NFL Picks: NFL Week 7 Player Props and Best Bets

NFL Picks: NFL Week 7 Player Props and Best Bets

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Picks: NFL Week 7 Player Props, Teasers, and Picks

Last article: 1-2, -1.10 units 

Season: 37-54, -22.31 units

Bengals -0.5 into Dolphins -1.5, -120 (DraftKings)

Good spot for a two-team, six-point teaser, as both the Bengals and Dolphins appears very likely to win their home matchups over the Falcons and Steelers.

Travis Etienne over 68.5 rushing + receiving yards, -114 (FanDuel)

I've been on Etienne each of the last two weeks, as he definitely seems to be working his way into a larger role for the Jaguars, now getting roughly equal carries with James Robinson in the running game while retaining his passing game role. In each of those last two games, Etienne has broken off big plays and covered his rushing total by halftime, so if anything his role should continue to grow this week. That bodes well vs. the Giants, as they rank 28th in rushing yards allowed. I opted for the combo prop here (as opposed to Etienne's rushing prop at 51.5 yards) as it's only 17 yards higher, and Etienne has recorded 18+ receiving yards in five of his six games. It also gives us access to all of Etienne's plays, which is useful because he's a threat to break a long gainer at any time.

Amon-Ra St. Brown over 6.5 receptions, +102 (FanDuel)

St. Brown is finally back healthy after missing some time (and/or being limited) with an ankle injury. He returned vs. the Patriots prior to the Lions going on bye last week, and now has had an additional two weeks of rest, so it seems likely he's ready to return to his usual high-volume role this week. He should see a lot of work in this game, not only because he's the focal point of the Lions passing game to begin with, but also because Josh Reynolds (who led the team in receiving with St. Brown out) has been limited in practice this week, while top receiving back D'Andre Swift appears set to miss this game. It also helps that the Lions are a +6.5 point underdog, and with their bad defense are generally going to be involved in shootout-type games. Favorable spot for St. Brown in his much-awaited return to good health.

Tony Pollard over 53.5 rushing + receiving yards, -120 (DraftKings)

Pollard has been more involved this year (in the final year of his contract), working his way into more of a timeshare with starter Ezekiel Elliot, and much like Etienne above, he's clearly a threat to break a long play at any time. That's even more true vs. the Lions, who rank 32nd in rushing yards allowed, and 26th in passing yards allowed. Good chance Pollard can eclipse this total in what looks to be a very favorable spot.

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Romeo Doubs anytime touchdown, +220 (FanDuel)

Doubs appeared on the verge of a breakout recently, but has been disappointing the last couple of weeks despite remaining very much involved from a target standpoint. That being said, he's clearly been a top red-zone target for Aaron Rodgers, while the Commanders rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to WR's, a metric that incorporates touchdowns pretty well. Just seems too generous a number for a player with a reasonably high likelihood of scoring, with a favorable matchup to boot.

David Njoku over 41.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)

Njoku has emerged as a top receiving threat for the Browns this year, now covering this total in each if his last four games. He now faces the Ravens, who rank 28th in passing yards allowed, and also rank 20th in fantasy points allowed to TE's. Good matchup in this game where the Browns are listed as +6.5 point underdog.

Hayden Hurst anytime touchdown, +270 (FanDuel)

I saw a blurb this week where Hurst said that he had this game "circled on his calendar," because he felt that he was underused in Atlanta and wanted to make a statement in this game. What better statement than scoring a touchdown against your former team? Obviously, the Bengals are aware of this situation, and will likely be looking to get Hurst the ball in red-zone situations today (as they are apt to do anyway, with two touchdowns in his last three games). The Falcons also happen to rank 26th in fantasy points allowed to TE's. Great spot for Hurst this week.

Hayden Hurst over 30.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)

Let's also take a shot with Hurst's receiving total this week, as he figures to be a little more active than usual, while the Falcons rank 31st in passing yards allowed.

