This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Mercifully, there's only one consensus pick this week, but you'll be dismayed to learn it is again the Jaguars. Fade it if you like, but then you're laying double-digit points with the Rams at your own risk. I'm on an island the most often with the Saints, Eagles and Broncos.
| Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills +4 at Browns | Browns | Bills | Browns | Bills | Bills |
| Chiefs -3 at Titans | Chiefs | Titans | Titans | Titans | Chiefs |
| Ravens +3 at Dolphins | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Dolphins | Ravens |
| Jaguars +11.5 at Rams | Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars |
| Patriots +1.5 at Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Patriots | Bengals | Patriots |
| Seahawks -3 at Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts | Seahawks | Colts |
| Lions +7 at Packers | Lions | Packers | Lions | Packers | Packers |
| Saints pick'em at Bears | Bears | Bears | Saints | Bears | Bears |
| Eagles +2.5 at Giants | Giants | Giants | Eagles | Giants | Giants |
| Panthers -2 at Cardinals | Cardinals | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers |
| Broncos -7 at Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Broncos | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Texans +6.5 at 49ers | 49ers | Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans |
| Chargers -4.5 at Raiders | Raiders | Raiders | Chargers | Chargers | Raiders |
| Jets +9 at Falcons | Falcons | Jets | Falcons | Jets | Jets |
| Best Bet | Cardinals | Giants | Broncos | Texans | Giants |
| Last Week's Record | 9-5-1 | 8-6-1 | 7-7-1 | 4-10-1 | 7-7-1 |
| 2013 Record | 31-28-4 | 25-34-4 | 25-34-4 | 28-31-4 | 33-26-4 |
| Best Bet Record | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| 2013 Consensus Pick Record | 4-9-2 | ||||
| 2012 |
Mercifully, there's only one consensus pick this week, but you'll be dismayed to learn it is again the Jaguars. Fade it if you like, but then you're laying double-digit points with the Rams at your own risk. I'm on an island the most often with the Saints, Eagles and Broncos.
| Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills +4 at Browns | Browns | Bills | Browns | Bills | Bills |
| Chiefs -3 at Titans | Chiefs | Titans | Titans | Titans | Chiefs |
| Ravens +3 at Dolphins | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Dolphins | Ravens |
| Jaguars +11.5 at Rams | Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars |
| Patriots +1.5 at Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Patriots | Bengals | Patriots |
| Seahawks -3 at Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts | Seahawks | Colts |
| Lions +7 at Packers | Lions | Packers | Lions | Packers | Packers |
| Saints pick'em at Bears | Bears | Bears | Saints | Bears | Bears |
| Eagles +2.5 at Giants | Giants | Giants | Eagles | Giants | Giants |
| Panthers -2 at Cardinals | Cardinals | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers |
| Broncos -7 at Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Broncos | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Texans +6.5 at 49ers | 49ers | Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans |
| Chargers -4.5 at Raiders | Raiders | Raiders | Chargers | Chargers | Raiders |
| Jets +9 at Falcons | Falcons | Jets | Falcons | Jets | Jets |
| Best Bet | Cardinals | Giants | Broncos | Texans | Giants |
| Last Week's Record | 9-5-1 | 8-6-1 | 7-7-1 | 4-10-1 | 7-7-1 |
| 2013 Record | 31-28-4 | 25-34-4 | 25-34-4 | 28-31-4 | 33-26-4 |
| Best Bet Record | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| 2013 Consensus Pick Record | 4-9-2 | ||||
| 2012 Record | 110-140-6 | 124-126-6 | 121-129-6 | 143-107-6 | 123-127-6 |
| 2011 Record | 121-128-7 | 134-115-7 | 124-125-7 | 123-126-7 | 127-122-7 |
| 2010 Record | 129-122-5 | 134-117-5 | 126-125-5 | 136-115-5 | 134-117-5 |
| 2009 Record | 123-130-3 | 132-121-3 | 131-122-3 | 130-123-3 | 126-127-3 |
| 2008 Record | 132-114-10 | 128-118-10 | 124-122-10 | 125-121-10 | 130-116-10 |
| 2007 Record | 127-120 | 118-129 | 127-120 | N/A | 130-117 |
| 2006 Record | 118-129 | N/A | 139-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2005 Record | 121-126 | N/A | 127-120 | N/A | N/A |
| 2004 Record | 124-124 | N/A | 130-118 | N/A | N/A |
| 2003 Record | 121-126 | 118-129 | 124-123 | N/A | N/A |
| 2002 Record | 113-136 | 123-126 | 141-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2001 Record | 124-113 | 117-120 | 118-119 | N/A | N/A |
| 2000 Record | 123-117 | 134-106 | 141-99 | N/A | N/A |
Consensus Picks
Last week we went 0-2 on consensus picks to drop our record on the year to 4-9-2. This week we have one consensus pick - the Jaguars.
Comments:
| Writer | Comment |
| Erickson | Crap, there I go picking the Jaguars again. But it's against another crappy team, so either way I'm stuck taking a bad team. To paraphrase The Wire - the Jags are bad, but I don't think that they're "special bad." Their defense is actually reasonably strong, and they get Justin Blackmon back this week, which should at least draw some coverage away from Cecil Shorts. ... As far as the Cardinals-Panthers, I think the Cards have a pretty good defense, and they've had just one home game, where they beat a pretty good Lions team. I'm not sure why they're getting points, but I'll take them... I don't like the KC/TEN game, because at some point the Chiefs are going to get their comeuppance, but I also think Fitzpatrick will commit the first Titans turnover of the year - that's what he was put on this earth to do. |
| Pianowski | Love seeing the Giants giving less than the standard three; Philly has just as many problems. And while I don't have much hope for Big Blue, schedule and timing have played significantly into the poor start. |
| Liss | I went against the grain on a few of these picks (ATL, DEN, NO) and am on an island three times as a result. This is also known as going with the grain as far as most bettors are concerned, but not in this contrarian group. Put differently, I'm such a contrarian, I'm a contrarian to the contrarians, making me Mr. Conventional Wisdom. |
| Stopa | I wasn't as close to a doughnut in Week 4 as I first thought, but four wins on a 15 game slate is ugly, so it's back to the drawing board. I've gotten away from some of the things that have worked in the past - fading the public, prediction models like Massey Peabody, so I'm incorporating more of that going forward. But really, you don't want to hear anything else from me until I get back on track. |
| Del Don | Not the easiest week, to say the least... I rarely like to switch picks, but I did so with the Packers here... As someone who's winless with my best bets, it seems fitting to back the Giants this week. |
The players:
•Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Value Meter. Covers and roots for the Bengals.
•Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 and 2011 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.
•Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and Surviving the Week in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.
•Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, 2010, 2012 Staff Picks Champ, Writes Working the Wire. Roots for the Bills.
•Dalton Del Don: Fantasy Expert for Yahoo! Sports, 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the 49ers.
