FD), by far the most expensive player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Cook has simply been one of the best offensive players in the NFL this season, leading the league in rushing touchdowns (12) and rushing yards per game (122.6), and while he is second in total rushing yards (858), it's only because he's played two fewer games than league-leader Derrick Henry, who has 88 more rushing yards on 57 more attempts.

Cook has scored at least one touchdown in every game this season, and he's rushed for at least 130 yards four times, including each of the past two, a span that saw him rush 52 times for 369 yards and five touchdowns while also adding four catches on five targets for 110 receiving yards. He is one of the most expensive players we've see on both sites this entire season, but it's all for good reason thanks to his remarkable production.

If you want to find a negative it's that the Bears have held running backs to under 90 yards in three of the last four games, including 68 to Henry last week, but it's just tough to look at that and expect Cook to be shut down. Of course, fading Cook is certainly a viable strategy in GPPs because he'll be so popular, and opening up the salary could be enough to get closer to a unique lineup needed for a solo first-place finish.

QUARTERBACKS

Neither quarterback in this game is in the top 20 highest-scoring players at their position, but that doesn't mean they won't be targeted Monday night. Kirk Cousins ($10,200 DK, $14,500 FD) is the second-most expensive player on FanDuel and third-most on DraftKings despite throwing only 34 passes in the past two games combined, and he's only thrown more than 27 in a game twice this season. On the plus side, he's been effective with his limited throws, passing for multiple touchdowns in five games, including three last week on only 20 attempts.

The biggest difficulty is the matchup, as the Bears have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, holding all of them under 300 yards and three touchdowns. Each of the past three (Jared Goff, Drew Brees and Ryan Tannehill) passed for two touchdowns, so while we could garner some optimism there in terms of Cousins, they threw 33, 41 and 21 passes, respectively, with really only one of those close to what Cousins has been doing lately. He's a natural pivot for those who want to fade Cook because if the passing game is more successful than the running game then theoretically Cousins is more effective than Cook, but most people are unlikely to go there. In fact, we might see more people play Cook and one of the Vikings' wide receivers than Cousins since they can do a lot with only a handful of plays while a quarterback usually needs many more.

From a matchup perspective, Nick Foles ($9,800 DK, $13,500 FD) is in a nice spot against a Vikings defense that's allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, including zero rushing touchdowns allowed and the seventh-fewest rushing yards to the position. The latter point is important for Foles because he's rushed 13 times for one yard this season, so he'll need to do his damage through the air. He is coming off his most prolific game of the season, completing 36-of-52 passes for 335 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans, his first game this season with more than 275 yards, while the Vikings have allowed more than 275 in all but two games. Additionally, quarterbacks have thrown for 12 touchdowns in the past four games against the Vikings, so you might start to feel a little optimistic about Foles, at least more so than Cousins. Given that the Bears are at home and Foles isn't that expensive, he could be a fairly popular flex play, and even a captain/MVP option for those who don't want to pay $20,400 for Cook on DraftKings with the salary multiplier.

RUNNING BACKS

Cook obviously dominates the Vikings' backfield, which doesn't leave a whole lot for backup Alexander Mattison ($3,000 DK, $7,500 FD), who has gotten double-digit carries thrice this season, including once when Cook was out. He was able to get a dozen carries last week against Detroit, but that was mostly because the game was out of hand (thanks to Cook), and there's really no reason to expect a lot of production as long as Cook is healthy. Going further down the depth chart leaves you with guys who have gotten basically no work recently, including C.J. Ham ($600 DK, $5,000 FD), Mike Boone ($300 DK, $5,500 FD) and Ameer Abdullah ($300 DK, $5,000 FD), the latter of whom scored on a 21-yard catch on his only offensive snap last week. With Cook healthy, it seems highly unlikely Abdullah will have a role suitable for fantasy rosters, especially against a defense that's allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season.

