NFL Week 11 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

NFL Week 11 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

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Last week really couldn't have gone any better for me. Despite whining about a bad NFL product (and it still is, don't let my success fool you), most of the games were competitive and all of the bad teams essentially did bad things against each other, mitigating the nauseating poor play. I'd love if the officiating could stop being such a critical focus in every game, but we're four months into the season now; it seems like a collective choice by the league to have this type of behavior happen every single week. 

Below you'll find my picks against the spread and on the totals for each game on the Week 11 NFL slate. For more NFL betting content here at RotoWire, check out our NFL picks series with several articles dropping each week. 

NFL Week 11 Betting Picks For Each Game

DateGame MatchupWeek 3 Picks
Thursday, November 16Bengals vs. RavensBengals +3.5, under 46 
Sunday, November 19Cowboys vs. PanthersCowboys -10.5, over 42.5
Sunday, November 19Steelers vs. BrownsSteelers +4, under 36.5
Sunday, November 19Bears vs. LionsLions -10, over 47
Sunday, November 19Chargers vs. PackersChargers -3, over 44.5
Sunday, November 19Cardinals vs. TexansTexans -4, under 47.5
Sunday, November 19Titans vs. JaguarsJaguars -6.5, over 39.5
Sunday, November 19Raiders vs. DolphinsDolphins -12, under 46.5
Sunday, November 19Giants vs. CommandersCommanders -10, over 37.5
Sunday, November 19Buccaneers vs. 49ersBuccaneers +11.5, over 41.5
Sunday, November 19Jets vs. BillsBills -7, over 40
Sunday, November 19Seahawks vs. RamsSeahawks -1, under 46
Sunday, November 19Vikings vs. BroncosVikings +2, under 44
Monday, November 20Eagles vs. ChiefsChiefs -2.5, over 45.5

NFL Week 11 Byes

  • Falcons
  • Colts
  • Patriots
  • Saints

Predictions for NFL Week 11

In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 11 odds and our predictions for each NFL game.

Home teams are listed last.

Week 10 Record ATS: 11-3
Week 10 Record on Totals: 8-6
Season Record ATS: 79-67-4
Season Record on Totals: 65-81-4

Bengals vs. Ravens

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Bengals vs. RavensRavens -3.5Baltimore -185; Cincinnati +15446

I'll be honest, I think this Week 11 slate overall is definitely tricky and there's very few leans I have. That being said, I do think the Bengals will play well in this one. I understand it's a tough AFC North battle, but it's like Vegas is assuming Baltimore will look like the team that trounced the Lions and I just don't know how anyone can guess what team will show up each week.

For better or for worse, I think you generally know what the Bengals will give you every week and the loss of Tee Higgins (hamstring) didn't impact the offense that dramatically in Week 10. I'm not sure Cincy wins, but the half point definitely makes me confident that a cover will be in play.

Spread Pick: Bengals +3.5
Total Pick: Under 46

Cowboys vs. Panthers

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Cowboys vs. PanthersCowboys -10.5Dallas -520; Carolina +39042.5

That Week 3 loss to the Cardinals still haunts me a bit in this sort of setting. Theoretically, the Cowboys should absolutely drub this team and while I wasn't really high on Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon, I'm confident he's a better option than Panthers HC Frank Reich.

But Dallas is still prone for just bad outings on occasion. I don't think Bryce Young and this pitiful offense is capable of taking advantage of the aforementioned bad outing, but I wouldn't have guessed early-season Cards could do it either. At the very least, the over seems like a slam dunk given the Cowboys could produce that on their own.

Spread Pick: Cowboys -10.5
Total Pick: Over 42.5

Steelers vs. Browns

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Steelers vs. BrownsBrowns -4Cleveland -192; Pittsburgh +16036.5

I made this pick off the under. I don't really know how this game sees five touchdowns scored, so if the under is in play, I think the Steelers will at least be in position to cover.

I'm relatively confident the Browns are a good team and will be a playoff team come the end of the season, but this just feels like one of those where the Steelers hang around enough to make this a field-goal game at the end.

