This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We're back at it for our Week 14 Underdog Pick'em selections. By now, we've settled into a nice rhythm, so we'll just take a minute to highlight the primary tools I used to reach my picks and reference throughout the article:
Fantasy points allowed vs. Position
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Higher
Brandin Cooks – higher than 25.5 receiving yards
Cooks was on the field on Thanksgiving for the first time since Week 4. On the surface, his line wasn't impressive, as he totaled only 16 yards on three catches. However, he drew seven targets on only 16 routes run. We should see his role expand in Week 14, and it comes in a dream matchup against the Bengals, a secondary that has been among the leakiest in the league. In the last four weeks, Cincinnati has allowed the fifth-highest yards per target and the most half-PPR fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.
Jonathon Brooks- higher than 16.5 rushing yards
The Panthers have unsurprisingly shown a desire to get Books progressively more involved. In his second pro game in Week 13, Brooks saw his snap rate jump from nine to 21 percent and his carry total jump from two to six. He topped this prop in Week 13, and we should expect to see his role continue to expand. Also interesting is that Chuba Hubbard lost a key fumble in overtime, which cost the Panthers the win against the Buccaneers. We still aren't likely to see Brooks lead the backfield, but the gap in workload should continue to shrink.
Jonnu Smith - higher than 49.5 receiving yards
With players like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in the mix, it's hard to believe that the Miami offense is running through Smith. But across the last four weeks, he's commanded targets at a team-leading 22.8 percent clip, 4.7 percentage points more than the next closest player on the team (Hill). Smith has also topped this number in three straight games. A matchup against the Jets may have been a concern at the start of the season, but they're an average unit at this point with a lack of motivation to put together their best performances down the stretch.
Jerry Jeudy – higher than 66.5 receiving yards
There are a lot of things to like about Jeudy this week, even without considering that he's coming off of a career-best performance. Cedric Tillman (concussion) remains sidelined, which will condense targets between Jeudy, Elijah Moore and David Njoku. Meanwhile, since Jameis Winston has taken over under center, Jeudy has a minimum of 73 receiving yards.
The only downside is a tough matchup against the Steelers, but that's not nearly enough to deter taking the higher side of this prop.
Calvin Ridley – higher than 64.5 receiving yards
The Will Levis to Ridley connection has been a roller coaster this season, and relying on it should cause some uneasy feelings. The Titans draw a very favorable matchup against the Jaguars, however, as Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-highest yards per target to opposing wide receivers in the last four weeks. Meanwhile, Ridley leads the league in air yards in that span. That combination suggests this should be a big game for Ridley.
Lower
Garrett Wilson – lower than 58.5 receiving yards
There are a few teams that seem to be in danger of completely spiraling into an unproductive mess. The Jets have been well on their way and are starting to lose key players, with both Breece Hall (knee) and Sauce Gardner (hamstring) listed as doubtful. There's also been rumors of Aaron Rodgers sitting. While those have been rebuffed and he'll start Sunday, it's fair to question what the offense will look like. In addition to be held to yardage lower than this prop in three straight contests, he's also been held to 57 receiving yards or fewer in half of his 12 games on the campaign.
Kendre Miller – lower than 29.5 rushing yards
There's not a great way to project Miller's role in what projects to be his first game since Week 8 and only the third of the season. The coaching staff has changed since then and Taysom Hill (knee) is no longer in the picture, so Miller could reasonably have a role. He's yet to prove he can handle any reasonable workload in the NFL, so I'll continue to pick against him until proven otherwise.
DK Metcalf – lower than 62.5 receiving yards
Historical trends against a team aren't an ideal way to analyze props or fantasy football decisions, because personnel and schemes change so frequently. However, it's clear that throughout Metcalf's career, Arizona's defensive scheme has been to eliminate his impact on the game. In 10 career games against the Cardinals, he's caught only 46.6 percent of his targets while averaging 30.4 yards per game. In those 10 games, he's never topped this prop.
