NFL Game Previews: Monday Night Matchups

MONDAY NIGHT

Baltimore at Tampa Bay (+3.5), o/u 49.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

Since that stunning loss to the Raiders in Week 2, the Ravens have reeled off four consecutive wins and averaged 33.5 points a game by letting Derrick Henry pummel defenses into submission. The former Titan has a TD in every game this season, but during the winning streak he's gotten into the end zone seven times while running for 6.5 yards a carry and putting up more than 140 yards a game on the ground. Rarely do things in the NFL that look ideal on paper work out as well as the marriage between Henry's battering-ram running style and Baltimore's offensive philosophy. Lamar Jackson, naturally, is having a blast working against defenders that have started making business decisions by the third quarter. He's on pace for more than 4,000 passing yards for the first time, and his first 1,000-yard rushing season since 2020. Nobody in NFL history has posted a 4,000/1,000 season, by the way. That offensive eruption has covered for a defense that is simply struggling, especially in the secondary. All the key guys are healthy — the unit simply isn't performing. I've mentioned this before, but the Ravens had an almost unprecedented brain drain on that side of the ball in the offseason. Last year's defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is now head coach in Seattle, but two other assistants, Anthony Weaver and Dennard Wilson, took DC jobs elsewhere (and are doing well in Miami and Tennessee, respectively.) That's left new DC Zach Orr, last year's linebackers coach, without a lot of support.

At 4-2 but with a loss to the Falcons on their ledger, the Bucs are technically in second place in the NFC South, but the division looks like it will be a two-horse race with the Saints falling apart and the Panthers never getting it together in the first place. Baker Mayfield is demonstrating that last year's career-best season might just have been the beginning. He's already got 15 passing TDs in six games, and his 70.9 percent completion rate, 7.9 YPA and nearly 250 yards a game are tracking to be personal bests. Funny how escaping Cleveland brought out the best in him. The Bucs also now have a fun problem to have in the backfield, in that they might have too many starting backs. Rachaad White came into the year as the top guy, but he might be better suited for a passing-down role. In his place last week, rookie RB Bucky Irving turned 16 touches into 105 yards and a touchdown, which would have been impressive except that second-year RB Sean Tucker turned 17 touches into 192 yards and two touchdowns. A fantasy nightmare three-headed committee could be the result, but OC Liam Coen comes from Sean McVay's tree and would probably prefer to have one lead back, so may the best man win. (The best-case scenario here from a fantasy perspective is actually for one of Tucker or Irving to get dealt to the Cowboys, but that's just wishful thinking.) Tampa's actually 0.2 points per game ahead of Baltimore on the season, second only to Detroit, and the defense isn't a whole lot better, so this tilt could see true pinball numbers on the scoreboard.

Key Info

BAL injuries: RB Keaton Mitchell (PUP, knee)
TB injuries: RB Rachaad White (questionable, foot), WR Mike Evans (questionable, hamstring) 

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BAL DFS targets: Isaiah Likely/Mark Andrews
TB DFS targets: Chris Godwin

BAL DFS fades: none
TB DFS fades: Rachaad White/Bucky Irving/Sean Tucker

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop

Henry thunders for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson throws for 240 yards and two TDs, hitting Andrews and Zay Flowers. Irving leads the TB backfield with 60 yards. Mayfield throws for 300 yards and three scores, two to Godwin (who tops 100 yards) and one to Cade Otton. Ravens 31-30

L.A. Chargers at Arizona (+2.5), o/u 43.5- Monday, 9 p.m. EDT

At the very least, Jim Harbaugh has provided some stability for the Chargers. They're a respectable 3-2, and while all three wins have some against iffy opponents and the two losses have come against bona fide playoff contenders, at least neither loss was a blowout. Harbaugh's defense has yet to let anyone to ring up more than 20 points against it, sitting first in PPG allowed at 13.2 despite a rash of injuries in the secondary, and while that has a lot to do with facing QBs like Bryce Young, Gardner Minshew and Bo Nix, Patrick Mahomes didn't exactly light the Bolts up either. J.K. Dobbins has mostly carried the offense, but Justin Herbert is getting healthier and OC Greg Roman has make reassuring noises about letting his QB do more. I am ... skeptical. Roman's in his 11th year as an NFL offensive coordinator; in nine of the 10 previous years, his offense finished in the bottom 5 in pass attempts. So sure, Greg, whatever you say. The Chargers certainly have the look of a wild-card contender, but they're looked like wild-card contenders a lot in recent seasons and only actually gotten there once since 2019. Much like Roman's suggestion that he'll let Herbert off the chain, I will believe this team can get across the finish line when I see it, and not a moment sooner.

The Cardinals may not be the best team in the league, or even in their division, but they're certainly the most volatile. They scored 40-plus in a win over the Rams in Week 2, then turned around and gave up 40-plus in a loss to the Commanders in Week 4. They squeaked out a win over the Niners, then got spanked by the Packers. Kyler Murray runs wild one week, then thinks he's a pocket passer the next. Marvin Harrison looked uncoverable for a while, then got shut down by an undermanned San Francisco secondary. Which version of Jonathan Gannon's crew will show up Monday? How should I know? If there's been one consistent thing about the Cards in 2024, though, it's that they've given up offense by the bucket. Tied for 27th in PPG allowed, 28th in yards per play allowed, 28th in QB rating against and 32nd in third-down defense ... there's a lot of bottom-5 rankings on their ledger. Murray and company are capable of climbing out of that hole, but maybe not often enough to get them to the postseason this year, or save Gannon's job.

