This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The Bears look like a team on the rise. Justin Fields showed signs of being a playmaker at QB. They brought in DJ Moore to give them a legitimate No. 1 receiver. They also used a combination of draft picks and free agency spending to upgrade one of the worst defenses in the league. But after having the worst record in the league last year, how much progress is realistic this year?
It's clear that DraftKings Sportsbook expects the Bears to be significantly better. Chicago has a posted win total of seven. They have -130 odds to win seven or fewer games and +110 odds to win at least eight contests. I will outline the case for betting that the Bears go under the 7.5 win total.
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Excitement But Uncertainty on Offense
- It all starts with Justin Fields. After not being heavily utilized as a runner early in the season, he went on a tear. The second-year QB ended the year with 1,143 rushing yards, which was the second most a quarterback had in NFL history. However, Fields was not called upon to throw often. The signal-caller didn't attempt more than 28 passes in any contest. As a result, he threw for over 190 yards just twice.
- Going into this year, the team needs to know if Fields is the long-term answer. Expect more passing this season. Although the Bears had one of the worst pass-blocking lines in the league last year, they should be better. Last year's fifth-round pick, tackle Braxton Jones played well and could improve. The team used the 10th pick in the draft to select tackle Darnell Wright. They also added guard Nate Davis in free agency to pair with returning guard Teven Jenkins, who was solid in 2022. (Note: Jenkins could miss time in September with a leg injury). The running game lacks elite talent, but the trio of Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson has potential. Finally, DJ Moore will give Fields the high-end receivers that QBs need. The addition of Moore will allow Darnell Mooney to move into a more favorable No. 2 role.
- A case can be made that this offense is ready to explode. But there is also a case to be made that it could take a year for this unit to reach its potential due to all of the turnover on the roster. The practical approach is to expect them to be volatile.
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Will the New Look Defense Be Good?
- No matter how you look at it, the Bears had one of the worst defenses in the league last year. They struggled to stop the run. They were mostly unable to produce any tangible pressure on opposing QBs. In the secondary, the coverage was well below average, though in their defense, when there's no pressure, it's difficult for defenders to be successful in the NFL.
- In free agency, Chicago added Yannick Ngakoue and DeMarcus Walker as edge rushers. Although a massive upgrade, this duo may not instill fear in opposing offenses. At linebacker, the Bears paid top dollar for Tremaine Edmunds, who had a career year in Buffalo. They paid more sensible money to solid LB T.J. Edwards. This group could be a team strength, though it's unlikely an elite unit. In the secondary, The team continued to use high draft capital at CB. After drafting Kyler Gordon in 2022, they used a second-round pick on Tyrique Stevenson.
- With all of these new faces, it may take time for them to grow as a unit. But realistically, a best-case scenario would have them performing as an average unit. Even if they improved to being outside the bottom-10 in defense, that would be a good sign. For this year, the defense won't likely shut down many opponents.
Bears Schedule
- Obviously, the Bears will play six games against their divisional opponents from the NFC North. Right now, the Lions seem to be the most solid team in the division, though they're far from a juggernaut. Both the Packers and Vikings are going through change. However, the Packers have a talented roster, and the Vikings may have an excellent passing attack. It's fair to hope the Bears split these six games.
- Also, Chicago plays five games against AFC opponents. It's probably favorable that in the three games in which they could be outmatched, they are on the road. No need to waste a home game on a contest that is unlikely to result in a win. Those games are against the Chiefs, Chargers and Browns. The two home games are against opponents that we're not sure what to expect from, the Raiders and the Broncos. It would feel like a win if the Bears won two of these games against the AFC.
- In addition, the Bears play the NFC South teams. Both the Buccaneers and Panthers are teams in transition. They also are teams that have a good deal of talent on their rosters. The tougher games will likely be against the Saints and Falcons. Both of those teams have flaws, but they likely both have better rosters than Chicago.
- Finally, the last two games are at home against the Cardinals and at the Commanders. The only negative against the Arizona matchup is that it's in Week 16, and it's possible that QB Kyler Murray is near 100%, making that a little tougher than facing them earlier. Although the matchup against the Commanders is fairly neutral, it is at Washington on a short-week Thursday, possibly giving an advantage to the home team.
Best Bears Future Bet For 2023
- Yes, it is an exciting time to be a Bears fan. Justin Fields is an exciting young QB. But make no mistake, this is a team that is in the building process. Especially on defense, they lack superstar players. On offense, there are still many unanswered questions.
- In terms of the schedule, it's not oppressive, but there aren't many games in which the Bears will be solid favorites.
- I am predicting that Chicago will be an inconsistent team. Also, they may not have a roster that can close out games against more talented rosters.
- It seems probable that the Bears will win fewer than eight games. My best futures bet for the 2023 Bears is under 7.5 wins at +110 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