Spread Pick: Steelers +4
Total Pick: Under 36.5

Bears vs. Lions

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Bears vs. LionsLions -10Detroit -485; Chicago +37047

Justin Fields (finger) should finally make his return so I was (and still am) absolutely worried about a back-door cover, but then I remembered there's no way in which the Bears get close to stopping this offense.

Detroit's a legit team. I poo-poo'd them early this year after the trouncing of the Packers, but I think they have an offensive scheme capable of hanging with anyone. The defense is always going to be a problem as we saw Sunday against the Chargers, but it's just a well-coached team in a sea full of absolute bots. That's absolutely good enough to be among the top best teams in football this year.

Spread Pick: Lions -10
Total Pick: Over 47

Chargers vs. Packers

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Chargers vs. PackersChargers -3Los Angeles -162; Green Bay +13644.5

If this was a game between two normal teams, the Chargers should be favored by double digits. But it's more like matchup between two teams that are incapable of doing the right thing. The Packers are just a bad team that still somehow make egregious, inexcusably gaffes once every few drives, but the Chargers have been finding ways to lose games like this for a full decade now.

I can guarantee Austin Ekeler is going to have a combined 150-plus total yards and I do think there will be plenty of offense from both sides. But I could also see this game ending on a tie after both teams miss game-ending field goals in overtime. That feels appropriate for the level of disfunction these two organizations have displayed as of late.

Spread Pick: Chargers -3
Total Pick: Over 44.5

Cardinals vs. Texans

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Cardinals vs. TexansTexans -4Houston -192; Arizona +16047.5

What a difference having a legitimate quarterback makes. Despite the massive level of current optimism (and rightfully so) for C.J. Stroud and the Texans, the Cardinals are presumably four-point away underdogs simply because of Kyler Murray.

I'm not sure this game is going to be particularly close in Arizona's favor, but they're astronomically better than a half-dozen teams rest of the season, and that was probably true even before the return of Murray.

Spread Pick: Texans -4
Total Pick: Under 47.5

Titans vs. Jaguars

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Titans vs. JaguarsJaguars -6.5Jacksonville -270; Tennessee +22039.5

Why was anyone surprised by last week's embarrassing loss to the 49ers? Is it just because San Francisco lost a few games without Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel

Jacksonville is absolutely a good team, yet everyone is acting like the sky is falling with Trevor Lawrence because he was "exposed" against a defense that, on paper, will be one of the best over the past decade. That'll get rectified against Will Levis and the Titans, who finally looked below average with a bit of film out on the rookie. Go figure.

Spread Pick: Jaguars -6.5
Total Pick: Over 39.5

Raiders vs. Dolphins

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Raiders vs. DolphinsDolphins -12Miami -650; Las Vegas +47046.5

I really wanted to take the Raiders and the points, but the Dolphins have had a lot of time to prepare for this game, and no amount of inspired play under interim head coach Antonio Pierce can overcome Aidan O'Connell doing things that vaguely resemble quarterback play against a competent opposition.

There's four games with double-digit point spreads and another two that see a team favored by close to a touchdown on the Week 11 slate. It's probably going to be a good week for teasers as result, but it never ends up being that easy.

Spread Pick: Dolphins -12
Total Pick: Under 46.5

Giants vs. Commanders

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Giants vs. CommandersCommanders -10Washington -440; New York +34037.5

I'm not going to entertain this too much. Tommy DeVito isn't a serious option under center, and even against a bad defense, the Giants won't be capable of doing much anyway.

Spread Pick: Commanders -10
Total Pick: Over 37.5

Buccaneers vs. 49ers

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Buccaneers vs. 49ers49ers -11.5San Francisco -575; Tampa Bay +42541.5

This was easily the most jarring line of the week. Look, I've been on the 49ers as a top-two team in the NFC from the word go and I've never wavered on that.

Trouncing Jacksonville doesn't make them nearly 12-point favorites against a team like Tampa Bay, which can generate some offense. Yes, Chase Young and Nick Bosa will likely wreak havoc and it's entirely possible Baker Mayfield will make at minimum one dumb interception in this one. But Tampa's just too methodical of an offense and have too many red-zone weapons (specifically Mike Evans) to be shut down throughout.