Key Info

LAC injuries: RB Gus Edwards (IR, ankle), WR Ladd McConkey (questionable, hip), WR Quentin Johnston (questionable, ankle), WR DJ Chark (IR, groin), TE Hayden Hurst (questionable, groin), EDGE Joey Bosa (questionable, hip)
ARI injuries: WR Michael Wilson (questionable, ankle), K Matt Prater (IR, knee), LB Kyzir White (questionable, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LAC DFS targets: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey
ARI DFS targets: Zay Jones

LAC DFS fades: none
ARI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Dobbins churns out 90 yards and TD. Herbert throws for a season-high 260 yards and two scores, finding McConkey and Joshua Palmer. Conner picks up 80 yards and a touchdown. Murray throws for under 200 yards but finds Trey McBride for a TD and runs in a score himself. Chargers 27-21

SUNDAY A.M.

New England (+5.5) at Jacksonville, o/u 42.5
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EDT

Look, I get it, Patriots fans. It felt like Drake Maye put up more offense in one afternoon than Jacoby Brissett had in five weeks (and he did, kind of — Brissett has only thrown two TDs passes all season). The thing is, Will Levis had an even more spectacular midseason debut last year, and we'll all seen how that's worked out — and Maye doesn't have DeAndre Hopkins to bail him out when he chucks up a deep prayer. Maye's a better prospect than Levis and should be better in the long run, but for now I'm chalking up last week's performance to a Texans team that had a 14-0 lead after the first quarter and was already looking ahead to Green Bay. The Pats' offense should be better than it was, but Maye's decision-making needs to get a lot better before it'll rise to the level of good. (That isn't stopping me from eyeing guys like Kayshon Boutte in my deeper leagues, of course.) The switch at QB might put even more pressure on New England's already stressed defense too, if Maye's turnovers outnumber his TDs. Again, in the long run, a disaster season might be in the best interest of the franchise — get that No. 1 pick and deal it for a draft haul to address all the holes on this roster — but in the here and now, a 1-5 record seem about right.

The Jags are also 1-5, and while they kept things closer against the Texans than the Pats did, ugly losses to the Bills, and the Bears at the beginning of their London residency, highlight just how far from contention this team is. Trevor Lawrence was happy to have Evan Engram back last week and seems to have turned things around, posting a 6:2 TD:INT, 67.6 percent completion rate and 7.6 YPA the last three games, while Tank Bigsby is keeping the running game afloat in place of a banged-up Travis Etienne. The defense though ... yikes — 30th in yards allowed per play, 30th in QB rating against, tied for 29th in takeaways, 31st in PPG allowed, 32nd in red-zone defense ... nothing much is going right for Ryan Nielsen's crew other than the pass rush, which is merely mediocre. Houston's Will Anderson did bring Maye down three times last week, so if Josh Hines-Allen and/or Travon Walker have similar success, things would be a bit easier for Jacksonville on that side of the ball. Otherwise, it will have to rely on home-ish field advantage at Wembley Stadium for any kind of edge.

Key Info

NE injuries: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (questionable, foot), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (IR, pectoral)
JAC injuries: RB Travis Etienne (questionable, hamstring), LB Foyesade Oluokun (IR, foot)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NE DFS targets: Drake Maye, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry
JAC DFS targets: none

NE DFS fades: none
JAC DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 85-95 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Antonio Gibson leads the NE backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD. Maye throws for 240 yards and a second score to Boutte, but he gets sacked five times and picked off twice, one of which Darnell Savage returns to the house. Bigsby leads the JAC backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Lawrence throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas. Jaguars 28-20

EARLY SUNDAY

Seattle (+2.5) at Atlanta, o/u 51.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Six weeks into the season, it's hard to believe that the NFC West is the only division without a team over .500, but here we are. The Seahawks are one of the clubs treading water at 3-3, but only barely as they've lost three consecutive games, including thumpings at the hands of the Lions and 49ers. First-year OC Ryan Grubb's scheme has turned out to be very pass-happy, and Geno Smith leads the NFL in attempts, completions and passing yards. That has DK Metcalf on pace for career-high volume and Jaxon Smith-Njigba on track for nearly 100 receptions. Even Tyler Lockett, banged up and likely on the downside of his career, is still headed for his sixth straight season with 70-plus catches. Kenneth Walker hasn't been left out either, seeing 16 targets the last two games while scoring five rushing TDs in his four starts. Somehow, though, all that production only has the Seahawks 13th in points per game, which doesn't balance out a defense that's 25th in PPG allowed. Injuries have played a big role in that ranking, and it's the secondary getting the worst of it now — not the ideal scenario headed into a rad cash with another pass-happy offense.

The Falcons are riding high after sweeping their first run through the NFC South, going 3-0 against the Saints, Bucs and Panthers the last three weeks and winning by an average of about 33-25. The concerns about Kirk Cousins' health are long gone — since hobbling around the pocket in Week 1, the 36-year-old has completed 67.4 percent of his passes with an 8.0 YPA and 8:3 TD:INT in his last five games. While Drake London has been his top option (three straight games with double-digit targets, leading to 24-292-2), Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts have also had games of more than 80 yards during that win streak. Ray-Ray McCloud has a steady 15-148-0 line on 20 targets during that three-game stretch, and even little-used KhaDarel Hodge had that OT-winning score against Tampa Bay. OC Zac Robinson might have figured out what he has in the backfield with Bijan Robinson, too. Robinson the RB erupted for 105 scrimmage yards and two TDs last week, and while Robinson the OC wasn't on Sean McVay's Rams staff during Todd Gurley's heyday, he was there last year when Kyren Williams broke out. Cousins will need to stay healthy (or maybe he won't — we don't actually know what Michael Penix is capable of yet), but if he does this could easily be a top-5 offense the rest of the way. The defense is last in sacks, but otherwise has been adequate and could get better as the veteran additions Atlanta made this offseason get comfortable.