The Bears' backfield is about as messy as possible, as David Montgomery will not play because of a concussion and Tarik Cohen remains out with a torn ACL. Their absences leave Cordarrelle Patterson ($7,800 DK, $8,000 FD) as the only active player with more than one rushing attempt this season other than Foles. The issue is that Patterson is basically a wide receiver who happens to be the No. 2 running back for the Bears, so while he has 29 carries for 88 yards this season, he's had more than four rushing attempts once this year, which was Week 2 against the Giants when he rushed seven times for 25 yards. What seems more likely is that the Bears split their backfield touches between Ryan Nall ($6,200 DK, $10,000 FD), Artavis Pierce ($1,800 DK, $5,000 FD) and Lamar Miller ($200 DK, not on FanDuel), who is expected to be called up from the practice squad Monday.

Miller has the most career carries among the group, but he also hasn't played since the end of the 2018 season because of a torn ACL that made him miss all of last year. Nall is certainly priced like he'll be the guy the Bears turn to even though he hasn't gotten a single rushing attempt this season. On the plus side, he caught all four of his targets for 35 yards and a touchdown last week, so even if he doesn't get a lot of carries, he presumably could be an option in the passing game. Pierce has only played one offensive snap this season while mostly being a healthy inactive, and his low price is probably accurate in terms of expected production. From a matchup standpoint, the Vikings have only allowed one rushing touchdown to a running back in the past four games, so it's not like we need to have exposure to the Bears' backfield, especially since it has so many question marks. Fantasy players who make a lot of lineups will surely try to have exposure to at least one of them, with Nall likely being the most popular because he is presumably going to get the first opportunities if they don't go to Patterson.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

As if the Bears didn't have enough injury issues, top wide receiver Allen Robinson ($10,800 DK, $13,000 FD) is questionable to play because of a knee injury and is likely to be a game-time decision. His role in the passing game is huge, as he's sixth in the NFL in targets (86), 11th in receptions (57) and ninth in receiving yards (712) despite playing one fewer game than some of the players ahead of him. Facing a Vikings defense that's allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including a league-high 16 touchdowns, Robinson will surely be popular if he is cleared to play. If he's not, Darnell Mooney ($6,600 DK, $8,500 FD) could be on many more rosters, as he leads the team with a 14.8 aDOT, the third-highest average in the league among players with as many as his 54 targets.

Mooney has been getting decent opportunities lately, with 24 targets in the past three games, including 11 just last week, though he's still looking for his real breakout, as his Week 8 showing against New Orleans has been his high point when he caught five of six targets for 69 yards and a touchdown. Even if Robinson is active, Mooney should surely be a heavy consideration because of his reduced price and wonderful matchup.

No. 3 wide receiver Anthony Miller ($4,800 DK, $7,000 FD) has been pretty active too, catching 13 of 19 targets for 132 yards in the past two games, and he should be expected to see that high level of opportunities if Robinson is held out. Miller's 9.7 aDOT shows us that he doesn't run the types of routes that Mooney does, so he'll likely need more targets to potentially reach Mooney's ceiling (for reference, Robinson's aDOT is 10.3 on his team-high 882 air yards). A Robinson absence could theoretically get more snaps for Riley Ridley ($1,200 DK, $5,000) and maybe Dwayne Harris ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), though they should probably only be in the player pool for those who make a ton of lineups.

The tight end situation is pretty touchdown dependent, which is usually the case anyway, with Jimmy Graham ($7,200 DK, $9,500 FD) priced to the point where he needs to get into the end zone to make his salary worth it. Graham actually leads the team in receiving touchdowns (five) this season, including one last week, but he has also reached 60 receiving yards just once, which was in Week 2 against Atlanta when he caught six of 10 targets for 60 yards and two scores. Backup Cole Kmet ($800 DK, $6,000 FD) isn't expected to get many opportunities, and that's only if he's able to overcome the groin injury that has him officially questionable to play.

Robinson surely figures to be a popular captain/MVP, especially given the running back situation with the Bears, but Mooney could be a solid alternative because his lower salary allows you some more flexibility.

