This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Bets: Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds, Player Props, and Best Bets for Monday Night Football Week 8
Last article: 6-7, -1.39 units
Season: 55-68, -19.00 units
NFL Odds for Browns vs. Bengals
Spread: Bengals -3.0
Moneylines: Bengals -175; Browns +145
NFL Player Props for Browns vs Bengals
Nick Chubb over 81.5 rushing yards, -110 (FanDuel)
This seems like a relatively light number for Chubb, as he has surpassed this total in 6-of-7 games this year, averaging 5.9 yards per carry on heavy volume. In fact, he's covered this total by 10+ yards in five of those six games, and by 30+ yards in four of those six games. We're also picking up a good price here (relative to other sportsbooks), with DraftKings listing Chubb a couple of yards higher, with juice listed 20 cents higher (-130 on the over). If you're going to bet this one, be sure and grab it early, as prices tend to rise throughout the day in these TNF and MNF island games.
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Nick Chubb anytime touchdown, -115 (DraftKings)
Similar to his success rate in yardage props, Chubb has scored a touchdown in 5-of-7 games this year, with multiple TD's in two of those games. The beauty of Chubb props is that you don't have to worry about his usage, as he's clearly the center point of this offense, and will almost certainly be getting the ball near the goal line, while also being a threat to score from longer distances. The only thing I worry about with Chubb tonight is that the Browns have stated publicly this week they're willing to trade Kareem Hunt (with the trade deadline coming tomorrow), so they may try to showcase Hunt tonight in order to attract better offers. Even with that being the case though, Hunt will clearly being playing second fiddle to Chubb in this game.
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Tee Higgins over 5.5 receptions, -113 (FanDuel)
Higgins takes over this week as the Bengals clear WR1 after the injury to Ja'Marr Chase, and he should see heavy volume in this game. Note that Chase produced solid games on the two occasions where Higgins was out this year, catching 10-of-16 targets in the opener vs. Pittsburgh (when Higgins left early), then catching 7-of-12 targets when Higgins sat out vs. Baltimore. It seems a pretty safe bet that Higgins can catch six passes tonight on what figures to be double-digit targets, especially with Burrow being among the more accurate QB's in the league. It's also notable that Higgins performed very well in his (and Burrow's) rookie season before Ja'Marr Chase was on the team, with Higgins essentially matching fellow rookie WR Justin Jefferson early in the year before Higgins suffered an injury and missed some time. Expecting a solid ballgame from Higgins tonight, despite the additional attention he'll no doubt be receiving from the Browns' defense.
Tee Higgins over 79.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
I don't like this one as much as his receptions prop, but I think it's still a good play with Higgins expected to receive heavy volume tonight. Much like Chase, Higgins is capable of producing big plays at any time, logging 25+ yard catches in half his games this year while averaging 14.7 yards per catch. It may be hard to keep him under this total on what could be a dozen targets.
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Note: The other receiver I like tonight is Browns TE Harrison Bryant (no props available yet), as he'll be taking over the starting role from highly-active TE David Njoku, who had consistently been covering his prop totals before being injured last week. I would expect similar production from Bryant tonight, probably at smaller numbers than we were laying with Njoku. Keep your eyes open for Harrison Bryant props, assuming they pop up later in the day.
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