NFL Waiver Wire: Week 11 Deep Dive

We're officially down to the last few chances to sneak into the fantasy playoffs, and each win counts more than ever. I suppose there's also a chance you're reading this while undefeated and reaping the laurels of a stacked roster, but something tells me the larger audience for Waiver Wire columns is involved in a different scenario. 

Usually by this point in the season, pickings are too slim to find much more than one-week bandages. Fortunately, we've actually got a handful of options to pick from that could be legitimate gems, the kind who could provide fairly high-upside value for a number of weeks. This Thursday article is our second waiver wire piece of the week, intended to give a broad overview of players worth fantasy consideration. Every Monday, Kevin Payne's first edition of the Waiver Wire series summarizes the top names.

For add/drop, start/sit, or any other questions relating to fantasy, just comment below or hit me up on Twitter (@ivilloth). 

The list below includes players rostered in no more than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues and is listed in order of preference based on half-point per reception scoring and a 12-team league. Depending on your league's scoring and roster settings, certain players might warrant higher consideration than what is listed. Each player's listed roster percentage is based on Tuesday's Yahoo statistics, to give a general sense of availability for a given week.

QUARTERBACK

Jameis Winston vs. Falcons (4 percent) — Winston hasn't officially been named the replacement in New Orleans, but it wasn't Taysom Hill (2 percent) who entered the starting lineup when Brees missed multiple weeks last season. Winston's notorious reputation as a risk-taking gunslinger is well deserved. But even if reverts to his old turnover-prone ways, I like the chances of Sean Payton aggressively attacking downfield now that he has a quarterback with enough arm strength to do so. Brees is set to miss at least 2-3 weeks, but one report said the Saints hope to have him back "by the playoffs" so there's a chance Winston could be the rare mid-season waiver wire pickup with multi-week QB1 upside. It doesn't hurt that his immediate matchup is against an Atlanta defense that's surrendering the 1st-to-5th most points to opposing QBs, depending on scoring. I'd expect Hill to see increased touches at the same time, so his weekly touchdown upside should be on the upswing. 

Kirk Cousins vs. Cowboys (36 percent) — Cousins has been fine for fantasy in favorable matchups this season, while Dallas's secondary has established itself as one of the more vulnerable units in the league. There's always the worry Minnesota's offense could get out to an early lead and simply abandon the passing game - which seems to be Mike Zimmer's ideal scenario - but it's worth noting Cousins has compiled multiple TDs in four of his last five games.

Alex Smith vs. Bengals [7 percent] — Smith threw for a career-high 390 yards on 55 (!) pass attempts against Detroit last weekend, but only produced a mediocre fantasy day because all of Washington's scores came on the ground. The veteran has now thrown for 300-plus yards in each of his starts for the Football Team and will now get the benefit of a Bengals' squad ranking in the bottom-five in points allowed to opposing QBs. Smith will also get another usable week after that, as he's scheduled to travel to Dallas. 

Joe Flacco at Chargers (2 percent) — Flacco put up three TDs and 262 yards against the Patriots in Week 9, and Sam Darnold (shoulder) still isn't ready to play despite coming off a bye. As a desperation option, the veteran signal caller is somewhat intriguing due to his favorable matchup against Los Angeles. 

Brett Rypien vs. Dolphins (0 percent) — Rypien's intrigue is limited to multi-QB formats, but it sounds like Drew Lock (ribs) has a chance to miss Sunday's game. Last we saw Rypien in the lineup Week 4 against the Jets, he only managed a serviceable fantasy performance (~18 points) and would now get a tough home matchup facing Miami's secondary. 

RUNNING BACK

Salvon Ahmed at Broncos (9 percent) — Ahmed might just be the goldmine of late-season waiver wire pickups: a legitimate workhorse running back. The UDFA has looked electric in back-to-back weeks and is coming off a breakout game (21-85-1) against the Chargers' admittedly poor run defense. His upcoming matchups don't tighten up any time soon, with games against the Broncos (who allowed four rushing TDs last week), Jets and Bengals. There is the chance Myles Gaskin (knee) and/or Matt Breida (hamstring) return to the field soon and usurp Ahmed in the backfield or turn this into a committee. 

La'Mical Perine at Chargers (26 percent) — I fully expect Perine to overtake Frank Gore in this backfield down the stretch once he's gotten more adept with his reps as a blocker. The Chargers have been vulnerable against the run this season allowing five rushing TDs in their last four games. The rookie fourth-round pick has a good chance to start seeing double-digit touchdowns on a weekly basis. 

Kalen Ballage vs. Jets (46 percent) — Ballage didn't score in last week's revenge game against the Dolphins, but he did top 100 scrimmage yards. Austin Ekeler (hamstring) has hinted he could soon return from IR, but it looks like Ballage will receive at least one more start and it'll come in a great matchup against the Jets. 

