This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
NFL Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Week 6
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It seems that I, along with a large majority of Bears Nation, just needed a quick break away from the team. Not only did the Colts provide a lovely and welcoming home for my analysis last week, they came through by nailing my game-flow prediction almost exactly. Alas, my vacation to Indy was short-lived and I'm back breaking down our Bears, who also seemed to respond well to our amicable break with a thorough throttling of the Commanders. This week's contest against NFC North rival Minnesota has many twists and turns to navigate through, so let's get to it.
Chicago Bears vs. 
Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds for Week 6
Current Odds:
Vikings -3
Vikings ML -154, Bears ML +135
Total 43.5/44
The obvious major story here is the injury and absence of Minnesota's all-everything WR, Justin Jefferson. Interestingly, his absence from this game has barely affected the line as it opened at -3.5 and only moved to -3 throughout the week. My interpretation here is the books knew Jefferson would be out and the public believes the Vikings are the better team regardless. However, 61% of the money has been on Minnesota yet the line moved down. That gives me a hint that the sharps are on Chicago. The big movement came with the total, which opened at 49.5 and is all the way down to 43.5 in spots. Part of that is likely the Jefferson news; the other part is it is supposed to rain in Chicago for four straight days, including Sunday, making an already slow Soldier Field turf even slower.
Bears vs. Vikings Betting Picks This Week
After getting dismantled in Kansas City and falling to 0-3 amid organizational turmoil, I thought the Bears were down and out. My feeling was further solidified by a stunning (was it?) home collapse against the awful Broncos in Week 4. Then, Thursday night happened. Chicago looked like a completely different team, confident in the pass game and competent on defense. Was this a case of the right matchup at the right time, catching the Commanders on a short week after giving Philly all it could handle? Or is this a sign they are starting to come together? And what do we make of the Vikings? By many accounts, Minnesota is being ULTRA-cautious with Jefferson and an IR stint wasn't entirely necessary. At 1-4 and with high hopes, could the Vikings be in tank mode to position themselves for a high draft pick next year? At +3 and with value on the moneyline, I'm willing to say yes to each of those angles, at least for one week. From a total perspective, I think the move is a huge overreaction in a game that features two porous defenses and see good value in OVER 43.5. I'm also going to grab all the points I can get with the Bears. But my best bet, similar to Indy last week, is to take Chicago on the ML at +135, as currently found on BetMGM.
Bears vs. Vikings Best Bet: Bears ML (+135) @ BetMGM
Bears vs. Vikings Prediction
Chicago seems to have emphasized fast starts over the last couple weeks, scoring 21 in the first half (all in the second quarter) against Denver and 27 against Washington. The Vikings' defense is on par with those teams and I expect more of the same this week while Minnesota struggles to find its offensive identity without Justin Jefferson. The Bears take a 10-0 lead into the second quarter and a 20-7 lead into halftime. With the lessons learned from their collapse against Denver and having seen that translate into success in Washington, Chicago keeps its foot on the gas with a good mix of Justin Fields on the ground and through the air, the Bears extend their lead to 27-10 heading into the fourth. With the game in hand and the Vikings showing little threat, the Bears bleed the clock and settle for a Cairo Santos FG for a 30-10 lead. A late Vikings TD in garbage time pushes the total over, but is inconsequential to the line as Chicago wins handily, 30-17.
