NFL Picks: NFL Week 8 Betting Odds and Key Line Movement

NFL Picks: NFL Week 8 Betting Odds and Key Line Movement

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Week 8 Betting Odds and Key Line Movement

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention. 

Now that we have eight weeks in the books, we have more significant injury fallout from Week 7 which will impact the lines in Week 8. There are games in which the side has moved at least 5.5 points or more. 

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Latest Odds For This Week in The NFL

For more, take a look at NFL Week 8 odds.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers O/U 45.0

Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) O/U 39.5

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) O/U 42.0

Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) O/U 43.0

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions O/U 50.5

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) O/U 49.0

Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) @ New Orleans Saints O/U 48.5

New England Patriots (-2.5) @ New York Jets O/U 41.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-11.0) O/U 44.5

Tennessee Titans (-1.5) @ Houston Texans O/U 41.0

Washington Commanders @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.0) O/U 40.5

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) @ Los Angeles Rams O/U 43.0

New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) O/U 45.5

Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills (-10.5) O/U 47.5

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0) @ Cleveland Browns O/U 47.5   

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NFL Week 8 Line Movement: Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Now that we are close to the halfway point in the NFL season, we are really seeing some teams take shape and a lot of unexpected things happening. The first one is the collapse of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they have struggled all season, but lost outright on the road to the Steelers and the Panthers.  

They have a short week and have to face the Baltimore Ravens. The line was originally Tampa Bay -3.5, but has moved from -3.0, to -1.5, +1.0, +1.5, +2.0 all in the last 7 days. I am normally a fade-the-public kind of guy, but the Bucs are a complete mess right now and I would not be surprised if this line ended up at Ravens -3.0.  The interesting part is the total has actually gone up from 44.0 to 45.0 despite how bad the Bucs offense has been. 

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NFL Week 8 Line Movement: Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars

The game has seen significant line movement on both the side and the total since it opened. The Broncos were -6.5 with a total of 47.0 when the season opened and it is now Jaguars -3.5 with a total of 39.0. That is a 10-point move on the side and 8 point move on the total. 

My how things have changed as the Broncos offense has collapsed much like the Bucs, but the Jaguars have also played better than expected. It does feel like the numbers are where they should be except I can see the total moving down even more to 36-37 which is what happened to Broncos/Jets last week. 

NFL Week 8 Line Movement: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

The NFL can be wild and we have seen that with the Panthers who have fired their head coach, defensive coordinator, started their 3rd quarterback, and traded their best player all within about a week. After getting destroyed by the 49ers and Rams, the Panthers came up with an incredible win against the Bucs at home Sunday shocking everyone as +13.5 home dogs. 

There is now a sense of optimism with Carolina who originally opened -1.5 and have seen this become Falcons -6.0. The line has moved down slightly from -6.5 and I think we could see some steam on the Panthers to get this down around -4 or -5.  Something very interesting is that the total moved 1.0 points from 41 to 42 today and I think we could see another 1-2 point jump.

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NFL Week 8 Line Movement: Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles

This line opened originally at Eagles -3 and is now all the way up to -11.0. It has gone from 9.5 to 11.0 in the last week and I can see it climbing even further upward to as high as -13.0. The Eagles have cemented themselves as the clear #1 team in the NFC and the Steelers are coming off a Sunday night loss in Miami. I still think we could get a Bills/Steelers-like outcome in which the Eagles just run it up on them in the first half. 

NFL Week 8 Line Movement: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

This game opened Rams -4.5, but has crept over towards the 49ers over the last week. It has gone from Rams -2.5 to 49ers -2.0.  The total has moved from 40 (which is very low) up to 43 points. 

The last time we saw these two teams play, the 49ers' defense had its way with Matthew Stafford and the Rams. But the Chiefs and Falcons have just shredded this Niners defense and the Rams are coming off a bye. The problem is the Rams still have major issues on the offensive line and at wide receiver which the 49ers defense should be able to take advantage of. 

NFL Week 8 Line Movement: Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills

The final game to review this week is the Packers/Bills in which the Bills are now -10.5 home favorites after opening -4.5. This is the largest point spread that Aaron Rodgers has been in his career. I think it is still a smash spot for the Bills who are coming off the bye. The Packers are just lost on offense and have no identity after losing three straight and barely beating the Patriots at home.  

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Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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