This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks and Predictions: Week 1 Best Game and Player Prop Picks
Games
New York Jets +4.5 (BetMGM)
I don't think people take into account the quality of the Jets defense, or that Aaron Rodgers is finally healthy. There is a good argument that Breece Hall is just as talented as Christian McCaffrey and I believe there is a chance the spread actually comes into play. Look for a close game here as I find it highly unlikely the 49ers ever lead by more than a touchdown.
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Arizona Cardinals +6.5 (DraftKings)
I'd like to think I have a decent pulse on my Bills and heading into the season I'm a bit worried. The first team looked awful in the preseason games (they were terrible during the Jim Kelly preseason years to be fair) and there are myriad questions surrounding the team. Wide receiver is definitely an issue, and the replacement for Matt Milano is a local kid who everyone is rooting for and is actually terrible. The latter is the part I'm most concerned with. Take the Cardinals and the points.
Player Anytime Touchdowns
Christian McCaffrey -160 (DraftKings)
McCaffrey is almost a weekly lock for this wager as he scored in 16 out of 19 games last season (84.2 percent). This is probably the worst matchup he could have as he faces a tough Jets' defense that arguably the best in the league. However, the 49ers are a home favorite and are expected to score around 24 points. If San Francisco scores three touchdowns, it is almost a guarantee McCaffrey has at least one of them. This line is as high as -200 on other sites.
Marvin Harrison +160 (FanDuel), Keon Coleman +260 (FanDuel)
I like going rookie vs. rookie here since no matter who has the ball, we have a chance to win. Harrison should easily lead the Cardinals in targets while Coleman is a huge red zone target capable of hitting a long touchdown as well. The Bills don't have a No.1 receiver (they're expecting Coleman to be that guy) and outside of Trey McBride, Arizona does not have a ton of receiving weapons. This game has a healthy over/under of 47.5.
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Jameson Williams +240 (FanDuel)
The Lions are favored at home by 3.5 points and this game has the biggest over/under total of the week at 52.5. It would be easy to take someone like Amon-Ra St. Brown or David Montgomery but I will take someone who has much greater odds. Williams is capable of hitting a long home run at any time and should see more targets as Josh Reynolds now calls Denver home. If you buy into this sort of thing, his teammates have raved about him during camp. While his three touchdowns a season ago don't jump off the page, he did miss the first four games of the season.
Adonai Mitchell +360 (DraftKings), Alex Pierce +340 (FanDuel)
The Colts ruled out Josh Downs, which elevates both Pierce and Mitchell for targets in this game. I like hedging and taking both since I do not have a strong lean towards either. Mitchell probably has more talent, but Pierce has had extra time to work out with Anthony Richardson and build a rapport with him. You only need one of these players to make money and the potential bonus is that they both find the end zone making this a nice upside play.
Player Props
Bo Nix Over 200.5 Passing Yards (FanDuel)
Nix has looked excellent this preseason and playing in Sean Payton's offense can't hurt. While he will play on the road here, the former University of Oregon star thrived in the Pacific Northwest and is on the older side for a rookie at 24 years old. He has a solid arm, throwing 879 passes over his last two seasons at college. I was expecting this number to more in the 220-yard range with Payton calling the offense.
Tyreek Hill Over 97.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
Hill had a monstrous 2023 season and could challenge the 2,000-yard mark once again in 2024. What seems curious to me is how he started extremely hot, but then cooled down over the final part of the season. Hill did not have a 100-yard performance over his final five games after starting the season very strong. Hill had over 100 receiving yards in eight of his first 12 games, including rat least 112 receiving yards in each of his first five home games. Maybe Hill got tired down the stretch or was nursing more of an injury than previously thought? The important thing now is he looks completely healthy and should again come out of the gates strong.
Garrett Wilson Over 5.5 Receptions (FanDuel)
Aaron Rodgers heavily targeted Davante Adams during his time in Green Bay and I expect those targets to smoothly transition Wilson's way. Looking at last season, Wilson caught at least five passes in 10 of the Jets' 17 games and that was with much less talent at quarterback. While the 49ers are a solid defense, I will back a healthy Aaron Rodgers with the talent of Wilson. It's worth noting that the 49ers were the second-best defense in allowing fantasy points to opposing running backs last season while only ranking 21st against opposing wide receivers.