Carlos Hyde vs. Cardinals (22 percent) — Hyde is all clear to suit up Thursday, though he's missed the last three games with a hamstring issue. It sounds like Chris Carson (foot) will be a game-time decision, so Hyde could actually end up as the starter versus Arizona. The matchup isn't great, as the Cardinals' run defense has been surprisingly stout. But when these teams last met in prime time, it turned out to be a high-scoring affair. 

Matt Breida at Broncos (22 percent) — Breida has resumed practicing in full after back-to-back missed games, so he should be good to go in Denver. As impressive as Salvon Ahmed has looked in recent weeks, Breida boasts a similar skill to Myles Gaskin (knee) that the Dolphins may prefer in a starting running back. 

Rex Burkhead at Texans (25 percent) — Burkhead has recently handled the role that once belonged to James White in New England's offense, and has looked the part of a lethal change-of-pace complement to Damien Harris. With three scores over the last two weeks, Burkhead represents a high-upside Flex play against Houston's porous run defense. 

Alexander Mattison vs. Cowboys (34 percent) — Mattison is basically a pure upside stash, but he offers some Flex appeal in deep leagues against Dallas. Dalvin Cook is Minnesota's clear bellcow, but he's handled a whopping 82 carries over the last three games and could get rested if the Vikings get up to an early lead. On the other side of the ball, Tony Pollard (18 percent) is still worth stashing purely because he'd inherit a three-down role if Zeke got hurt, but the upside isn't comparable. 

Cam Akers at Buccaneers (27 percent) — Akers' role on offense appears to be slowly growing, as he's now put together back-to-back games with at least ten touches. That still isn't enough for the rookie second-round pick to warrant fantasy consideration - especially against Tampa Bay's elite run defense - but he's a solid upside stash with a chance to come online by the fantasy playoffs. 

Devontae Booker vs. Chiefs (7 percent) — It looks like Booker has firmly solidified himself as the change-of-pace complement to Josh Jacobs, a role that he's parlayed into three scores over the last two weeks (including TDs against the Broncos, his former team). It's still tough to trust Booker in fantasy lineups - especially against the Chiefs - but he's going under-the-radar potential as a handcuff.

Malcolm Brown at Buccaneers (27 percent) — Brown is a frustrating type of fantasy player to roster, as it's near impossible to accurately predict when to start him. He's produced two multi-TD games on the season, but has also been held below 50 yards and scoreless in six of the other seven games. An opponent as stout as the Buccaneers doesn't lend any confidence in starting Brown. 

Jordan Wilkins vs. Packers (13 percent) — Wilkins and Jonathan Taylor have split carries relatively evenly over the last three weeks (39 rushes vs. 43), but it's Nyheim Hines (73 percent) who's really shone in his opportunities. If Wilkins even sees the low end of double-digit touches against Green Bay's hapless run defense, that'll be enough to lend him Flex consideration. 

Boston Scott at Browns (31 percent) — Scott only had three carries last week, but finished with a more than solid fantasy day courtesy of 56-yard breakaway touchdown. It was a strange day in terms of touchdown distribution as Corey Clement (0 percent) also scored on his only touch, but Miles Sanders is this backfield's clear star while Scott is most appealing as a handcuff.

Benny Snell at Jaguars (5 percent) — The hype is completely dead at this point, but it still isn't a terrible idea to hang on to Snell with your last roster spot. He's a competent runner between the tackles and would inherit a valuable amount of touches if James Conner ever went down.

WIDE RECEIVER

Michael Pittman vs. Packers (10 percent) — Mentioned as one of the top breakouts in last week's article, Pittman delivered by topping 100 yards against the Titans. Green Bay's secondary represents a much tougher matchup so expectations should be tempered, but the rookie then gets an incredible schedule to close out the year: Tennessee, Houston, Las Vegas, Houston (again) and Pittsburgh. He's now led the Colts in receiving in back-to-back weeks and is playing a full-time offensive role. 

Sterling Shepard Bye (50 percent) — Shepard is as close to a lock for double-digit PPR points as there is in the league, as he hasn't recorded less than six catches in a game this season (aside from Week 2, when he was injured). With the same caveat, he's also fallen below 40 receiving yards just once. While there are higher-upside Flex plays out there, Shepard has established himself as the Giants' most consistent pass catcher. 

Jakobi Meyers at Texans (48 percent) — If the last four weeks are any indication, Meyers is entering every-week starter territory. New England's passing game doesn't produce much, but it has been enough for Meyers now that he's clearly the team's top receiver. At this point, it seems like the former quarterback offers a stable PPR floor near the double-digit range, and I don't feel too concerned Julian Edelman (knee) is apparently making his way back. 