Key Info

SEA injuries: S Rayshawn Jenkins (IR, hand)
ATL injuries: LB Troy Andersen (out, knee), S Justin Simmons (questionable, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
SEA DFS targets: none
ATL DFS targets: Bijan Robinson

SEA DFS fades: Noah Fant
ATL DFS fades: Falcons DST

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Walker rumbles for 100 yards and a score. Smith throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns, two to Metcalf (who tops 100 yards) and one to Jake Bobo. Robinson responds with 80 combined yards and a TD. Cousins goes off again, throwing for 340 yards and three scores, one each to Mooney, London and Pitts, before leading another game-winning drive in OT. Falcons 34-31

Tennessee (+9.5) at Buffalo, o/u 41.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Will Levis' shouder injury didn't end up costing him a start, but maybe it should have. The second-year QB threw for only 95 yards last week against a Colts defense that had given up more than 300 to Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields in its prior two games, and Levis' status as the Titans' QB of the future is rapidly fading. He leads the NFL with seven interceptions, and that's effectively in only four games — he barely played in Week 5 due to the injury, and Tennessee had its bye in Week 6. The front office gave him Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd in the offseason to join DeAndre Hopkins in what, on paper, is one of the better WR groups in the league, but the only thing Levis has done consistently is suffer from brain cramps, and Ridley might already be fed up with the situation. The defense has allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the league and while pace and game script have something to do with that, the unit is still in the top 10 in QB rating against, and the run defense has held up too. At 1-4 in a division where the Texans are already 5-1, an AFC South title is already pretty much off the table, so the Titans need to decide soon if they want to stay in the wild-card picture — in which case, they have nothing to lose by giving Mason Rudolph a shot — or if they're playing for a high draft pick in 2025 and a franchise quarterback.

After consecutive losses to other AFC division leaders in the Ravens and Texans, the Bills got past the Jets on Monday to keep control of their own patch of turf in the AFC East. Josh Allen has yet to get picked off this season, but his 62.8 percent completion rate would be his lowest since 2019, and he's on pace to fall short of 30 passing TDs for the second straight year. The division has also turned into an arms race, as Buffalo answered Gang Green's acquisition of Davante Adams by picking up Amari Cooper from the Browns. Cooper immediately becomes Allen's top target, and it shouldn't take him any time at all to get up to speed — Cleveland's offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey had that job in Buffalo the last two years. It's a move that should benefit everyone in the passing game, as Khalil Shakir was miscast as a WR1, while inconsistent rookie Keon Coleman can scale back his responsibilities. The big question is, are the Bills done? I have to think they're looking to make a splash addition on the other side of the ball too. The defense has been good, but a step short of elite, and while injuries have played into that, even at full strength the unit might be a player or two short.

Key Info

TEN injuries: QB Will Levis (questionable, shoulder), RB Tyjae Spears (out, hamstring)
BUF injuries: RB Ray Davis (questionable, calf), EDGE Von Miller (out, suspension), LB Matt Milano (IR, biceps)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
TEN DFS targets: Tony Pollard
BUF DFS targets: none

TEN DFS fades: none
BUF DFS fades: Khalil Shakir

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Pollard pops for 120 combined yards and a TD. Levis throws for less than 200 yards but only gets picked off once. James Cook gains 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Allen throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, finding Cooper and Coleman, while also running in a score of his own. Greg Rousseau also scoops up a Levis fumble and returns it to the house. Bills 35-16

Cincinnati at Cleveland (+5.5), o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

These teams might be No. 1 and No. 2 in the "Most Disappointing Teams of 2024" rankings. The Bengals at least seem to have their ship pointed in the right direction. After an 0-3 start they've won two of their last three, with the loss being an OT heartbreaker against the Ravens. It's probably not a coincidence that the surge started around when Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both got back to peak form after delayed/distracted starts to the season. The AFC North isn't out of reach with both Baltimore and Pittsburgh at four wins, but a wild-card spot is still more realistic for Cincy after the team stumbled out of the gates. Joe Burrow saw his streak of three consecutive games with multiple TDs and a 70 percent completion rate or better snapped last week against the Giants, but he ran in his first score of 2024 to make up for it. Chase Brown also appears to be on the verge of taking over the backfield — he has four TDs in the last three weeks, and Zack Moss and his 3.3 YPC in the last five games got benched in the second half against New York after a fumble. The Bengals' offense needs some help from the team's defense at some point, though. Holding a Daniel Jones-led offense to seven points is a good first step, but it was hardly a statement game. Statistically, DC Lou Anarumo's crew hasn't been completely awful, but it isn't generating many splash plays or getting off the field when it needs to (tied for 26th in third-down defense, and no team has allowed more fourth-down conversions.) The Bengals haven't won in Cleveland since Andy Dalton threw four TDs in Week 4 of the 2017 season, but if you want a good omen, that Browns team scored only seven points with Deshaun ... err, DeShone Kizer under center.

