This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Betting the 'Under' Has Been Golden
The single-most shocking trend is that the Under is 79-52-1 for 60% winning bets for every game through Week 9 of the NFL regular season. If these games were played on Thursdays and Mondays the Under has earned a remarkable 15-5 for 75% winning bets. If we add in the Sunday Night prime time games, the Under has gone 22-7 for 76% winning bets.
Through nine weeks of last season, the Under had gone 17-10-1 for 63% winning bets in prime-time games. For the entire 2022 season, the Under went 39-20 for 67% and also marked the highest win percentage for Under bets since 2012 when they went 28-14 for 67% winning bets.
The financial markets have the same type of investor behavior where a stock or commodity gets on a strong trend that seems like it will never end, but it does. Like the financial markets, prices trend in the direction just like the totals have adjusted in the first nine weeks of this season. The average total in Week 1 was 44.09 points and has since declined to the lowest average total yet this season at 42.14 in Week 10.
There is a current oversold condition reflected by the total this week just like if Apple Computer stock sold off by 20% from it's high price. When a stock or an NFL team or the league average total reaches extreme levels does not mean that there is a certainly of a bounce back with the Over going to win 67% of the games remaining on the schedule.
Take a look at Peloton stock price over the past two years, which has reached extreme oversold price levels months ago, but the price kept moving lower because the fundamentals of the industry worsened. The same for the average total in the 2023 NFL. The average total may stabilize between an average of 41 and 42 points for the rest of the season and the results may be right around 50% Under winners. Do not presume that because we are at historically unprecedented win percentages on the Under that the Over now is automatically going to bounce back.
The NFL Best Bet for Week 10
The San Francisco 49ers started the season winning their first five games decisively, but then inexplicably went on a three-game losing streak. They had a BYW week to correct the weaknesses and mistakes they made during that losing streak and more importantly, had the time to get their best players healthy.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are also coming off the BYE week, but unlike the 49ers, started their season out poorly going 1-2 but have since won five consecutive games. Both teams lead their division races and will face each other in an extremely exciting and drama-filled showdown in Week 10 action.
Teams that have games and are on a current three-game losing streak and the game occurs from Week 10 on to the end of the regular season have seen the Under go 48-36-1 Under for 57% winners.
A Highly Profitable NFL Betting Algorithm
The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 42-16 ATS record for 72% winners over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:
· Bet on a team off an upset home loss.
· Game is taking place from Week 9 on to the end of the regular season.
· That team has won between 60 and 75% of their games in the current season.
If we drill down a bit further int the database and include that our team is playing in a game with a posted total of 45 or more points produced a 27-11 ATS record for 71% winning bets including a 23-13-2 Under record for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
Last drill down to include road teams produces a remarkably profitable 20-5 SU record and a 21-14 ATS mark for 84% winning bets including a 15-9-1 Under mark for 63% winning bets.
The Live Betting Strategy for the NFL Best Bet
There have been 690 lead changes through the first nine weeks of the regular season. The 49ers biggest lead has averaged 14 points ranking fourth highest and their biggest deficit has averaged 4.5 points this season So, take advantage of this scoring volatility by betting 70% of your bet size preflop ($70 for the $100 bettor) and then look for the Jaguars to score a touchdown first or retake the lead during the first half of action to add the remaining 30% ($30 for the $100 bettor).
The 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has the second-highest quarterback rating at 105.4 this season and trails the Miami Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa by just one point. Purdy has completed 68% of his 224 pass attempts for 2,033 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions (three occurred in their previous loss).
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence ranks 13th with a 93.6 quarterback rating and has completed 68% of his 271 pass attempts including nine touchdowns and four interceptions. With a full two weeks to prepare for each other I give the decided edge to the 49ers, who have the better talent and experience on both sides of the ball.
My best bet for Week 10 action is on the San Francisco 49ers minus 3 points as offered at DraftKings.