The Minnesota pass-catching group is dominated by their top two wide receivers: Adam Thielen ($10,000 DK, $14,000 FD) and Justin Jefferson ($8,600 DK, $12,000 FD), who have accounted for half of the team's total targets. Both players have big-play upside, with Thielen leading the team in targets (58), receptions (47), receiving touchdowns (seven) air yards (774) and aDOT (13.3), while Jefferson is second in each of those categories while leading the team in receiving yards (627). Thielen hasn't been that productive recently, with eight catches on 14 targets for 116 yards and one touchdown in the past three games, a span that included two down games for Jefferson as well, though he was huge in Week 6 against Atlanta (they were off in Week 7) when he caught nine of 11 targets for 166 yards and two touchdowns. They are likely to be the Vikings' most popular pass catchers in this game, though we can't ignore that the Bears have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the second-fewest receptions, fifth-fewest receiving yards and fewest receiving touchdowns. 

Contrarian players will note that two of the three wide receiver touchdowns came in the past three games, but paying so much for Thielen in an extremely tough matchup doesn't seem ideal, so we could see more people moving to Jefferson simply because of the salary savings. But because they aren't expected to do much, contrarian players will certainly consider using Thielen and Jefferson in the captain/MVP spots, which is a fairly high-risk maneuver against a very tough defense.

The Vikings aren't without their own injury problems, as tight end Irv Smith, who is third on the team in targets (21), air yards (168) and receiving touchdowns (two) is out with a groin injury, presumably opening up more opportunities for Kyle Rudolph ($3,400 DK, $6,000 FD). It's not that Rudolph was a backup, however, as he actually has more receiving yards and receptions than Smith this season, though even with an increased workload he's still extremely touchdown dependent to make any meaningful fantasy impact.

You can go further down the depth chart for some punt plays, but it's tough to see a path for guys like Chad Beebe ($1,000 DK, $5,000 FD), Bisi Johnson ($1,400 DK, $5,000 FD), Dan Chisena ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), K.J. Osborn ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) and Tajae Sharpe ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) playing enough snaps, running enough routes or getting enough targets to be useful, with Beebe and Johnson likely to get the most playing time of the group.

KICKERS

A lower-scoring game will put both kickers in play because of their floors, especially if both offenses can move the ball but not punch it into the end zone. Chicago's Cairo Santos ($3,800 DK, $8,500 FD) has scored fewer than 5.0 fantasy points just once this season, and he's scored at least 13.0 in half of his last four games. That kind of floor is pretty attractive given his price on DraftKings, though he is the same price as Mooney and more expensive than Patterson on FanDuel, so he will likely be overlooked there.

The Vikings' Dan Bailey ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) is interestingly more expensive despite zero field-goal attempts in the past three games, though when your offense is scoring nine touchdowns in that span I guess we can understand it. That kind of touchdown success will be much tougher to come by Monday night, even as a slight favorite, so theoretically Bailey could have a solid floor if the Vikings get down field but the Bears don't let them score touchdowns. As always, the kickers will be more of a consideration in cash games than GPPs, as they need five or six opportunities to get a high-enough score to outweigh a long touchdown catch or run.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The defenses are priced closely on DraftKings, with the Bears ($3,200 DK) only slightly ahead of the Vikings ($3,000 DK) despite being an underdog. After scoring double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back games, the Bears didn't force a single turnover in their past two, recording just four sacks in that span. That streak could end Monday night, however, as only one quarterback in the league has thrown more interceptions than Cousins, who admittedly didn't turn the ball over in the past two games.

Minnesota has been solid defensively, with five turnovers in the past three, though Foles has only one game this season with multiple turnovers, and that came against the Rams' elite pass defense. Given the plethora of injury issues with the Bears, we could see some interest in the Vikings defense, but they aren't likely to be popular enough that an explosive game would hurt you in cash games and single-entry GPPs. Given some of the big games we've seen from the Bears defense over the years, using them as captain on DraftKings isn't out of the question, and while it isn't likely to be popular by any means, it'll probably still be more so than the Vikings.