The fact that it's even possible to make a DeShone Kizer comparison for Deshaun Watson might be the most damning indictment I can think of. The QB who threw for 33 TDs and 4,823 yards while completing 70.2 percent of his passes with an 8.9 YPA for the Texans in 2020 might as well be a completely different guy. Watson has yet to reach 200 passing yards in a game in 2024, and last week was the first time he topped a 5.5 YPA. You want to read something scary for spooky season? Watson's done all that, and he hasn't even had a bad-weather home game yet. (Incidentally, the Haslems may have given up their efforts to extort a billion dollars or so from taxpayers for a refurbished lakefront stadium and are fleeing to the 'burbs to build a dome, so in five years or so, those games will be a relic of the past.) The Browns are getting Nick Chubb back this week but also traded away Amari Cooper, so they seem to have given up on the idea of getting much production at all through the air. Good thing they aren't paying their QB another guaranteed $92 million through 2026 or anything. Coach Kevin Stefanski hasn't indicated Chubb will be on a set snap count, so the team will probably play it by ear in terms of his workload in his first game action since Week 2 last season. Watson does still have Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku to throw to, so the cupboard isn't completely bare, but his 2.4 completed air yards per attempt is mind-bogglingly bad. Since air yards started being officially tracked in 2018, no quarterback has had a mark that low over a full season.

Key Info

CIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
CLE injuries: RB Nick Chubb (PUP, knee), RB Jerome Ford (out, hamstring), RB Nyheim Hines (NFI, knee), LB Jordan Hicks (questionable, elbow)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CIN DFS targets: Ja'Marr Chase
CLE DFS targets: none

CIN DFS fades: none
CLE DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Brown dashes for 80 yards and a touchdown. Burrow throws for 300 yards and three scores, two to Chase (who tops 100 yards) and one to Higgins. Chubb looks good in his return, running for 90 yards and a TD. Watson throws for less than 200 yards but does hit Jeudy for a touchdown. Bengals 31-17

Houston (+2.5) at Green Bay, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Texans haven't completely pulled away in the AFC South — the Colts are being pesky — but at 5-1, Houston has a firm hold on the division. C.J. Stroud's crew has won three straight, with last week's blowout of the Patriots maybe being their most complete performance this season on both sides of the ball. The running game was dominant, Stroud threw three TDs to three targets in the absence of Nico Collins, and the defense produced four sacks and four turnovers. (Ka'imi Fairbairn did miss a 40-yard FG, but in a 20-point win, he gets a mulligan.) The secondary is missing some guys and has been vulnerable at times, — only the Jags have allowed more passing touchdowns — but the Texans are first in completion rate allowed and top 5 in a bunch of other categories, so in theory that should even out once the defense gets healthy. The Bills are dangerous and adding reinforcements, and you can never count out whoever emerges from the North, but at least to me, the Texans look like the biggest threat to the defending champs in the AFC.

The Packers are 4-2, but they're also residing in the first division of the modern era to see all four of its teams win at least four games through six weeks. That might actually understate how dominant the NFC North has been. By point differential, here are the top four teams in the entire NFL: the Vikings (plus-63), the Lions (plus-60), the Bears (plus-47) and the Packers (plus-41). Jinkies. It's like Goodell's office sent out an email this offseason about making the league even more parity-rific, only they left the NFC North off the BCC list. That gives Green Bay little margin for error. Jordan Love's tossed 10 TDs in three games since returning from his knee injury, but he's also been picked off five times and only completed 61.6 percent of his passes, which by 2024 standards is pretty meh. His receiving corps also can't seem to stay healthy, with four of his top five options (including tight end Tucker Kraft) nursing something or other at the moment. Josh Jacobs has been end zone-averse but is eighth in the league in scrimmage yards, while the defense leads the NFL in takeaways, so if Love tightens things up, the pieces are there for the Packers to go on a run.

Key Info

HOU injuries: WR Nico Collins (IR, hamstring), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (out, knee), LB Henry To'oTo'o (out, concussion), LB Christian Harris (IR, calf)
GB injuries: RB MarShawn Lloyd (IR, ankle), WR Dontayvion Wicks (questionable, shoulder)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
HOU DFS targets: none
GB DFS targets: none

HOU DFS fades: none
GB DFS fades: Tucker Kraft

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind

The Scoop

Joe Mixon manages 60 yards and a receiving TD. Stroud throws for 270 yards and two more touchdowns, hitting Dalton Schultz and Tank Dell. Jacobs piles up 140 combined yards and two scores. Love throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding Jayden Reed and Christian Watson. Packers 34-24

Miami (+3.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Dolphins come out of their bye trying to figure out who they are. Through five games, Miami has yet to score more than 20 points in a game, and Mike McDaniel's formerly high-flying squad is last in the NFL with a measly 12.0 points a game. The loss of Tua Tagovailoa hurt, of course, and it's no coincidence that neither Tyreek Hill nor Jaylen Waddle have had a 100-yard game since he went down, but the backfield hasn't been healthy enough to pick up the slack either. I think this is probably the team's nadir, and the offense will pick up the pace now that De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert are both back and Tyler Huntley's had a little more time to get used to the playbook, but without Tagovailoa this is not an attack with a 70-point ceiling. The defense, especially the secondary, has been keeping the team afloat, but it's also benefited from facing Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett and early season Trevor Lawrence.

Fortunately for the Dolphins, they probably get another QB this week that can help boost those defensive numbers. Anthony Richardson should take back over from Joe Flacco after recovering from his oblique injury, even though the team has averaged 27.0 points a game under Flacco and only 19.3 points with ARich. The 2023 fourth overall pick had a 3:6 TD:INT and horrific 49.3 percent completion rate in his first three starts of the year, and he wasn't even running that much to make up for it. Coach Steve Steichen seems to have a plan in place for Richardson, but it doesn't look like it's going to pay dividends in 2024. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor's hurt, the wideouts are all banged up, and the defense is in the bottom 10 in yards per pay allowed and third-down defense. Really, this is one of those games where my instincts tell me I should overrule my little score-generating algorithm, but where's the fun in that?

