This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Futures Bets: Expert Picks for NFL MVP, Super Bowl, and Player Awards
The NFL season is upon us. It's a great time of the year, most would argue it's better than Christmas, Thanksgiving, or that one time I met and stalked Barry Bonds around the Atlantis when I was eight. While we look forward to those amazing Sunday afternoons bumming around in front of the TV like a degenerate for 12 hours, any real bettor will tell you the real money is not won on the game-to-game bets during the year. It's won in the futures markets. That's been my bread and butter for years, so I feel compelled to share with you some of my favorites for 2023.
Get into all the NFL futures here at RotoWire with the latest NFL odds for everything from Super Bowl odds and NFL MVP odds to NFL passing interception leader odds. Kick off the NFL season at BetMGM with the BetMGM bonus code for a $200 bonus offer.
NFL MVP Best Bet
- Jalen Hurts +1200 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Jalen Hurts truly burst onto the scene in 2022 after a marvelous campaign that ended in heartbreaking fashion in the tight shootout loss to Kansas City. That wasn't on QB1 though, as he amassed a remarkable 374 total yards and four tuddies, which capped off one hell of a season. After racking up over 4,400 total yards and 35 scores (in 15 games), Hurts finished second in the voting by a large margin to the rightful winner, Patrick Mahomes. What will he do for an encore?
It's no secret Philly played a ridiculously easy schedule last year, and while 2023 should be exponentially more difficult, I still believe Hurts is in line for another monster season. The Eagles pose one of the most elite offenses in the NFL, with playmaking stars everywhere. I don't envision the statistical profile to see a drop-off, an improvement if anything. Philly was up big on most teams last year after the first half or three quarters, and ended up coasting the rest of the way, which capped some of Hurts' potential to rack up more stats. With a more competitive slate of competition, he should be allowed to continue running the offense more aggressively. The receiving options like A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert make it almost impossible to shut down this offense, then add in new acquisitions like D'Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny out of the backfield. Obviously, Hurts can still crush you with his legs. Defending this offense for 60 minutes is more than a chore, so the production should spike even more this year.
The main thing when betting the MVP market, traditionally a QB award, is to focus on selecting a team that likely finishes as the one or two seed in their respective conference. Since 2009, a QB of the one or two seed has won the award in every single year except 2012 when Adrian Peterson took it home in 2012. While the AFC is loaded with talented teams and signal callers, the NFC is much more wide open. The common theory is the Eagles, 49ers, and maybe Dallas truly pose a threat as a Super Bowl contender this year, making an easier task for a QB like Jalen Hurts. QB's like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert are all capable, but hanging in the +600 to +900 range. Hurts at +1200 is a bargain.
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NFL Offensive Player of the Year Pick
- Ja'Marr Chase +1100 at DraftKings Sportsbook
This award was one of my big preseason futures hits in 2022 after forecasting Justin Jefferson to capture this honor. Something about Ja'Marr Chase following along in his college teammates' footsteps seems like deja vu, and the market agrees. Chase has been an animal in his first two NFL seasons out of LSU averaging 84 catches, 1,250 yards, and 11 scores in only 29 games. Like Jefferson, year three may be where he really takes off into the stratosphere.
Chase may have been in the OPOY conversation last year, but missing five contests pretty much vetoes that. One of the many things that makes him so attractive is the knowledge that he is always a threat to be among the league leaders in targets, as he saw at least 10 looks in nine of his 12 contests last season. The talent, along with an elite QB, is apparent, but when you add in the heavy volume he will most certainly see then it becomes obvious just what kind of stats he can rack up. Additionally, the great thing about Chase is he's an extremely tough matchup, so there's very few corners that can lock him down, especially in man coverage (seventh most routes run in man in 2022). With Joe Burrow reportedly looking and feeling great, the sky is truly the limit for Ja'Marr Chase this season. And while there are plenty of candidates to challenge him for this award, especially wide outs, a full slate of games would all but ensure Chase is at least in the conversation at the end of the season. So long as he cleans up the drops (led league last season with 10), the LSU product should be looking at his first nuclear campaign.
Should he end up a bit behind the eight ball for the first few months of the season, keep in mind he has an extremely favorable finish to the season against the Colts, Vikings, Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns that could offer great buy back value. The other player I'm in love with for this honor at a much better price is Garrett Wilson at +2500.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Pick
- Anthony Richardson +700 at FanDuel
Much has been discussed about this award over the summer. There are plenty of suitors out there, but one that really interests me is the Colts new QB1, Anthony Richardson. An absolute freak at the QB position, the Florida Gator product draws a lot of shades of Cam Newton. Standing at 6'4" 245 lbs, Richardson is bigger and faster than Derrick Henry, but can also throw the ball like Josh Allen. The physical tools are all there for him to be an immediate impact player for the Colts in year one.
Of course, there is a lot he probably needs to work on in the passing department. At Florida, he registered a career 54.7% passer with 15 picks to 24 touchdowns. Some of the throws were wildly inaccurate. There's no question he will likely have growing pains this season, but the upside is definitely there. Since 2010, six QBs have won this award, and all of them eclipsed at least a 60% completion rate, but the last four (Griffin, Murray, Prescott, Herbert) were all over 64%. Luckily, Indy has some strong options in the pass game like Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. Richardson's rushing upside would be the component that drives his candidacy, but the passing aspect needs to at least be solid. With Richardson, there's so much flair and big play ability that it could give him a little kick with the voters. However, one negative off the bat is Indy is expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, so if a rookie on another team is a driving force to help his squad make the playoffs, that could be a tiebreaker he would lose.