Sammy Watkins at Raiders (43 percent) — Now back practicing in full after a four-game absence, Watkins actually looks like a pretty tempting option for Week 11. If Mecole Hardman (30 percent) remains on the reserve/COVID-19 list and can't go, Watkins should see a slight bump in opportunities Sunday night. 

Michael Gallup at Vikings (46 percent) — Gallup certainly hasn't been spectacular this year, but this week he'll get the benefit of Andy Dalton back under center - and that should at least be a slight upgrade. The Vikings are allowing 288 passing yards per game, so there should be more than enough to go around for Dallas' receiving group. That Gallup has only scored once this season has really stymied his fantasy value, but some positive regression should be due.

Jalen Reagor at Browns (26 percent) — He didn't score last week, but Reagor's seven targets did pace Philadelphia's receiving corps versus the Giants. In his two games back from injury, the rookie first-rounder has drawn 13 targets from Carson Wentz and a matchup against the Browns' fallible secondary could be just the opportunity he needs to put it all together. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling at Colts (27 percent) — MVS has produced two straight convincing weeks, with three scores and 202 yards over that span. He's only drawn 10 targets during that timeframe, but the nature of his deep threat role is that low volume can still be enough to produce. His next two games are against tough secondaries with the Colts and Bears and Allen Lazard figures to be back in action soon, so there's reason to be concerned Valdes-Scantling's production won't remain steady.

Josh Reynolds at Buccaneers (7 percent) — Reynolds has had a solid floor in recent weeks, as he's only dipped below 44 yards once in the Rams' last seven games. He also has eight or more targets in each of the last three weeks, but the Buccaneers present a tough enough matchup that it's difficult to count on any piece of Los Angeles's passing game too much.

Anthony Miller Bye (19 percent) — Miller is probably someone best sought after his bye week, but it can't be ignored he's drawn 26 targets over his last three games. He's still yet to log a 100-yard showing this season and has only scored twice, but that amount of volume is enough to make Miller a solid Flex play - as long as one of Nick Foles (hip) or Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) manages to suit up under center Week 12. 

Breshad Perriman at Chargers (10 percent) — Perriman exploded for 101 yards and two scores against the Patriots the last time we saw him, showcasing an apparently legit chemistry with Joe Flacco (who's set to draw another start). But to see him emerge from the bye week with a shoulder injury is somewhat concerning. 

Denzel Mims at Chargers (5 percent) — Not to get too excited about receivers catching balls from a 35-year-old Joe Flacco, but Mims has been solid since his return from injury. He's managed 40+ yards in all three games, and drew seven or more targets in two of those contests. The Jets should be taking a youth-focused approach to the second half of the year, so it wouldn't be surprising to see Mims become featured more down the stretch.

KJ Hamler vs. Dolphins (4 percent) — Hamler has now drawn double-digit targets in back-to-back games, though it was somewhat disappointing to see him finish with just four catches for 50 yards against the Raiders. Still, the rookie has established a solid baseline for production and his skillset makes him a big-play threat in any matchup. 

Henry Ruggs vs. Chiefs (32 percent) — Ruggs is only averaging 18.5 receiving yards per game over the last four weeks and has seen less than five targets in each of his appearances since Week 1. He did blow up when he last met with the Chiefs in Week 5 by going for 118 yards and a touchdown on just two catches, but Ruggs' low floor makes him difficult to trust outside of deep leagues. 

TIGHT END

Logan Thomas vs. Bengals (36 percent) — Thomas put together his best performance of the year last week in terms of receiving yards with 66 and has now drawn six targets in back-to-back weeks. Thomas has also never dipped below four targets in a game, so he does boast a very consistent floor even if he hasn't shown anything resembling elite upside. 

Jordan Reed Bye (17 percent) — Reed hauled in five catches for 62 yards against New Orleans, producing about as much as you'd ask from a back-end TE1. In shallow leagues it may be hard to justify rostering Reed through a bye, but his involvement figures to keep him in the starting conversation the rest of the way. 

Dalton Schultz at Vikings (19 percent) — It looks like the Cowboys will have Andy Dalton back under center Week 11 while the Vikings' defense is soft enough that Schultz and his fellow pass catchers should be able to do some damage. It also helps that Schultz has seen 15 targets over his last two appearances. 

Irv Smith vs. Cowboys (7 percent) — Smith missed Monday's win over the Bears due to a groin injury, so he's only a waiver wire target if healthy. The 22-year-old's offensive usage is clearly on the upswing, as he has four or more targets in three of his last four appearances. And last time Smith suited up Week 9 against Detroit, he even produced a two-touchdown performance.