With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror, we're entering a four-week stretch for NFL news until March 10, at which point teams can begin negotiating with impending free agents. Those players can't officially sign until March 12 — also the date when trades can first be completed. However, teams can reach verbal agreements on trades at any time, and they can also release players whose contracts haven't expired (with those players then able to sign with new teams before the start of the new league year, like Jonnu Smith last offseason).
Below I'll look at QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs whose scheduled compensation for 2025 makes them candidates to be released/traded, i.e., the non-guaranteed money they're currently scheduled for is arguably more than what they're worth. There are other players not listed — like Rams QB Matthew Stafford — who are candidates to be traded but highly unlikely to be released (Stafford's contract largely has been paid out already, and the remaining money pales in comparison to what most starting QBs make).
A lot of the discussion you'll see elsewhere for these players focuses on cap hits and dead cap money, but in most cases that's ignoring sunk costs and the ease of moving money around by renegotiating other contracts. What really matters is the non-guaranteed money that a player is due for the upcoming season. If he's worth more than that number he'll likely be kept, extended or traded. If he's worth less he'll likely be released or
With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror, we're entering a four-week stretch for NFL news until March 10, at which point teams can begin negotiating with impending free agents. Those players can't officially sign until March 12 — also the date when trades can first be completed. However, teams can reach verbal agreements on trades at any time, and they can also release players whose contracts haven't expired (with those players then able to sign with new teams before the start of the new league year, like Jonnu Smith last offseason).
Below I'll look at QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs whose scheduled compensation for 2025 makes them candidates to be released/traded, i.e., the non-guaranteed money they're currently scheduled for is arguably more than what they're worth. There are other players not listed — like Rams QB Matthew Stafford — who are candidates to be traded but highly unlikely to be released (Stafford's contract largely has been paid out already, and the remaining money pales in comparison to what most starting QBs make).
A lot of the discussion you'll see elsewhere for these players focuses on cap hits and dead cap money, but in most cases that's ignoring sunk costs and the ease of moving money around by renegotiating other contracts. What really matters is the non-guaranteed money that a player is due for the upcoming season. If he's worth more than that number he'll likely be kept, extended or traded. If he's worth less he'll likely be released or pressured to accept a pay cut. I'll also discuss some in-between cases like Deebo Samuel, who might be tradable on his current contract but probably won't fetch a return commensurate with his talent. Not included is Aaron Rodgers, who was the first domino to fall and will now either retire or sign with a new team.
Quarterbacks
QB Derek Carr - $30 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 30%
This one is complicated, with Carr's $30 million base salary for 2025 becoming fully guaranteed if he's still on the roster March 14/15. That's not a terrible price for a low-end starting QB, at least relative to some of the other deals we've seen on the market, but it does seem the Saints could be inclined to rebuild/reset under a new coaching staff. The problem there is that they may not be able to even if they want to, with their cap situation being so awful that it requires renegotiating contracts rather than releasing players (the cuts cause money from void years and bonuses to accelerate to the future year's cap).
Even designating Carr as a post-June 1 release might not work, as the cap space would only be available after June 1, which doesn't help the Saints become cap compliant before then. They're currently projected to be $54 million over the salary cap at the start of the league year, with minimal ability to add considerable space via outright releases. It's a strange situation in which they chose to kick the can down the road for so long that they're now essentially forced to continue doing so, renegotiating veteran contracts to spread the cap hit into the future and become compliant for the current year. They'll inevitably start trying to fix that, but it might be a three-year process rather than the quick reset that other franchises can do.
QB Gardner Minshew - $9.3 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 90%
The Raiders have Aidan O'Connell as a capable, cheap backup, and they'll almost certainly try something new for the other QB spot, be it a rookie like Jalen Milroe or a veteran like Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson. I can't tell you how that'll play out, but I'm pretty sure it ends with Minshew looking for a new team soon, and he might be viewed strictly as a backup this time around, rather than getting another shot to compete for a starting role. He's not someone I'd draft for best ball, even in the 20th round.
Running Backs
RB Miles Sanders - $6.7 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 100%
Sanders has two years but no guaranteed money remaining on a contract that's been entirely disastrous for the Panthers. He bounced back in 2024 as a competent backup, after being completely useless in 2023. Still, he'll need to compete for his roster spot in 2025, be it with the Panthers or another team.
RB Austin Ekeler - $3.5 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 50%
Ekeler proved in 2024 that he still has juice, but he also suffered a pair of concussions and didn't get huge workloads even when fellow running back Brian Robinson missed games. Ekeler will turn 30 in May and has no guarantees for the second season of his two-year contract. If it were up to me, he'd be kept around and given more of the snaps/touches that went to Robinson. The Commanders like Robinson more than I do, however, and they may also pursue upgrades via free agency and/or the NFL Draft.