Spread Pick: Buccaneers +11.5
Total Pick: Over 41.5

Jets vs. Bills

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Jets vs. BillsBills -7Buffalo -298; New York +24040

I'll be curious to see if the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey manifests into something tangible this week. Theoretically, the Jets are like the 85 percent version of the Broncos in that they have a really good defense, a stud corner and an offense that can consistently churn out yards on the ground.

I just think there's too many intangibles leaning towards Buffalo's side, not to mention wiping away the bad taste from Week 1.

Spread Pick: Bills -7
Total Pick: Over 40

Seahawks vs. Rams

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Seahawks vs. RamsSeahawks -1Seattle -112; Los Angeles -10846

I just don't think the Rams are that good of a team, but I'm probably clouded by the game that occurred before the bye, and Matthew Stafford should now be healthy.

The Seahawks probably aren't that good of a team either, but shouldn't they be a bit motivated after the trouncing to begin the year? This is an absolute stay-away game for me on either side.

Spread Pick: Seahawks -1
Total Pick: Under 46

Vikings vs. Broncos

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Vikings vs. BroncosBroncos -2Denver -125; Minnesota +10544

I'm not ready to believe in the Broncos just yet. Maybe I should because their defense has held up just fine against the Chiefs and Bills as of late, but I'm not really sure what changed from the beginning of the year, and that kind of thing always makes me nervous.

The Joshua Dobbs magic is real, however, and Minnesota should be getting back Justin Jefferson (hamstring) for this one. He'll likely get shut down by Patrick Surtain, but even one more healthy, dangerous receiver can make a difference in a matchup that I think will be more low scoring than some might anticipate.

Spread Pick: Vikings +2
Total Pick: Under 44

Eagles vs. Chiefs

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Eagles vs. ChiefsChiefs -2.5Kansas City -148; Philadelphia +12445.5

No analysis needed. Just be happy the NFL gifted us with this one and enjoy good football from teams that both should be well rested off a bye. I'm hoping we'll get see this matchup once more before the season is over.

Spread Pick: Chiefs -2.5
Total Pick: Over 45.5

NFL Week 11 Best Bets

Next, we take a look at our favorite Week 11 NFL best bets at the best NFL betting sites. We had a tremendous last week going 7-1 including three plus-money hits. If only the Bills were capable of counting to 11, it would have been a banner mark. Here's hoping for the same goal in this week's recommendations.

BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 11

BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 11. If you're not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Week 11 at BetMGM.

  • Bengals +3.5 (-105)

Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 11

Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for NFL Week 11. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.

  • Wildcard Contenders Quick Pick - Steelers (+4), Chargers (-3), Seahawks (even), Buccaneers (+11.5) four-team special offer parlay (+1228)
  • Chargers/Packers over 44 points (-110)

WynnBET Best Bets for NFL Week 11

WynnBet has a strong menu of NFL Week 11 wagers to choose from, along with competitive odds. Sign up with the WynnBET promo code XROTO for up to $100 in free bets if you have yet to register at WynnBet.

  • Cowboys first-half total points over 13.5 (-125)

DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 11

 DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for Week 11 of the NFL season. here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.

  • Jaguars & Texans moneyline (+108)
  • Weekly Specials -- Isaiah Pacheco and D'Andre Swift combine for 150+ rushing yards (225)

FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 11

One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.

  • 6.5-point four-team teaser with Buccaneers (+17), Bengals (+10), Chargers (+3.5), Jaguars (even) - +200
  • Bills -6.5

BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 11

BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on NFL Week 3.

  • Over 0.5 total touchdowns scored by Buccaneers in first half - (-150)

PointsBet Best Bets for NFL Week 11

For bettors looking for a unique way to wager, try the PointsBet promo code for our Week 11 NFL picks. You can try "PointsBetting" for Week 11 to maximize your return.

  • Vikings +2.5

Look ahead at the NFL Week 12 odds as well, if you're interested in getting ahead of the line movement.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Joe Bartel
Joe Bartel is RotoWire's Operations Specialist and football contributor among many other things. When not at the office, he's probably playing a variety of Gen 4 console games or rooting on his beloved Green Bay Packers.
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