NFL Picks: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 10

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Published on November 6, 2023

NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 10

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are three, seven, six, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.

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NFL Week 10 Odds

BYES: Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins, Eagles

Week 10 Schedule

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-3.5) O/U OPENED BEARS -2.0/41.5

Indianapolis Colts (-2.0) at New England Patriots (Germany) O/U OPENED PATS -5.0/44.0

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.0) O/U 38.5 OPENED RAVENS -3.0/44.0

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.0) O/U 47.5 OPENED BENGALS -9.5/44.5

San Francisco 49ers (-3.0) at Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 44.5 OPENED 49ERS -1.0/44.5

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings O/U 41.0 OPENED VIKINGS -2.5/38

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) O/U 37.0 OPENED STEELERS -3.0/38.0

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.0) O/U 38.5 OPENED TITANS -1.0/38.5

Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals O/U 42.0 OPENED FALCONS -1.5/43.5

Detroit Lions (-1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers O/U 48.5 OPENED CHARGERS -2.5/48.5

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-15.5) O/U 39.5 OPENED COWBOYS -4.5/48.0

Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks (-6.0) O/U 45.0 OPENED SEAHAWKS -3.5/44.5

New York Jets (-2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders O/U 36.5 OPENED JETS -2.5/37.5

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-7.5) O/U 46.5 OPENED BILLS -6.0/46.5

Week 10 News

Week 10 observations

Highest point spread - Giants/Cowboys -15.5

Lowest point spread - Titans/Bucs -1.0

Highest total - Lions/Chargers 48.5

Lowest total - Jets/Raiders 36.5

3 games with totals over 46.0 - Texans/Bengals, Lions/Chargers, Broncos/Bills

5 games with totals of 40 or less - Browns/Ravens, Packers/Steelers, Titans/Bucs, Giants/Cowboys, Jets/Raiders

9 games with lines around -3.0 - Panthers/Bears, Colts/Patriots, 49ers/Jaguars, Saints/Vikings, Packers/Steelers, Titans/Bucs, Falcons/Cardinals, Lions/Chargers, Jets/Raiders

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NFL Week 10 Line Movement: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

In one of the biggest line moves of the season so far, this line opened Cowboys -4.5 in the summer and has moved a whopping 11 points up to -15.5. The game reopened at Cowboys -10 last week and then took the big move after the Daniel Jones injury news. The total has also taken a huge hit after opening at 48.0 and is now at 39.5.

The Giants are just about the worst team in the NFL and the injuries are too much for them to overcome.

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NFL Week 10 Line Movement: Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers were originally installed as -2.5 home favorites in this game and it peaked at -3.0 Week 1, but since then the Lions have exceeded expectations while the Chargers have been underwhelming as usual. The line now sits at Lions -1.5 and that is why I can see it going to Lions -3 or EVEN depending on Monday night.

The Monday night game could have an impact on this line as the Chargers are playing at the Jets. If the Chargers win big, it will move 1-2 points in favor of them. If the Chargers lose, I can see the line going the way of the Lions by 1-2 points.

The reason why I can see this moving, is if the Chargers lose to the Jets their playoff hopes will take a significant hit and the Brandon Staley rumors will get even stronger. It is a tough spot for the Lions who are not as good on the road, but then you also have the non-conference factor of the game.

The total is one of the highest this week at 48.5 and with an expectation of a low-scoring game between the Chargers/Jets I think it will come down to 46-47.

NFL Week 10 Line Movement: New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings

The line has moved a full five points and gone from Vikings -2.5 to Saints -2.5. I know the Vikings have some injuries with Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins, but the trade to get Joshua Dobbs already paid dividends with a huge win against the Falcons in Week 9.

The Saints should have crushed the Bears based on turnover differential, but only escaped with a seven-point win. The Saints have been much better on the road, which might have some impact on this line. But to see the Vikings as almost a field goal dog at home feels too rich.

The total has actually gone up in this game from 38.0 to 41.0.

NFL Week 10 Line Movement: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are starting to look like the best team in football after another huge win against the Seahawks while the Browns defense has been one of the best as well. The Browns have issues on offense, most notable the quarterback position which is also what has propped this number up for the Ravens.

The look ahead line was Ravens -3.0 and it started to creep up last week to -4.5, -5.0, -5.5, before landing on -6.0. I think we get to a full -7.0 in favor of the Ravens and if there is any change in the quarterback news for the Browns it could go even higher.

The total has taken a huge swing with the original line being 44.0 and now seeing a -5.5 drop to 38.5, which puts the implied game total at Ravens 22.25-16.25. I would look at the Browns team total going UNDER in this spot as they have struggled on offense while this Ravens defense has really turned on the gas.

NFL Week 10 Line Movement: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

This game is being played on a neutral site (Germany) even though the Patriots are listed as the official home team. The Colts catch a break as they do not have to go outdoors as a dome team to the cold of New England.

The look ahead line over the summer was Patriots -5, but this line has swung significantly in favor of the Colts despite having a backup quarterback in Gardner Minshew and a terrible defense. The line now sits at Colts -2.0, which feels inflated even though the Pats are a bottom-5 team at this point. The total is 43.5 and could be hard pressed to reach 23-20 type of game especially going overseas.

This is worst Patriots team in over 20 years as they are 2-7 and playing for a top-5 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Colts were gifted two pick sixes against the Panthers on Sunday, which masked the fact their offense did not play well at all.

The Colts defense has been very bad, but the Patriots offense has also been bad so it is hard to get a read on the game total. I still think this is a 20-17 type game that could go either way.

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