RB Zack Moss - $3.3 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 65%
Moss was mediocre in the first season of a two-year contract, before a neck injury at the end of October brought his season to an early end. He turned 27 in December and is due $3.3-3.5 million in compensation for 2025, with none of it guaranteed. I think Chase Brown will have competition next year, but I don't think it'll be from Moss.
RB Gus Edwards - $3.1 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 90%
Edwards has one year remaining on his contract, with a $3 million base salary and a $125k roster bonus due on the fifth day of the league year. In other words, he'll likely accept a pay cut or be released before the fifth day of the league year (March 17).
RB Raheem Mostert - $2.5 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 75%
Mostert is coming off an injury-plagued 2024 and has no guarantees for the final year of his contract. He'll turn 33 in April but is just two years removed from being a fantasy RB1. He's a reasonable late-round pick for best ball, although I suspect he'll be looking for backup work elsewhere while the cap-strapped Dolphins move forward with 2024 fourth-round pick Jaylen Wright as their No. 2 back.
- RB Jamal Williams - $3.15 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 100%
RB Cordarrelle Patterson - $2.8 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 90%
RB DeeJay Dallas - $2.4 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 50%
Wide Receivers
WR Davante Adams - $36.25 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 80%
Adams is still a good player, just not quite commensurate to the level of his compensation. With Rodgers confirmed to be out of the picture, the Jets likely will cut Adams as well (or else trade him to a new team where he'll need to renegotiate his deal). Adams turned 32 in December and technically has two years remaining on his contract (but no guaranteed money).
WR Deebo Samuel - $17.6 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 40%
Probability of trade: 40%
Samuel was worth more than his contract as recently as 2023, but the combination of a down season in 2024 and his team's strong depth at his position doesn't bode well for a future in San Francisco. There's always been some thought that Samuel won't age well due to his physical playing style and busy medical record, so teams may treat him like a guy who is 31 years old even though he just turned 29 in December. While there's not much chance he's back with the 49ers in 2025 under his current contract terms, it's hard to predict whether Sameul will be traded or released. Both of those options are more likely than an outright paycut, considering he has just one year remaining on his contract and might not mind becoming a free agent. If traded, Samuel presumably will want an extension but might be willing to accept a short one.
WR Tyler Lockett - $17 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 100%
Lockett may be able to hang around for a few more years as a No. 3/4 wide receiver, and he might even bounce back some in 2025 if he lands with a team that doesn't have two players dominating targets. His days as a high-end starter and fantasy asset are numbered, however, and any hope of staying in Seattle depends on taking a big pay cut. Lockett will turn 33 in September and has one year remaining on his contract.
WR Christian Kirk - $16.5 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 50%
Probability of trade: 20%
Kirk is another trade candidate, although in his case I think teams will only have interest if he's willing to accept a pay cut or else an extension that essentially amounts to a pay cut (whereas Samuel might generate interest on his current deal, but just wouldn't net a big return). In any case, Kirk has just one year remaining on his contract and is more of a solid starter than a true standout... but he does seem to have good chemistry with QB Trevor Lawrence, which could inspire the Jaguars' new leadership to push for an extension or paycut rather than trade/release. Kirk turned 28 in November and has one year remaining on his contract.
WR Allen Lazard - $11 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 100%
Lazard returned to relevance in 2024 after disappearing in 2023, catching 37 passes for 530 yards and six touchdowns in 12 games. He's unlikely to stay with the Jets unless Rodgers does, and even then Lazard will need to accept a pay cut to stick around. Lazard turned 29 in December and has one year remaining on his contract.
WR Kendrick Bourne - $7 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 80%
Bourne signed a three-year, $19.5 million contract last offseason when he was rehabbing from an ACL tear. It really functioned as a one-year, $6.5 million deal, with no guarantees beyond the first season and $7 million team options for each of the following two years. Bourne was a starter for New England during the second half of the season, but Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas both outproduced him, and the team now figures to prioritize finding a real No. 1 receiver for Drake Maye. Bourne likely will need to accept a pay cut if he wants to stick around in New England for his age-30 season, and he might only be fourth or fifth on the depth chart if he stays.
WR Kalif Raymond - $4.9 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 65%
WR Josh Reynolds - $4.5 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 100%
WR Cedrick Wilson - $2.9 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 90%
Tight Ends
TE Travis Kelce - $17.3 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 10%
Kelce is much more likely to sign a short extension or retire, but the possibility of being released or pressured into a pay cut can't be ruled out entirely. While Clark Hunt has done a great job of bringing championships to Kansas City, nobody would ever call him generous or open-handed. Kelce is due a $4.5 million base salary and $12.5 million in roster bonuses* for the final year of his contract in 2025, putting him at the top of the market for his position at a point in his career when his performance is slightly below elite status. I'd argue that tight ends in general are underpaid before arguing that Kelce is overpaid, but Hunt might see things differently, especially when he has Noah Gray under contract through 2027 on a four-year, $18 million deal that includes a full guarantee for Gray's 2025 base salary of $2.96 million.