Key Info

MIA injuries: QB Tua Tagovailoa (IR, concussion), QB Skylar Thompson (questionable, ribs), WR Odell Beckham (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Bradley Chubb (PUP, knee), LB David Long (questionable, knee), S Jevon Holland (doubtful, hand)
IND injuries: RB Jonathan Taylor (out, ankle), WR Michael Pittman (questionable, back), WR Josh Downs (questionable, toe), WR Alec Pierce (questionable, shoulder), DT DeForest Buckner (IR, ankle), LB E.J. Speed (questionable, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIA DFS targets: none
IND DFS targets: Trey Sermon, Michael Pittman

MIA DFS fades: none
IND DFS fades: Tyler Goodson

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Achane leads the MIA backfield with 60 yards. Huntley throws for less than 200 yards but finds Hill for a score. Sermon hits for 80 yards and a touchdown. Richardson throws for 200 yards and a TD to Pittman. Colts 17-10

Detroit (+2) at Minnesota, o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

All apologies to the Super Bowl rematch later Sunday night, but this is the game of the week. The Lions roll into this one at 4-1 and coming off the total destruction of the Cowboys. In Detroit's three-game winning streak, Jared Goff has been unreal — 81.8 percent completion rate, 7:1 TD:INT and 12.2 YPA. David Montgomery has four rushing touchdowns during that stretch, while Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown have found the end zone three times each. All three of those games have come under a roof too (Arizona, Detroit and Dallas), and the Lions don't actually play outdoors again until a trip to Green Bay in the first week of November. The offense will need to stay sharp, though. The defense has been good enough until now, but the loss of Aidan Hutchinson for the season (he has a small chance of returning in the playoffs) can't be overstated. James Houston, who hasn't recorded a sack since 2022 and has only been healthy enough to play nine games in his NFL career, might now be the team's top pass rusher. The injury is huge enough that it might keep Detroit from being true Super Bowl contenders this season, though the "win one for the Hutcher!" narrative is going to be hard to avoid for a while. It's also a formula for some consistently high-scoring games.

Staring down at them from the top of the mighty NFC North are the well-rested Vikings. They come strolling out of their bye as the only undefeated team in the NFC, and they've already taken down the Texans, 49ers and Packers. Sam Darnold might have Comeback Player of the Year locked up; while he didn't exactly have a revenge game against the Jets his last time out, Minnesota got the win, and that's all that mattered. He's thrown multiple TDs in every other game so far, and he's in the top 5 in TD passes and YPA. Darnold's done all that without T.J. Hockenson, who could make his 2024 debut this week (just in time for a revenge game of his own), and with only about 10 quarters of Jordan Addison. Amazing what having Justin Jefferson to throw to can do for your numbers, and your confidence. The Vikings' defense under Brian Flores has been downright elite, sitting first in QB rating against and top five in yards per play allowed, points per game allowed, turnovers, sacks, third-down defense ... Minnesota's only given up one rushing TD, and it came against a Kyle Shanahan running back. Even then, Jordan Mason didn't get into the end zone until the fourth quarter in Week 2, when the Vikes already held a 20-7 lead. The chess match between Flores and Detroit OC Ben Johnson will be worth the price of admission alone.

Key Info

DET injuries: EDGE Aidan Hutchinson (IR, lower leg)
MIN injuries: RB Aaron Jones (questionable, hamstring), TE T.J. Hockenson (PUP, knee), LB Blake Cashman (out, toe)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DET DFS targets: none
MIN DFS targets: Vikings DST

DET DFS fades: Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, Tim Patrick
MIN DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Montgomery leads the DET backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown, while Gibbs adds 60 yards. Goff throws for 240 yards and TDs to St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Jones plays and gains 80 yards and a score. Darnold throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns, two to Jefferson (who tops 100 yards) and one to Hockenson. Vikings 28-27

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants (+3), o/u 43.0 - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

For whatever reason, bad things tend to happen to Nick Sirianni's Eagles at Met Life Stadium. They've lost three of their last four road games against the Giants, and they even dropped a game there against the Zach Wilson-led Jets last year when Jalen Hurts threw three INTs. The QB at least comes into this one with some momentum, posting a season-high 10.6 YPA in a win over the Browns last week. Hurts looked a lot more comfortable throwing to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith than he had chucking it to Jahan Dotson, Parris Campbell, Vince Papale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vince_Papale and whoever else it was Philly were sending out there on routes. Of course, the passing game could take a back seat if Saquon Barkley decides he has some things to get off his chest. The former Giants standout gets his first crack at a revenge game, and he comes in fifth in the league in scrimmage yards and second in scrimmage yards per game (behind only Derrick Henry). Seeing Barkley stomp all over the club he described as having been "a little disrespectful" during contract talks this offseason would be the least surprising thing to happen in Week 7. Barkley and the offense might need to come up big, though. No defense has fewer takeaways than the Eagles, and the unit is bottom 10 in yards per play allowed, sacks, yards per completion allowed, yards per carry allowed ... it hasn't been a great start to Vic Fangio's time in Philly.