Tee Higgins over 70.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)

Higgins has covered this number in three of his five starts this year (not counting the one where he didn't play) , with excuses in the other two games (he left early in Week One, and was reportedly only 85% last week following his recent spat with injuries). He and Chase are reportedly both full-speed right now, with neither player listed on the injury report this week. That bodes well vs. the Falcons, who rank 31st in passing yards allowed this year. The Bengals may also be looking to get Higgins a little more involved this week after he was forced out of the game plan recently (just a hunch). In any case, Higgins is still being listed roughly ten yards lower than Chase, and should probably be listed more equally as long as both players are in good health (they have almost identical target rates over the last two years, and are comparable in talent).

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Alec Pierce over 44.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)

I saw a very interesting tweet this week, saying that on the particular types of routes that Pierce generally runs, the Titans have given up numerous big plays. That adds to the overall good matchup, as the Titans rank 32nd in passing yards allowed this year. It's also notable that Colts QB Matt Ryan threw 58 passes last week in what turned out to be the Colts' best offensive production of the season, scoring 34 points in a win over the Jaguars. Taken in conjunction with the Colts poor rushing stats, it seems likely the Colts may continue to put the ball in the air a little bit more moving forward, while Pierce himself has been coming on of late, and appears to be one of the more favored options in the Colts passing attack. Good spot for the rookie WR.

Alec Pierce longest reception over 19.5 yards, -110 (DraftKings)

In addition to the dynamic mentioned above, Pierce has recorded long catches of 30+ yards in three of his five games this year, and this may be his most favorable spot yet.

Foster Moreau over 25.5 receiving yards, -120 (DraftKings)

Moreau has missed a lot of time recently, but returns without an injury designation following the Raiders' bye week, while starting TE Darren Waller remains out for this game. That should translate into a decent-sized role for Moreau this week, who has covered this total in both of his games played this year. It also may help that WR Hunter Renfrow has been limited in practice this week.

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Isiah Pacheco over 31.5 rushing yards, -110 (FanDuel)

The Chiefs surprisingly announced that they are making a change at RB this week, publicly giving Isiah Pacheco the starting RB role (though CEH will still be involved). Just based on that alone, Pacheco would seem likely to get 10+ carries, which I'm guessing will be enough to send him over this total (Pacheco has looked sharp in limited opportunities this year).

Kenny Pickett over 223.5 passing yards, -115 (DraftKings)

Pickett is back at starter this week after being forced out early in last week's game due to concussion protocols. He's recorded full practices this week and appears ready to go, while the Steelers figure to be very active through the air in this game, not only because they're +7.5 point underdogs at Miami, but also because the Dolphins are most vulnerable in that area, ranking 24th in passing yards allowed. It's also worth remembering that Pickett threw 52 passes (for 327 yards) in a blowout loss at Buffalo a couple of weeks ago.

George Pickens over 43.5 receiving yards, -115 (DraftKings)

Pickens has been emerging as a much larger part of the Steelers' passing game in recent weeks, a time period that coincides with Pickett taking over as the starter. He appears set for a solid outing vs. the Dolphins in a game where the Steelers are very likely to be playing from behind.

Diontae Johnson over 5.5 receptions, +120 (DraftKings)

While Pickens has emerged as (perhaps) Pickett's preferred receiver, Johnson remains a favorite to lead the team in targets, and it would be no surprise to see him return to double-digit targets in this particular game. Good price on him getting to six receptions in a game where Pittsburgh should be throwing a lot.

Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions, -105 (DraftKings)

Hill has been a target monster his year, covering this number in five of his six starts last year, while recording double-digit reception in half of his starts. Meanwhile, the Steelers rank 30th in passing yards allowed this year, and now get their starting QB Tua Tagovailoa back for this game. While Tyreek tends to catch a lot of short passes anyway, that might be even more the case this week, as the Dolphins will likely be looking to get the ball out as quickly as possible in order to minimize contact on Tagovailoa following his concussion issues. Plum spot for one of the league's best receivers.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Walter Hand
Walter is a former Las Vegas oddsmaker, and longtime successful fantasy player in both football and baseball.
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