* $11.5 million is due March 14, with another $1 million due on the fifth day of training camp.
TE Evan Engram - $15.75 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 85%
Engram has mostly played well for the Jaguars, but he'll turn 31 shortly before Week 1 and has just one year remaining on his contract (with no guaranteed money). The $15.75 million is an awful lot to pay for a guy that doesn't offer much in terms of big plays or blocking, instead providing most of his value as a dump-off/possession target. There's also the matter of 2023 second-round pick Brenton Strange looking like a competent replacement when hamstring and shoulder injuries cost Engram eight games this past season.
It's possible the new showrunners in Jacksonville prefer Engram to Strange, but they'll still expect the veteran to take a pay cut (or sign an unfavorable extension) if that's the case. Engram's 2025 compensation is mostly in the form of his base salary, which means the Jaguars don't need to rush a decision (although it would be the right thing to do with a veteran player, as opposed to leaving him hanging/uncertain about his future.
TE David Njoku - $15.25 million guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 40%
Njoku is in the same boat as Engram, scheduled for more than $15 million in non-guaranteed compensation for the final year of his contract, following an injury-plagued 2024. However, there are a couple of noteworthy differences. First and foremost, Njoku is nearly two years younger, turning 29 in July. Second, Njoku is less strictly a possession receiver, having shown more ability than Engram as both a blocker and big-play threat at times. Njoku is thus more likely to sign an extension on favorable terms, whereas any extension Engram signs is likely to reduce not only his 2025 cap hit but also his real-money compensation. Cleveland beat writers are already discussing possible terms for Njoku's extension.
TE Dallas Goedert - $14.3 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 30%
Goedert turned 30 in January and doesn't have any guarantees for the final year of his contract in 2025. He's a well-rounded player coming off a strong postseason, but one who has missed multiple games in five straight years, including a career-high seven absences in 2024. While a contract extension is the most likely outcome, a trade or release wouldn't be shocking. I estimate an 80 percent chance Goedert is back with the Eagles next year.
TE Mark Andrews - $11 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 20%
Andrews has one year left on his contract and will turn 30 shortly before Week 1. The deal is a good one for Baltimore if we look at Andrews' regular-season production, but he hasn't played nearly as well in the playoffs, notably making two huge mistakes in the recent loss to Buffalo. While he'll likely be back with the Ravens for at least one more season, there's some chance Andrews is traded and the team instead extends Isaiah Likely, who is entering the final year of his rookie contract. Andrews' reasonable salary relative to his track record of production makes him unlikely to be outright released even if the Ravens are of a mind to move forward with Likely as their top tight end.
TE Taysom Hill - $10 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 95%
Hill will turn 32 in August and may not be ready for Week 1 after suffering an ACL tear in Week 13. The Saints' horrific cap situation and extensive use of void years complicates things, as they won't actually add 2025 cap space unless Hill is designated as a post-June 1 release. There's no way he gets paid his $10 million, non-guaranteed base salary for the final year of his contract, but I'm not sure if he'll take a pay cut, sign an extension that's essentially a pay cut or simply be released. Either way, the combination of an ACL tear and a new coaching staff in New Orleans doesn't bode well for continued fantasy relevance.
From The Insiders on @NFLNetwork: Looking at the challenges that await new #Saints coach Kellen Moore... pic.twitter.com/T6swZ5i8zn
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) February 13, 2025
TE Noah Fant - $9 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 50%
Fant is probably underrated at this point, having established himself as a solid starting tight end after he failed to live up to his status as the 20th overall pick in 2019. I'm not sure whether the Seahawks would rather have $9 million or a mid-range starter at tight end; you could argue it either way, and their decision might ultimately depend on what else is available this offseason / their opinion of 2024 fourth-round pick AJ Barner.
This could be one of those situations that's frustrating for the player, i.e., he's kept on the team until later in the offseason, and then released at a point when most teams have already filled out their rosters and used their cap space. His agent is partially to blame, as Fant's non-guaranteed 2025 compensation is entirely in the form of his base salary and per-game roster bonuses, rather than a roster bonus due in March (a mechanism that pressures the team to decide early on and either gives the player security thereafter or allows him to become a free agent in March when more teams are looking for new players).
TE Tyler Higbee - $5.5 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 25%
It was impressive to see Higbee come back from his ACL tear last January and become a key contributor for the Rams in this year's playoffs. He certainly looked like a guy worth more than $5.5 million, but he turned 32 in January and has just one year remaining on his contract for a team that plans to trade WR Cooper Kupp and may consider moving QB Matthew Stafford. If the Rams are truly inclined to retool, it would make sense to try to trade Higbee as well. And then if there are no takers, he might be outright released. I'm guessing it won't come to that, but there is some chance.
TE Josh Oliver - $8 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 80%
TE Gerald Everett - $5.5 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 90%
TE Foster Moreau - $4.2 million non-guaranteed
Probability of release/paycut: 90%