The Giants are at the bottom of the NFC East, abandoned by their fellow basement-dwellers the Commanders, who went out and got themselves a real coach and QB this offseason. Their two wins are against the mess that it the Browns, and a frankly fluky victory over the Seahawks that should have gone to OT, except Seattle's line forgot to block Isaiah Simmons on their last-minute field-goal attempt. They've mostly kept their losses close at least, and consistently credible losses might be their ceiling. Daniel Jones remains mediocre, and while the addition of Malik Nabers will help in the long run, this is still a guy who's failed to complete 60 percent of his passes in half his games this year. Nabers will be back from his concussion this week and might not have to deal with Darius Slay, and while you would think Darius Slayton (no relation) had done enough in Nabers' absence (14-179-1 on 22 targets the last two games) to warrant hanging onto a significant role in the game plan, I'm sure Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka have other ideas. (Also, how have I not been describing the Giants' inexplicable offense as Kafkaesque every single week? My bad, folks.) Devin Singletary will also be back from a two-game absence, but his spot in the backfield is a lot less secure after rookie Tyrone Tracy popped for triple-digit scrimmage yards each of the last two weeks. The defense leads the NFL in sacks, and that's with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux combining for just 5.0. Instead, Dexter Lawrence has erupted for seven in six games, which isn't bad for a defensive tackle with a career high of 7.5. The rest of DC Shane Bowen's unit is suspect — 26th in QB rating against, even with that pass rush — but the only team to put up more than 21 points against it so far is the Vikings, and that came back in Week 1.

Key Info

PHI injuries: TE Dallas Goedert (out, hamstring)
NYG injuries: DT Dexter Lawrence (questionable, hip), EDGE Brian Burns (questionable, groin), EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (IR, wrist)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
PHI DFS targets: none
NYG DFS targets: Malik Nabers

PHI DFS fades: Jahan Dotson
NYG DFS fades: Darius Slayton, Theo Johnson

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop

Barkley racks up 110 yards and a score. Hurts throws for 230 yards and two TDs, both to Brown. Tracy leads the NYG backfield with 60 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown. Jones throws for 240 yards and a second score to Nabers, but he also tosses a back-breaking pick-six to Cooper DeJean. Eagles 28-23 

LATE SUNDAY 

Las Vegas (+6.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 43.5 - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

With Davante Adams off to Broadway, the Raiders can now focus on the important task of getting better draft position in 2025. Vegas' four losses this season have been by an average of 15.3 points, and the margins don't figure to get smaller with the WR corps missing its biggest threat. The running game and offensive line are a mess, and while Brock Bowers may be great, he can't do it alone. Aidan O'Connell doesn't have many other options to throw to, though, especially with Jakobi Meyers likely to miss another week. As for the defense, it gave up more than 30 points to the Panthers, Broncos and Steelers, none of whom are exactly offensive dynamos. Keep this in the back of your mind too — with Tom Brady's minority ownership stake approved, who do you think he'll be pushing for as the new coach once Antonio Pierce is inevitably kicked to the curb ... ? (Then again, Josh McDaniels may have soured Mark Davis on Belichick's entire coaching tree, right down to the root.) The Raiders may not be contenders, but they're rarely not newsworthy.

At 1-4 coming out of their bye, the Rams also find themselves in a Western division basement, but their outlook for the rest of the year is a little brighter. For one thing, instead of staring up at an undefeated Kansas City in first place, nobody in the NFC West is above .500. For another, instead of getting rid of elite talent at wideout, the Rams should be getting some back this week with Cooper Kupp practicing this week. Matthew Stafford's numbers didn't actually take a huge tumble the last three games without Kupp or Puka Nacua available, but only because they weren't that great to begin with. The 36-year-old QB has yet to toss multiple TDs in a game this season and has been bothered by back soreness, but he's apparently feeling better after the week off. Instead the offense has been carried by Kyren Williams, who has seven scores during a five-game touchdown streak (actually, dating back to the end of the 2023 regular season, it's an eight-game streak with 12 total TDs). He's failed to get at least 20 touches only once and is one of only five backs in the league averaging 20-plus touches a game (Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Jordan Mason are the others). While his injury history makes that usage a little scary, Sean McVay might be beginning to mix rookie Blake Corum in a little more to reduce Williams' workload. The defense remains awful, though, sitting 32nd in the league in both rushing yards allowed per game and QB rating against. If the offense were at full strength, it might be able to put up pinball numbers of its own to compensate, but that could still be a couple weeks away.

Key Info

LV injuries: RB Zamir White (questionable, groin), WR Jakobi Meyers (doubtful, ankle)
LAR injuries: WR Cooper Kupp (questionable, ankle), WR Puka Nakua (IR, knee), WR Jordan Whittington (questionable, shoulder), TE Tyler Higbee (PUP, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LV DFS targets: Aidan O'Connell, Alexander Mattison, Kristian Wilkerson, Brock Bowers
LAR DFS targets: Kyren Williams, Jordan Whittington, Colby Parkinson

LV DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Mattison leads the LV backfield with 70 scrimmage yards. O'Connell throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, finding Bowers (who tops 100 yards) and Tre Tucker. Williams piles up 110 combined yards and another score. Stafford throws for 230 yards and two TDs, one each to Kupp and Parkinson. Rams 24-20

Carolina (+8) at Washington, o/u 52.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

This might be the most disrespectful spread I've ever seen. I'm sorry, but what have the Panthers done exactly to be within one score of the NFC East leaders, on the road no less? Carolina's 1-5, and has lost three consecutive games by an average of 36-18. Whatever dead-cat bounce Andy Dalton gave them is long gone, and the veteran QB has a 4:4 TD:INT and 5.4 YPA during the losing streak. The only guy who's shown up for this team all season is Chuba Hubbard, who deserves some sort of medal for posting a 5.6 YPC through six games. His reward should be a trade to a contender in the next couple weeks, since rookie Jonathon Brooks is just about ready for his NFL debut. The 2024 second-round pick won't be activated this week, but the end of his practice window lines up quite nicely with the trade deadline. Meanwhile, the defense lists seven linebackers on the injury report, and the defensive line and secondary aren't in much better shape. Even if the unit was fully healthy, it wouldn't be very good. But sure, eight points.

