NFL Picks: NFL Player Props and Touchdown Props for Week 11

NFL Picks: NFL Player Props and Touchdown Props for Week 11

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Betting: NFL Player Props Anytime Touchdown Scorers for NFL Week 11

Last article: 0-4, -4.65 units 

Season: 61-85, -32.54 units

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Parris Campbell over 3.5 receptions, -156 (FanDuel)

Campbell appeared to be on the verge of a breakout following back-to-back games vs. the Jaguars and Titans when he recorded 11 and 12 targets, resulting in 7-57-1 and 10-70-1 receiving lines. That progress was halted for two weeks when Sam Ehlinger was installed as the Colts quarterback, but Campbell predictably re-appeared last week with Matt Ryan back at the controls, garnering nine targets for another positive 7-76-1 line. While the Eagles run defense was seemingly exposed during their recent MNF game vs. the Commanders (meaning Jonathan Taylor will likely be very busy here), and the Eagles have one of the best pass defenses in the league (ranking #2 in passing yards allowed per game), it seems likely based on recent history that Campbell will be at least moderately involved once again, and that dynamic could well continue the rest of the season as long as Ryan remains at QB.

Parris Campbell anytime touchdown, +360 (FanDuel)

As shown, Campbell has scored a touchdown in each of his last three starts with Matt Ryan at quarterback, and I just think this number is a little too generous with those results in mind. He seems the second most-likely Colt to score after Jonathan Taylor, and the most likely to score through the air.

Stefon Diggs over 89.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)

Diggs has covered this total in five straight games (and 7-of-9 this season), while failing to record double-digit targets just once during that span. He has also covered this number in all four of his home games. Little reason not to expect the same outcome once again, especially with Buffalo looking to rebound following their tough home loss vs. the Vikings last week.

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Nick Folk over 1.5 field goals, -110 (DraftKings)

Folk has recorded an incredible nine field goals over his last two games, with one of those games being a 5-FG performance vs. these same Jets back in Week 8. Also, just based on overall season performance, Folk ranks as the #4 kicker in terms of fantasy points, with the Jets ranking 25th vs. opposing kickers. Good spot, especially with the Patriots listed as a 3-point home favorite.

Justin Fields over 70.5 rushing yards, -110 (FanDuel)

Fields has gone nuclear in the rushing department, logging double-digit rushing attempts (with many designed runs) in four of his last five games, easily covering this number in those same four games. With Fields now the clear focal point of the Bears offense, that pattern seems likely to continue, especially in a dome environment vs. the defensively challenged Falcons.

Justin Fields anytime touchdown, +110 (DraftKings)

Boosted by his new-and-improved role in the Bears rushing game, Fields has now scored a touchdown in four consecutive games and figures to have another good shot at the end zone here. Decent play at the plus price.

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Brian Robinson over 66.5 rushing yards, -110 (FanDuel)

Fresh off their dominant rushing performance vs. the Eagles on MNF (when Robinson logged 26 carries), they now face the much softer Texans run defense, who rank dead-last in the NFL, allowing 181.8 rushing yards per game (over 20 yards higher than the next-worst team). As such, Robinson seems a good bet to cover this number just based on volume alone.

Brian Robinson anytime touchdown, +125 (DraftKings)

Given Robinson's apparent lead role in the Commanders rushing attack, along with the Texans propensity to allow rushing touchdowns (13 rushing TD's allowed in nine games), Robinson seems a good bet to reach the end-zone at the nice plus price.

Brian Robinson over 15.5 rushing attempts, -110 (DraftKings)

Again, with Robinson logging a healthy 26 carries in a worse matchup last week, and with the Commanders almost certain to employ similar tactics in this game, I think it's likely he can reach 16 rushing attempts in this plum matchup.

Tony Pollard over 43.5 rushing yards, -125 (DraftKings)

With Pollard having logged 131 and 115 rushing yards (along with four touchdowns) over his last two games, this looks like a very attractive number regardless of whether Ezekiel Elliot returns for this game. Given Pollard's success with Elliot on the sidelines (and with the Cowboys perhaps bringing Elliot back slowly anyway), I just don't see how Pollard relinquishes the primary role right now. Even if so, Pollard was a threat to exceed this total on smaller volume earlier in the year. Strong play.

Kadarius Toney over 53.5 receiving yards, -113 (FanDuel)

Toney has immediately asserted himself in the Chiefs' passing offense, being brought in slowly in his first game after the trade (two catches on two targets), but then becoming more involved last week following the early injury to JuJu Smith-Schuster (who is out again this week), producing a 4-57-1 line (on five targets) in just his second start. Now, with another week to prepare (and with the coaches' knowledge that he'd be starting this week), I'm expecting another uptick here.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Walter Hand
Walter is a former Las Vegas oddsmaker, and longtime successful fantasy player in both football and baseball.
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