This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Houston (+2.5) at N.Y. Jets, o/u 42.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
The Texans are the latest team to have their wide receiver room turn into an ER. Stefon Diggs is done for the year, while Nico Collins will miss at least one more game before he's eligible to come off IR. C.J. Stroud hasn't been terrible in Collins' absence, but his 61.8 percent completion rate and 6.3 YPA are well below expectations for the second-year QB, so there's no guarantee he can make do with a rag-tag bunch of pass-catchers in this one. Tank Dell figures to see plenty of looks despite his 2024 struggles, while guys like John Metchie might be getting their last chance to prove they can contribute. It could just mean Houston leans even more heavily on Joe Mixon and its running game, something other teams have done effectively against the Jets this season — they're fifth in YPC allowed, but 17th in rushing yards allowed per game and in the bottom 10 in rushing TDs allowed. The Texans also haven't traveled well this season, going undefeated at home but 2-2 on the road, with the wins coming over the Anthony Richardson Colts and the Jacoby Brissett Patriots. On the bright side, DeMeco Ryans' defense is rolling, piling up nine takeaways and 12 sacks in the last three games, and that might be enough to compensate for any decline from the offense.
The deck chairs have been well and thoroughly shuffled, but the
THURSDAY NIGHT
Houston (+2.5) at N.Y. Jets, o/u 42.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
The Texans are the latest team to have their wide receiver room turn into an ER. Stefon Diggs is done for the year, while Nico Collins will miss at least one more game before he's eligible to come off IR. C.J. Stroud hasn't been terrible in Collins' absence, but his 61.8 percent completion rate and 6.3 YPA are well below expectations for the second-year QB, so there's no guarantee he can make do with a rag-tag bunch of pass-catchers in this one. Tank Dell figures to see plenty of looks despite his 2024 struggles, while guys like John Metchie might be getting their last chance to prove they can contribute. It could just mean Houston leans even more heavily on Joe Mixon and its running game, something other teams have done effectively against the Jets this season — they're fifth in YPC allowed, but 17th in rushing yards allowed per game and in the bottom 10 in rushing TDs allowed. The Texans also haven't traveled well this season, going undefeated at home but 2-2 on the road, with the wins coming over the Anthony Richardson Colts and the Jacoby Brissett Patriots. On the bright side, DeMeco Ryans' defense is rolling, piling up nine takeaways and 12 sacks in the last three games, and that might be enough to compensate for any decline from the offense.
The deck chairs have been well and thoroughly shuffled, but the Jets have still lost five consecutive games after choking last week against the Pats, and it's getting harder to find someone to blame who isn't named Aaron Rodgers. (Greg Zuerlein was the next scapegoat up, but he's now on IR). The 40-year-old QB has a 59.1 percent completion rate, 7:6 TD:INT and 6.4 YPA during the losing streak, and adding Davante Adams to the mix hasn't magically turned back the clock on Rodgers' performance. If anything, it's just made it clearer than Garrett Wilson should be the focal point of the passing attack — the third-year wideout has topped 100 yards in three of the last four games, and Allen Lazard is helpfully out of the picture for a bit, removing one temptation from Rodgers' view. New play-caller Todd Downing has also figured out that more Breece Hall is a good thing, and the RB has averaged 19.3 touches and 133 scrimmage yards the last three games. Heck, even Haason Reddick has finally reported, though he won't directly help a Jets' secondary that simply doesn't have enough talent around Sauce Gardner. Poor guy's only seeing about three passes a week thrown in his direction, but Gardner's 40.7 percent completion rate allowed would at least be career low.
Key Info
HOU injuries: RB Dameon Pierce (out, groin), WR Nico Collins (IR, hamstring), WR Stefon Diggs (IR, knee), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (out, knee), LB Christian Harris (IR, calf)
NYJ injuries: WR Allen Lazard (out, chest), K Greg Zuerlein (IR, knee), LB C.J. Mosley (out, neck), S Chuck Clark (IR, ankle), S Tony Adams (out, hamstring)
DFS Lineup Optimizer
HOU DFS targets: Texans DST
NYJ DFS targets: none
HOU DFS fades: none
NYJ DFS fades: Aaron Rodgers, Tyler Conklin
Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Mixon picks up 80 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Stroud throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Metchie. Hall gains 70 yards and a score. Rodgers throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, finding Wilson and Adams, but he also gets sacked four times and throws another ill-timed second-half INT. Texans 23-21
Last week's record: 11-5, 8-8 ATS, 7-9 o/u
2024 record: 75-48, 59-62-2 ATS, 62-61 o/u