Putting aside my righteous indignation, the Commanders' secondary is pretty awful, so maybe the theory is Dalton can air it out enough to keep things close. I have my doubts. For one thing, against this Panthers defense, Jayden Daniels might be able to find a way to produce a completion rate better than 100 percent. I know it's mathematically impossible, but what if he completes a pass to himself ... anyway, Daniels' potentially historic rookie campaign hit a bit of a speed bump a couple weeks ago against the Browns, but he bounced back in Week 6 to complete 68.6 percent of his tosses against the Ravens on a career-high 35 attempts. Through his first six NFL starts, the second overall pick in the 2024 draft has yet to post a YPA less than 7.7 in a game. That's ridiculous. Terry McLaurin is thriving with his new franchise QB, the backfield is productive with the defense's attention elsewhere and only the Lions have averaged both more points per game and more yards per play. If only the defense could get a stop now and then. Nobody else is in the bottom six in both yards allowed per pass attempt and yards allowed per carry, and only one other team is in the bottom four in both third-down defense and red-zone defense. (Guess who? It's Carolina). Dan Quinn will eventually get that side of the ball turned around, but it'll take an offseason or two, as right now he just doesn't have much to work with aside from the LB duo of Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu. Losing Jonathan Allen for the rest of the year certainly doesn't help.

Key Info

CAR injuries: RB Jonathon Brooks (NFI, knee), WR Diontae Johnson (questionable, ankle), WR Adam Thielen (IR, hamstring), EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (doubtful, shoulder), EDGE D.J. Wonnum (PUP, quadriceps), LB Josey Jewell (out, hamstring), S Jordan Fuller (IR, hamstring)
WAS injuries: RB Brian Robinson (questionable, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CAR DFS targets: Andy Dalton, Diontae Johnson, Jalen Coker
WAS DFS targets: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler

CAR DFS fades: Panthers DST
WAS DFS fades: none

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop

Hubbard jets for 80 yards and a TD. Dalton throws for 210 yards and a score to Coker. Ekeler leads the WAS backfield with 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, while Robinson also punches in a TD. Daniels throws for 270 yards and three scores, one each to McLaurin, Noah Brown and Zach Ertz, and he also runs in a touchdown of his own. Commanders 42-20

Kansas City (+1.5) at San Francisco, o/u 47.0
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The last time Patrick Mahomes lost a game was, hmm ... last Christmas, when Kansas City somehow dropped a 20-14 decision at home to the Raiders even though Aidan O'Connell only threw for 62 yards. The champs are coming out of their bye at 5-0, and in their last contest, JuJu Smith-Schuster stepped into the No. 1 receiver role with a 7-130-0 line on eight targets. It's not the kind of volume Rashee Rice was getting, but when you average 16.3 yards a target, you don't need volume. Mahomes could end up shifting around who his top option is depending on the matchup, with Travis Kelce and maybe rookie Xavier Worthy also in the mix, or maybe the team will lean more heavily on its running game with Clyde Edwards-Helaire joining Kareem Hunt as versatile, every down backs. At the moment, it doesn't look like the kind of high-ceiling offense Kansas City is known for, but let's see what Andy Reid can do with these pieces, plus whoever they might bring in by the trade deadline. It's the defense that might need reinforcements the most, though. The unit hasn't been bad, but it's not generating splash plays (bottom seven in both takeaways and sacks), though the fact that K.C. is first in pressure rate says QBs should be very afraid that they'll be the one in the pocket when the regression wave comes in.

One of those 11 straight wins by Kansas City dating to the 2023 campaign, of course, came in Super Bowl LVIII over the 49ers. It's been a bumpy start to the current season for the runners-up, with injuries to Christian McCaffrey and some other key folks leading to a 3-3 record. That's still good enough for first in the NFC West, and the three losses were by a combined 10 points, so there's really no cause for alarm yet. Better/healthier days should be ahead. Brock Purdy's 8.8 YPA is second only to Jared Goff, and Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and even Jauan Jennings have rotated whose turn it is to pop for big numbers. Jordan Mason's also kept the backfield going, and when he left last week's game with a minor shoulder issue, rookie Isaac Guerendo erupted for 99 yards on 10 carries. He should have had his first career TD too, but he got tripped up at the end of a 76-yard run late in the fourth quarter and elected to just slide down inside the five-yard line to burn more clock rather than diving for the end zone. Basically, the offense has been fine, and CMac will return at some point. The defense has been merely OK, though, and the only teams it's held below 23 points are the Jets and Patriots, which hardly counts. With Javon Hargrave out for the year and guys like Dre Greenlaw still lacking clear return timelines, San Francisco's another team that could be shopping for help at the deadline.

Key Info

KC injuries: RB Isiah Pacheco (IR, lower leg), WR Rashee Rice (IR, knee), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (questionable, hamstring)
SF injuries: RB Christian McCaffrey (IR, Achilles), WR Jauan Jennings (out, hip), WR Ricky Pearsall (NFI, chest), K Jake Moody (out, ankle), K Matthew Wright (out, shoulder), LB Dre Greenlaw (PUP, Achilles), S Talanoa Hufanga (IR, wrist)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
KC DFS targets: none
SF DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: Patrick Mahomes, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson
SF DFS fades: none

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop

Hunt leads the KC backfield with 70 yards, while Edwards-Helaire adds a receiving score. Mahomes throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Kelce and Worthy. Mason bangs out 90 yards and a TD. Purdy throws for 280 yards and three scores, two to Kittle and one to Aiyuk. 49ers 31-21

