This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Welcome to a season of Player Props for the upcoming football season. My goal in this space will share some of the picks I like and do some research to back it up while looking for the best odds amongst the different sportsbooks. Let's dive in and see what peaks my interest this week.
PLAYER TOUCHDOWNS
Bijan Robinson, ATL (+119 Caesars)
There are big expectations for Robinson, and with his pedigree he should get a heavy workload right away. He is also more than capable of catching passes out of the backfield adding to his potential touchdown total. Atlanta's offensive line is one of the best in the league and with Desmond Ridder under center this will be a very run-heavy team. This line is -135 in other places so if you like it, you might want to grab it sooner than later. I also like his 2+ touchdowns odds which are +600 on DraftKings (only +470 in other spots).
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (+135 DraftKings)
The Patriots only getting four points at home against the Eagles smells fishy to me, but I know we should never underestimate Bill Belichick. Stevenson will likely be the focal point of the Patriots' offense and should get all the work he can handle, including (hopefully) the goal-line carries. Stevenson caught at least two passes in every game last season except once showing that he also has the dimension of catching the ball out of the backfield. Of course, the risk here is Ezekiel Elliott is seen as some sort of Jerome Bettis and vultures the goal-line work.
Joshua Palmer, LAC (+350 DraftKings)
Rookie Quentin Johnston is in this same range for odds, but reports have him behind Palmer on the depth chart, at least for now. You could hypothetically hedge and take both if you don't mind decreasing your odds, but potentially getting a very high ceiling if somehow both hit. Palmer is just 23 years old (for only a couple of more weeks) and is entering his third season in Los Angeles, so he's familiar with the offense and Justin Herbert. This should be one of the more high-scoring games of the weekend and Miami had to travel across country and won't have Jalen Ramsey in its secondary. Palmer should see softer 1-on-1 coverage as a result and could get open downfield for a long score.
Luke Musgrave, GB (+390 FanDuel)
I thought about going with Robert Tonyan in this game and approaching it with the "revenge game" theory. However, common sense took over and landed me on Musgrave, who I think is pretty underrated coming into the season. Christian Watson is out, so that should leave room over the middle for Musgrave to operate. While Jordan Love isn't a rookie, he has little real-game experience and that likely means he'll lean more on the safe, shorter patterns tight ends typically run.
PLAYER PROPS
Elijah Moore, CLE OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards (-130 DraftKings)
The Browns have had all offseason to figure out ways to get Moore involved in the offense and they should utilize him in a variety of ways. Some sites don't even have a line for Moore, which makes me wonder if they're really not sure what number to use here. Moore was never used properly in his short stint with the Jets and playing with Zach Wilson certainly didn't help his stats. I think this is a prop that could be over in the first half and if you can find any alternate, higher yardage props at increased odds, I'd take them (I couldn't find any as of Friday).
Van Jefferson, LAR Over 3.5 Receptions (+135 DraftKings)
In case you live under a rock, Cooper Kupp is on IR and out for four weeks, therefore Jefferson will be the top wideout for the Rams. I'd expect him to get at least eight targets in this matchup and he's the wide receiver with the best rapport with Matthew Stafford. Interestingly, in his last nine games of last season, Jefferson had three two-catch games and six three-catch games, only one game being a partial game with Matthew Stafford. Stafford has typically locked in one receiver (Cooper Kupp) and I like getting plus-odds here in a game where I can see Jefferson getting 5-6 catches.
Alexander Mattison, MIN OVER 57.5 Rushing Yards (+102 FanDuel)
Quick, can you tell me who the backup running back in Minnesota is? Mattison doesn't appear to have a lot of competition for carries and should log at least 15 out of the backfield Sunday. He's built to handle a full workload and could be used more in the passing game this season with the departure of Dalvin Cook. The Vikings never shied away from using Cook extensively and Mattison has little mileage, with just over 400 carries in four years as a professional. As a home favorite, the game flow suggests Mattison should get plenty of work for all four quarters. This prop is available on other sites for a couple of less rushing yards but at negative odds. The answer to the question at the top of this spot? Ty Chandler.
Sam Howell, WAS OVER 207.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
This prop is 212.5 for roughly the same odds on other sites so I would take this immediately if you like it. Terry McLaurin should play after logging full practices this week and Jahan Dotson provides a solid weapon on the other side of him. The Arizona Cardinals, on paper, are one of the worst teams in the league and have to go across the country to play their first game. I'm not sure what everyone expects out of Howell, but this number seems too low for a guy with a great tandem of receivers at his disposal.
