This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Future Bets: Best Steelers Futures for 2023
Steelers playoff chances. That's always a hot topic. As most people know, coach Mike Tomlin does not have losing teams. In the current NFL structure where seven teams make the playoffs, the Steelers were fighting for a playoff spot going into Week 18 last year. Ultimately, a tiebreaker loss to the Dolphins kept Pittsburgh out despite a 9-8 record. Since the league went to a 17-game schedule in 2021, a team has made the playoffs with nine wins each year. So, if Mike Tomlin does what he typically does, the Steelers have a great chance to play meaningful football in mid-January.
Despite the history of Tomlin and this franchise, DraftKings Sportsbook is convinced this is not a playoff team. They are priced at +135 to make the postseason. However, they are -155 to miss the playoffs for the second-straight season. What's the verdict?
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AFC North: A Tough Division
The Steelers and Ravens used to own this division almost every year until recently. The Bengals showed up to the party since Joe Burrow entered the league. Now, the Browns added Deshaun Watson and made major additions to their pass rush and run defense. It's likely not close that the Steelers have the weakest quarterback in the division. Also, as a team that has won with their defense over the decades, they still are very good, but they may not have a major edge on their division rivals.
As recently as a few years ago, the Steelers were expected to win more games than they lost in their division. There's a fair chance that they will win half or less of their divisional games in 2023.
Can the Steelers Offense Make a Leap?
Over the last few years, the Steelers took a struggling offensive line and revamped it. This unit may not be elite. However, they are a solid unit. The team used the 14th pick in this year's draft to select left tackle Broderick Jones. If Jones clicks right away, this line could see a higher ceiling than anticipated.
In terms of the pass-catching weapons, this group is very talented. If George Pickens is unlocked, he has true superstar potential as a boundary receiver. Very few possession WRs have the resume that Diontae Johnson has built, and he can do more than that if needed. With Pat Freiermuth patrolling the middle of the field, the Steelers have a varied group of weapons. It's also possible that Calvin Austin and/or Allen Robinson can add additional firepower.
Although the running game may not be dominant, it is certainly good enough to balance the offense. The rushing attack would benefit if the passing attack earns the consistent respect of opposing defenses.
Yes, that brings us to the QB position. The most impactful position in professional sports. In the AFC, there are many elite QBs. There could be as many as eight of them in the conference this year. Kenny Pickett made strides as the season went on last year. He also showed the ability to help Pittsburgh come back from deficits. But there's film out on Pickett that teams have been able to study. Is he going to make a 'Year Two' jump? Or did he fall to the middle of the first round of the 2022 draft for a reason?
Your stance on Pickett is crucial in determining the Steelers' playoff odds. Personally, I like him as a game manager. However, I don't see him as a difference-maker right now.
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Steelers Defensive Turnover
The good news is that the Steelers will continue to be led by T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Cameron Heyward and Alex Highsmith. Pittsburgh tried to address their pass coverage by signing Patrick Peterson and drafting Joey Porter. However, Peterson is 33 years old and benefitted from the zone scheme he played in Minnesota recently. Also, Porter fell to the second round of the draft after committing a big number of penalties in coverage while at Penn State. At linebacker, veterans Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts were brought in with the expectation of playing inside.
Overall, there is proven high-end talent. But there will be a number of new faces. It may take time for them to gel. It's also possible that it takes them a year to completely figure things out.
Steelers Schedule
Outside of their conference, the Steelers will face the NFC West along with the Packers. Having games against the Cardinals and Rams is definitely a positive. It also is favorable that they play in Pittsburgh against Green Bay. Aside from a tough matchup with the 49ers, traveling to Seattle won't be ideal.
Of course, the AFC division on the schedule is the AFC South, and the games against the Titans and Jaguars will be played at home, which is a solid advantage for the Steelers. The other non-divisional conference games are at home against the Patriots and at the Raiders. Overall their AFC schedule outside of the division appears favorable.
Best Steelers Bet This Season
Steelers to Miss Postseason (-155 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
It's never a good bet to go against Mike Tomlin having a losing season. In each of the past two years, their nine wins have had them in the playoff mix. In 2021, they made it in, but in 2022, they didn't.
I do expect their offense to be a bit better this year. Continued improvement along the line will make an impact. Also, we could see some improvement from Pickett.
All that said, the AFC is a numbers game. I expect the Browns and Jets to make significant improvement this season. The Dolphins are also a dangerous team, potentially on both sides of the ball. My projections have the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Ravens, Chargers and the AFC South winner making the playoffs. That leaves one spot. At that point, I would prefer to bet on the quarterback, and of that group, the Steelers may be the weakest.
The juice is a bit tough at -155, but it seems probable to me that the Steelers can finish over .500 but miss the playoffs.
