This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
It is already Week 6 both in the NFL and the Circa Sports Million contest. There were two big themes this week in the top 5 picks -- injured quarterbacks and travel to and from London.
49ers -7.5 at 
Browns - 2,240 picks, 1,796 net
Bengals -2.5 vs. 
Seahawks - 1,944 picks, 554 net
Ravens -4 at 
Titans - 1,512 picks, 1,034 net
Buccaneers +3.5 vs. 
Lions - 1,467 picks, 503 net
Colts +4 at 
Jaguars - 1,393 picks, 633 net
San Francisco crept up early in the week to -7.5 with news that Deshaun Watson may miss the game. After the lines froze Thursday it was confirmed he would sit, and the betting markets lifted as high as -10.5 before settling at -9.5. There is a lot of value at -7.5 and we bit, along with roughly 42.5 percent of the contestants. That sets a high-water mark for picks so far this year. The 1,796 net picks are by far the highest of 2023 as well. There is a "game theory" case to avoid one like this or completely fade and take the Browns. It is a contest after all, not a bet, plus it does not cross particularly key numbers.
There is also line value in the Ravens at -4 in London vs the Titans, though at the time many submitted picks, it had only lifted to -4.5. It has gone as high as -5.5 since. The angle here is that the Ravens flew out early in the week and the betting market assumes it was not to spend extra time searching for an English pub that serves Natty Boh.
Speaking of London, the Jaguars return without a bye after spending an unprecedented two weeks overseas. It is also the "Gardner Minshew Revenge Game" as the former Jaguars backup gets the nod with Anthony Richardson on injured reserve. We bit on this one as well, so here is hoping some combination of jet lag and Minshew magic leads to an Indy cover.
We filled up our Week 6 contest card with the following
Falcons -2.5 vs. Commanders- 49ers -7.5 at Browns
Texans +2 vs. Saints- Colts +4 at Jaguars
Jets +7 vs. Eagles
Desmond Ridder has never lost at home as the quarterback of the Falcons. The last two wins came at the bell against the Packers and then the Texans by one and two points, so Atlanta will need to do a little more to cover there. The Commanders come in off a mini-bye and an awful showing against the Bears and I do not normally love fading a team off a clunker like that, so this is more about liking the Falcons to roll at home.
The Jets have some line value with the market now Eagles -6.5 and even as low as -6. Both sides have key injuries with the Jets missing their best offensive lineman, Alijah Vera-Tucker, plus shutdown corner Sauce Gardner. The Eagles are down rookie force Jalen Carter and their own top corner, Darius Slay. I'm not sure Zach Wilson is poised to explode, but the ship has stabilized. The Eagles, meanwhile, continue to both win every week and somewhat underwhelm while doing so. The Birds hover near the spread week after week. As a Giants fan, I have little doubt the Eagles come into MetLife and beat them by 40 and barely break a sweat, but they play the Jets, and their quality defense should pose a stiffer test even minus Gardner.
Week 5 Review
Pool contestants cumulative picks remain very consistent at just above the 50 percent mark.
Given the contest edges versus the stale lines each week, this remains a mediocre performance in the aggregate. To state the obvious, actual bets need to hit over 52.4 percent on -110 lines to win money over time. Again, there is some "game theory" involved in the contest, but by and large the selections reflect actual opinions, and judging by the results so far, they are coin flips.
Following the consensus choice in each game has performed modesty better.
Only one losing week so far, and 54.14 percent overall. Just limiting it to the top five each week has gone 13-11-1, so again, above water but not by much.
We went 3-2 last week, winning with the Falcons, Bengals and Chiefs and losing with the Ravens and Broncos. On the season we sit at 14-10-1, which hey, puts us above water! The leader sits at 21-4 and seven contestants total are 19-5-1, so we have some work to do to move on up the Bell Curve that is the standings graph.
