NFL Picks: Betting Odds, Player Props, and Best Bets for Eagles vs. Commanders

NFL Picks: Betting Odds, Player Props, and Best Bets for Eagles vs. Commanders

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

Monday Night Football Betting: NFL Player Props and Best Bets for Eagles vs. Commanders

Last article: 1-3, -2.46 units 

Season: 61-81, -27.89 units

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Betting Odds for Eagles vs. Commanders

Spread: Eagles -11, -105 (DraftKings)

Total: 43.0 points, -110 (DraftKings)

Moneyline: Eagles -500, Commanders +400 (DraftKings)

Commanders at Eagles Best Bets and Player Props

Philadelphia Eagles -5.0 / Tennessee Titans +9.0, -120 (DraftKings)

Good spot for another two-team, six-point teaser following yesterday's pairing of the Chiefs/49ers. While this one is less optimal (taking the Eagles -5.0 from a listed price of -11.0), it's still a safe bet that the powerful Eagles can cover five points at home vs. the Commanders (a team they've already beaten by 16 points on the road this year). The Eagles have won all four of their home games this year by a minimum of eight points. In the other half of this teaser (next week's TNF game), the Packers haven't beaten anyone by 10 points since their Week 2 home win vs. the Bears, while the Titans haven't lost to anyone by 10 points since Week 2 at Buffalo. It's also true that Thursday Night games (in general) tend to be lower-scoring when compared to the weekend games, which also favors taking the nine points with the Titans.

A.J. Brown over 73.5 receiving yards, -115 (DraftKings)

The excellent A.J. Brown has covered this total in exactly half his games this year (4-of-8), but when not doing so, it's often been because Dallas Goedert was having a big game. That may not be the case tonight, as the Commanders ranked first in fantasy points allowed to TE's coming into this week. It's also worth noting that Goedert went 3-26-1 (on four targets) in his prior game vs. the Commanders this year, while Brown went 5-85-1 (on 10 targets) in the same game. And contrary to their #1 ranking vs. TE's, the Commanders rank 27th in fantasy points allowed to WR's this year. It seems likely that A.J. Brown will be busy tonight, and that's all he should need to to cover this total, considering his lofty 16.7 yards per catch average (which is top ten in the league).

Kenneth Gainwell over 13.5 rushing yards, -110 (FanDuel)

Gainwell seems to have established himself as a small part of the Eagles powerhouse offense recently, not getting many carries (he's averaging roughly three per game recently), but being very effective when he does get the ball, averaging better than five yard per carry over the last month. He also scored a touchdown last week, and had three catches as a receiver, so his role seems to be growing, if anything. I think it's probably a safe bet that he can get upwards of four rushing attempts tonight (with the Eagles likely to be leading in the second half), and with Gainwell's recent success rate (5+ yards per carry), that figures to be good enough.

Taylor Heinicke over 14.5 rushing yards, -120 (DraftKings)

One of Taylor Heinicke's obvious strengths is his mobility, and he should have plenty of chances to run tonight, with the Eagles strong pass rush and coverage skills. Heinicke has already surpassed this total in each of his last two games, and seems a good bet to do it again, perhaps especially with the Commanders trailing in the game.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Walter Hand
Walter is a former Las Vegas oddsmaker, and longtime successful fantasy player in both football and baseball.
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