This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 1
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
Early observations on Week 1 lines
- The lines are very tight, only 1 game is higher than -7 with very little movement from opening numbers
- The road dogs are all very conservatively favored based on the history of home dogs in Week 1
- There is are only two totals over 48 and the average was 46.4 in Week 1 2022 versus 44.9 in Week 1 2023.
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NFL Week 1 Odds
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) O/U 54.5 Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) O/U 39.5
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) O/U 44
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns O/U 47.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) at Indianapolis Colts O/U 45.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) O/U 45.5
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-4) O/U 41
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 40.5
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (-6) O/U 38
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1) O/U 43
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-4) O/U 44
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-2) O/U 51
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at New England Patriots O/U 45
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) O/U 46.5
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at New York Giants O/U 46.5 Buffalo Bills (-3) at New York Jets O/U 46.5
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NFL Week 1 Line Movement: Carolina Panthers 
at Atlanta Falcons 
The largest totals move of the week is in Panthers/Falcons as the opening total was 44 and has dropped 4.5 points to 39.5. There are two reasons for the total dropping so much, the first is the public has really fallen on their perception of the Panthers offense. Their season win total UNDER has been one of the most heavily bet futures along with their QB/RB/WR combo being regarded as one of the worst in the NFL. The second reason is the perceived game script that the Falcons are going to run the ball a ton in this game with Bijan Robinson.
The projected score of this game is now 21.5-18.0 which does not leave much room to go even lower, but if the Panthers only score 13-16 and the Falcons land between 20-23 the UNDER can still hit.
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NFL Week 1 Line Movement: Jacksonville Jaguars 
at Indianapolis Colts 
The line opened Jaguars -3.5 and started to move up on 8/24 when Anthony Richardson was announced as the starting quarterback. This was expected so sharp bettors had already jumped on the Jags at -3.5. The line moved again on 9/4 up to Jaguars -5 and I think it could hit as high as -6. The line has moved in the Jags' direction again as Jonathan Taylor is on the PUP list.
The total has also moved going from 43.5 to 45 and now 45.5. The interesting part of this is I would have thought it would have gone down based on the Colts' offensive situation. This shows how strong of a position that is on Jacksonville and even though they are a divisional road favorite. Teasers will drive the numbers oftentimes in situations like this because getting the Jags at EVEN money looks so attractive.
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NFL Week 1 Line Movement: Arizona Cardinals 
at Washington Commanders 
This game opened Washington -6 and stayed there until the Cardinals cut Colt McCoy and traded for Joshua Dobbs. The line immediately moved to -7. The Commanders are not expected to be a great team, but the Cardinals are now in position to be the worst team with a potential of 0 to 3 wins.
The big move reflecting the Cardinals future is the total dropping from 41 to 38. Once the Cardinals quarterback situation changed, the total took a big dip and you rarely see an NFL total go below 38 this early in the season. But the Cardinals could be one of the worst offensive teams in football and their team total is sitting at 15.5 which is in between the key numbers of 14 and 17. It is conceivable that the Cardinals are the lowest-scoring team in Week 1 with less than 10 points.
NFL Week 1 Line Movement: Green Bay Packers 
at Chicago Bears 
This line opened Bears -3 and immediately dropped to -2.5. The recent line moves toward the Packers are based on the preseason confidence in Jordan Love and the Packers' offense. It is now sitting at Bears -1 and I can see this landing on PICK by kickoff.
The interesting part of this game is the total moving down from 45 to 43. 45 did feel high considering both quarterbacks and the team changes. This game does have a feel of 23-20 on either side. I would not be surprised if the Packers end up winning this game by 3-7 points as the Bears' defense is still questionable.
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NFL Week 1 Line Movement: Los Angeles Rams 
at Seattle Seahawks 
My have things changed in just one season. Remember Week 1 last year where the Bills were small favorites against the Rams and blew them out, while the Broncos were heavy road favorites against the Seahawks and got blown out also.
Now we have the Rams at the Seahawks which opened -5.5 and moved to -6 immediately. It bounced around between -5 and -6 until August 24. It went to -4.5 and even to -4 before going back up to -5.5. It could end up -7 if the news about Cooper Kupp ends up having him out in Week 1.