Bijan Robinson is probably in for a big rookie season, but grabbing him at +300 before the year starts is not something I'm interested in right now. Richardson in my opinion has the most upside among all rookie QBs, so grabbing 8/1 is a solid value. This will likely be an award I dip back into throughout the year, but locking down a good number on a good candidate is where my head is going into Week 1.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pick
- Micah Parsons +450 (Consensus)
I really don't mean to be picking a lot of the favorites, but it just kind of happened that way. Micah Parsons to win the DPOY is one of my favorite futures of the season. It usually ends up being a great race with all of the talent this league has to offer.
Parsons has been dubbed the Lawrence Taylor of this generation, and quite frankly it's hard to argue that. Aside from insane highlight reel plays and big-time stats, the guy does so much that does not show up in the stat sheet. He is already regarded as arguably the most valuable non-QB in the NFL. He has so much respect around the league and with the voters that they would pretty much roll with him if it's a tight race. Plus having that star on his helmet doesn't hurt either. There's so much narrative surrounding him, he's a hard guy to not bet. Statistically, Parsons does not have to be a guy to lead the league in sacks to win, so long as nobody gaps him like Nick Bosa did a season ago. Micah finished seventh in sacks in 2022 (13.5) and still was voted ahead of every other player that had more sacks than he did (except for Bosa). The thing that really makes me want to bet on him is the fact that voters might look at this year as a "makeup call" type of season after not winning it last year or as a rookie. So long as he finishes with at least similar numbers as last year, and nobody else outpaces him in sacks too heavily, Parsons should once again find himself at the top of the ballet in 2023.
This will also be a market I would look to buy back into should Parsons fall behind early in the year. A lot of times, it only takes one big game for him to completely change the shape of this market. If taking this big of a favorite does not interest you, I'm a fan of TJ Watt at +800 and Maxx Crosby at +2500 as other investments in the portfolio. Keep something else in mind when betting this award, since 2011 only one non-front seven player won this award, and it was Stephon Gilmore in 2019.
NFL Receptions Leader
- Amon-Ra St. Brown +1100 at FanDuel Sportsbook
A big thing with betting in any capacity is the number you give it out at. Over the weekend, I tweeted this out at +1800 and stated a write up was coming on my twitter (and no, I will not be calling it 'X'.") Regardless, most of you probably missed that, but in good faith, I am going to give out the best of the remaining number.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is blossoming into a superstar before our very eyes. And in the Detroit offense that relentlessly feeds him targets, he is the perfect candidate for this play when you factor in the odds. ARSB picked up 106 grabs last year in technically 16 games, even though it was really 15+. He finished 9th in targets despite not playing the entire season. Ideally, when you're looking to pick the right player in this bet, you want a guy who sees heavy volume and catches a lot of short/intermediate passes. The Sun God had a 6.2 ADOT (average depth of target) in 2022, which is a huge reason why he catches so many passes. Working out of the slot is a huge plus as well because he often sees a nickel corner and not the defenses' top option. St. Brown is not only the top option in Detroit, but it's not really close. A great aspect of playing in this Lions' offense is not only that they were fifth in the league in scoring last year (26.6 PPG), but the defense is atrocious (allowed third PPG last year at 25.1 PPG), so they will be throwing the ball a ton. It also doesn't hurt that 12 of the 17 games will be played in doors. There's a lot of potential for ARSB in 2023.
In my opinion, 120 catches is the benchmark to be in the conversation to win this. In the last 20 years, 130 catches would be enough to lead the league in catches in all but three seasons. St. Brown should definitely be in the mix in 2023. This is at the top of this list for my favorite futures this season. Both Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler are interesting longshots at +8000 as well.
Super Bowl Winner
Cincinnati Bengals +1100 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ahh, the moment we've all been waiting for, the Super Bowl pick. To me, this is usually one of the more focused bets available each year. Before I even look at the odds, only a small handful of teams jump out to me as potential winners. It's a pretty short list at the end of it all. Enter the Cincinnati Bengals, a team that has been right there the last couple years.
The reality is the AFC is so loaded that the winner is usually coming out of that side of the bracket with seven of the last 11 winners being from that conference. The last couple of seasons there has been one or two dominant NFC teams that have been able to capture the Lombardi Trophy. When you break down the AFC, there's one common theme that is a necessity to look at, who can beat Kansas City? The list would probably come back as the Bills, Chargers, maybe the Ravens, and the Bengals. No team has had more success against Kansas City in the last few years than Cincy, winning three of the last four contests. The formula has been the elite connection of Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase with Tee Higgins added in. The defense has come through in big moments to serve as a complement. When you watch the Bengals in January, there's just something about this team that makes you believe a Super Bowl is coming sooner than later. With big contracts on the horizon for some of their young stars, this could be the last chance they have. When I look at Buffalo, a team I never really believed in, I believe their window has passed. When I look at Baltimore, I don't truly believe Lamar Jackson is capable of winning a ring, especially with some of the deficiencies of that offense and aging defense. When I see the Chargers, I don't trust Brandon Staley at the helm, despite the vast array of talent and potential they have. It is Cincy's turn to raise the banners.
+1100 is a good number for bettors to get involved in preseason. There's obviously been a lot of concern about Joe Burrow's health, but reports are he is good to go for 2023. Regardless, as long as they are in position for a final stretch, I feel confident. If you're looking for a team with better odds, maybe the Chargers finally cash in on all of the talent they have. For me, it's Cincy or bust this year.