SUNDAY NIGHT

N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh (+2), o/u 38.0 - Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Huh, weird. Nathaniel Hackett got replaced as the play-caller last week, and the Jets offense showed signs of life. Who knew? (Robert Saleh, apparently). Breece Hall got treated like a bell cow for the first time since Week 3, and responded with his best performance of the season. Aaron Rodgers also had his best numbers of the year, and were it not for a huge hit by Taylor Rapp on Garrett Wilson in the end zone late in the third quarter — and/or the wind playing havoc with Greg Zuerlein's FG attempts, take your pick — the Jets would have come out on top against the Bills. Now Rodgers is about to get reunited with Davante Adams, giving the veteran QB one of the best receiving duos in the league at his disposal. At 2-4, the playoffs are still in reach, and the Sauce Gardner-led secondary is still borderline elite (at least, they're elite at getting flagged for PI.) The schedule also might work in their favor — after playing host to the Texans next week, they face only one more team with a record currently above .500, and that's the rematch with Buffalo in Week 17. There's a good chance GM Joe Douglas' panic moves the last couple weeks make him look pretty smart by season's end.

I dunno, man. I give Mike Tomlin the benefit of the doubt most of the time because he's earned it, but this one's a head-scratcher. Justin Fields comes in, leads the Steelers to a 4-2 record, puts up the best numbers of his career (66.3 percent completion rate and 10 total TDs against only two turnovers), and he gets rewarded by being benched for Russell Wilson, who arguably hasn't looked good since 2019 or 2020? The only may this makes sense to me is if some promise was made to Wilson before he signed that he would be the starter, so Tomlin is keeping his word — for at least one week, anyway. Or maybe Wilson just looks that much better than Fields in practice. Neither guy will have much in the way of weapons beyond George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, but with the market now established by the Adams and Cooper trades, Pittsburgh might step up its efforts to land someone like DeAndre Hopkins. Hey, the Panthers have a veteran wideout that could ... oh, right, never mind. Wait, I have a better idea — Mike Williams gets traded at halftime and catches a pass for both teams in the same game. Najee Harris got going last week despite a banged-up offensive line, and the defense has been as stout as usual, so Pittsburgh once again seems headed for at least a wild-card berth, but it's hard to have a lot of confidence in the Steelers until the quarterback situation gets settled.

Key Info

NYJ injuries: TE Tyler Conklin (questionable, hip)
PIT injuries: RB Cordarrelle Patterson (out, ankle), WR Roman Wilson (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Nick Herbig (out, hamstring), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NYJ DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: none

NYJ DFS fades: Davante Adams
PIT DFS fades: none

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop

Hall gets held to 60 yards, but he does catch a TD pass. Rodgers throws for 230 yards and a second score to Garrett. Harris bangs out 80 yards and a touchdown. Russ starts and throws for less than 200 yards with a TD to Pickens, but Fields also sees some snaps and runs in a touchdown. Steelers 24-17

THURSDAY NIGHT

Denver at New Orleans (+2.5), o/u 37.0 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

While they fell short against the Chargers last week, the Broncos have had a perfectly credible start to the season. They're 3-3, and each loss has been by a single score. The defense has done the heavy lifting — second in yards allowed per play, second in sacks despite the lack of an established big-name edge rusher (six Broncos have at least two sacks, but none more than the 4.5 for Jonathan Cooper, a seventh-round steal in the 2021 draft), fifth in QB rating against and first in red-zone defense are the highlights — which has bought time for rookie QB Bo Nix to settle in. After not throwing a TD but getting picked off four times in his first three NFL starts, he has a 5:1 TD:INT in his last three, and he's added surprising value with his legs (180 rushing yards and three scores). The offensive line is down to its second-string center and third-string right tackle, so Sean Payton likely will continue to have Nix get rid of the ball quickly rather than waiting for routes to develop, and that hasn't helped the running game get going either. It's a low-ceiling offensive approach, but it's the best one Denver has.

As for the Saints ... yikes. They came marching into the season with that dazzling 2-0 start, and then kept right on going straight into the infirmary. They head into Thursday's game likely down their starting QB, top two wideouts and whatever you want to label Taysom Hill. New Orleans' offensive line is in worse shape than Denver's, and the defense is missing edge rusher Tanoh Kpassagnon, linebacker Pete Werner and safety Will Harris too. Rookie Spencer Rattler started under center last week and did OK against a Bucs defense that ranks 28th in passing yards allowed per game, but he also got picked off twice, which is going to happen when you're relying on a fifth-round rookie (Bub Means) and an undrafted rookie (Yale legend Mason Tipton, who I would have guessed was on the undercard for a Gore Vidal-William F. Buckley debate in 1968) to haul in your passes. Purely based on the season-long numbers, the Saints should win this one. They do still have Alvin Kamara, and weird things can happen on Thursdays, but this is a team fielding an offense that mostly wouldn't look out of place in the fourth quarter of a preseason contest. At least the kid receivers won't have to worry about Patrick Surtain.

Key Info

DEN injuries: WR Josh Reynolds (IR, finger), CB Patrick Surtain (out, concussion)
NO injuries: QB Derek Carr (doubtful, oblique), WR Chris Olave (out, concussion), WR Rashid Shaheed (out, knee), "TE" Taysom Hill (doubtful, ribs) 

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DEN DFS targets: Javonte Williams
NO DFS targets: Alvin Kamara, Bub Means

DEN DFS fades: Courtland Sutton 
NO DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Williams has his best game of the season, toting up 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Nix throws for 220 yards and a TD to Troy Franklin. Kamara gains 90 combined yards and a score. Rattler throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice again, but he does find Means for a touchdown. Broncos 17-14

Last week's record: 12-2, 9-5 ATS, 9-5 o/u
2024 record: 53-39, 41-49-2 ATS, 49-43 o/u