Week 11 was largely a Survivor safe harbor. Our pot-odds play didn't come through as the overwhelmingly popular Patriots handled the Jets no problem, but the top-8 Survivor options won (some more easily than others), so unless you did something reckless, congrats on surviving yet another week.
In my pool, just one was knocked out (on the Falcons, of all teams). Of the original 451 entrants, 41 remain (9.1 percent).
On to Week 12.
Before picking a Survivor team each week, be sure to consult our NFL injury report and the latest fantasy football news. Also checkout the Weekly Projections to see how this week's matchups shape up.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
Odds from BetMGM. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players up to $1,500 in bonus bets.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | TITANS | 28.9% | 750 | 88.2% | 3.40 |
| RAVENS | Jets | 28.1% | 750 | 88.2% | 3.31 |
| 49ERS | Panthers | 26.0% | 312.5 | 75.8% | 6.31 |
| LIONS | Giants | 9.8% | 562.5 | 84.9% | 1.48 |
| Patriots | BENGALS | 2.0% | 372.5 | 78.8% | 0.43 |
| Bills | TEXANS | 1.9% | 257.5 | 72.0% | 0.53 |
| Jaguars | CARDINALS | 1.6% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.69 |
| Eagles | COWBOYS | 1.4% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.52 |
| PACKERS | Vikings | 0.9% | 270 | 73.0% | 0.24 |
| BEARS | Steelers | 0.7% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.31 |
| RAMS | Buccaneers | 0.5% | 292.5 | 74.5% | 0.13 |
| RAIDERS | Browns | 0.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.19 |
| Falcons | SAINTS | 0.3% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.14 |
| CHIEFS | Colts | 0.2% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.09 |
Home teams in CAPS.
With three teams bunched in the high 20-percent range of ownership, there is no pot-odds play this week. And as that suggests, there are plenty of good options ... if they're available.
We used the Seahawks (Week 10), Lions (Week 4) and Ravens (Week 2), so that means a pivot to the Patriots. For those who took the Patriots last week, the 49ers are a solid option too.
The Bills, Eagles and Packers seem like decent bets, though not likely available.
If the teams below are unavailable, throw out some options in the comments and we'll hash it out.
Picks are in order of preference.
MY PICKS
Seattle Seahawks (at Texans)
Seattle is tough on the road and faces not only the worst team in the league but one that has lost nine consecutive at home. There's a slight chance the Seahawks might overlook the Titans, but after losing last week, Seattle likely will be ready to beat up on somebody. The Titans are the perfect punching bag.
Detroit Lions (vs. Giants)
The Giants don't have much going for them, though they weren't awful last week against the Packers. This week, the Lions return home looking to get back on track after scoring just nine points at Philadelphia, their fewest since Week 7 2023. New York's horrendous defense is just what they need to get right. Jaxson Dart could return for the Giants, but it probably won't matter.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Jets)
The Ravens have won four in a row to finally get to .500 for the first time since Week 2, though Lamar Jackson had a tough game last week against the Browns. Baltimore is getting healthier and healthier and could have Marlon Humphrey back this week. Tyrod Taylor will start at QB for the Jets, but Garrett Wilson is out and this team doesn't have much hope. New York has just one takeaway this season, the fewest in the NFL in a team's first 10 games since 1960. Unless Myles Garrett lines up for the Jets, the Ravens should win at home.
New England Patriots (at Bengals)
After playing last Thursday, the Patriots have extra time to prepare for a Bengals team that has lost seven of its last eight and just got hammered by the Steelers. Playing at home (probably) won't save the Bengals, whose defense ranks last in the league with 33.4 points allowed per game — the only team allowing more than 30.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Panthers)
Brock Purdy returned last week after missing the last six games and threw three TD passes. The 49ers are as healthy on offense as they've been all season. The Panthers are mediocre and a cross-country trip to Santa Clara for a Monday night game is not a good matchup. The only hesitation is the 49ers' W-L streak, as they've alternated wins and losses each week since Week 3. Following that pattern, this week is a loss. Now, one reasonably might regard this quirk as nonsense, but it wouldn't be the first time a team's outcome followed an inexplicably weird pattern. We report, you decide.
Chicago Bears (vs. Steelers)
Like their quarterback, the Bears are inconsistent, but they play a Steelers squad this week that could be without Aaron Rodgers. The Bears are only 2.5-point favorites at home, so Vegas isn't necessarily buying them. But if you've used the above teams and Rodgers is out, the Bears aren't so bad.
NOTABLE OMISSION
None. The Jaguars losing at the Cardinals wouldn't be that shocking, but that's hardly notable as the seventh-most popular Survivor pick. The only games to reasonably stay away from are the Buccaneers-Rams and Colts-Chiefs.
