This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks: Best Player Props For Week 11
Player Anytime Touchdowns
Tony Pollard - 115 (FanDuel)
I know season-long fantasy owners have to be frustrated that Pollard comes into this game with only two touchdowns this season after scoring 12 last season. Even more frustrating is that backup Rico Dowdle has the same number of touchdowns, scoring last week and getting 12 carries. However, the game script of being a blowout helped Dowdle's numbers and it likely won't be as much of a blowout this week with Dallas only favored 10.5 on the road (remember they lost to the Cardinals on the road in Week 3). This number for Pollard is -143 on other sites and the Panthers have allowed a league-worst 12 rushing touchdowns this season.
Aaron Jones +125 (Caesars)
I'm tempted to go with AJ Dillon here (+230), but he has only one touchdown this season (nine games) while Jones has three in only six games. The Chargers have allowed the 26th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season and have to play this game on the road in Green Bay, where the Packers are only three-point underdogs. Getting back to Dillon, I can see a case in wagering on both players which gives smaller floor but also a higher ceiling.
Sam LaPorta, DET +180 (Caesars)
This might be my favorite anytime touchdown play of the week considering LaPorta's role in the offense and the matchup. The Bears defense ranks 24th in the league against opposing tight ends and that includes five receiving touchdowns to the position. LaPorta got 11 targets in his best two matchups this season (Tampa 21st, Atlanta 28th) so the Lions appear to be paying attention to the stats. The over/under is 48 and with the Lions favored by 7.5 points they can be penciled in for around four touchdowns.
Player Props
Tyreek Hill Over 88.5 Receiving Yards
*Tyreek Hill 150+ Receiving Yards + Anytime Touchdown Parlay +850 (Caesars)*
This prop is as high as 91.5 on other sites and I think he's going to smash this and possibly before halftime. The Dolphins are a big favorite (13.5 points) and all season they've beaten up on inferior teams such as the Raiders. Hill has four straight games of double-digit targets and Miami should be prepared for the Raiders coming out of their bye week. I also love parlaying Hill's alternate receiving yards (150+) with an anytime touchdown (-154) on Caesars. This is only +543 on other sites showing the value and guess how many times this has hit this season? It's hit four out of nine games this season making this wager a huge value.
Terry McLaurin Over 59.5 Receiving Yards -114 (FanDuel)
McLaurin was held in check last week finishing with only four catches for 33 yards in a not-so-ideal matchup in Seattle. This week it's a complete 180 for him as he'll get a home matchup against the Giants. New York ranks 30th in the league against opposing wide receivers and the rapport with Sam Howell has grown as the season has gone on. Terry has at least eight targets in five straight games and has hit this over in his last four out of five games and five of his last seven.
Breece Hall Over 81.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards -114 (FanDuel)
Hall went for 147 yards on this prop Week 1 against the Bills and Buffalo has lost a few key players on the defense since. The Bills rank 24th against opposing running backs and Hall has seen a significant uptick in touches since Week 5 (only had 11 Week 1). Hall is averaging over 46 receiving yards per game and the Bills have given up 490 receiving yards to opposing running backs this season, the second-highest mark in the NFL.
