NFL Week 9 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

NFL Week 9 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

Warning, small non-gambling rant coming up. Scroll down a bit further if you want to avoid my overall pessimism with the product you're about to read about.

We've been stuck in a multi-week stretch of bad football. It's something I was concerned would be the case entering the season, but now roughly two months into the 2023 campaign it has become painfully clear. You've seen the stats before, but just to illustrate:

  • Fewest points scored in over a decade
  • Fewest touchdowns scored since the beginning of the 2000s
  • Fewest yards per completion since the 1970s

There's been a lot of discourse as to why professional football has looked so bad as of late. I think it's definitely understated how poor offensive line play has been in general. Whether it's injuries to top guys or such few youngsters immediately solidifying themselves as upper-echelon talents, there has been a drop-off up front.

Coaching has been particularly bad on the offensive level too. Other than maybe four or five of them I think the kindest thing you could say about the majority of the league is that they're middling, uninspiring play-callers that seem intent on avoiding creativity/risk in the name of preserving a chance at being competitive. So instead of a bad team -- cough, the Packers -- losing 30-21, it's just 21-10. Same result, but somehow with even less enthusiasm. Make it make sense!

But that last point leads directly to why I believe the NFL has put together it's worst year among a myriad of categories: abysmal quarterback play. Jordan Love is hardly even a mid-tier quarterback at this point, but just look at our RotoWire Roundtable Rankings to begin the season. Injuries to Justin Fields, Anthony Richardson and Deshaun Watson knocked out three interesting passers -- at least from a stats perspective -- though they weren't lighting up the scoreboard up consistently prior to injury.

The middle tier of quarterbacks took the biggest hit with the likes of Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Tannehill all missing extensive time, but even the youngsters that you'd hope could climb a level up the quarterback hierarchy like Kenny Pickett, Sam Howell, Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder and Bryce Young have varied between incompetent and downright miserable. That's 12 quarterbacks (including Mr. Love) that are either injured, ineffective, or both -- over one-third of the league isn't even sniffing league-average play.

There's just no winning that scenario from the NFL's perspective. Either both quarterbacks play against one another and you have some historically low-scoring game that looks like it was played in the 1960s -- Jets/Giants comes to mind -- or you have one of the few teams with a good quarterback just pummel the bad one -- Chargers/Bears this past week -- and we get an equally mundane result. 

This upcoming draft class should infuse more talent to a positional that is in desperate need of good players, but until then we're going to be stuck in a cycle with the likes of Taylor Heinicke and Brian Hoyer playing meaningful football. Happy dang Halloween.

NFL Week 9 Betting Picks For Each Game

DateGame MatchupWeek 3 Picks
Thursday, November 2Titans vs. SteelersSteelers -3, over 36
Sunday, November 5Dolphins vs. Chiefs * in Germany *Dolphins +2, under 51
Sunday, November 5Vikings vs. FalconsFalcons -4.5, under 37.5
Sunday, November 5Seahawks vs. RavensRavens -5.5, over 43
Sunday, November 5Cardinals vs. BrownsBrowns -8, under 37.5
Sunday, November 5Rams vs. PackersRams +3, under 40
Sunday, November 5Buccaneers vs. TexansBuccaneers +2.5, over 40
Sunday, November 5Commanders vs. PatriotsCommanders +3.5, over 40.5 
Sunday, November 5Bears vs. SaintsSaints -7.5, under 41.5
Sunday, November 5Colts vs. PanthersColts -2.5, under 44
Sunday, November 5Giants vs. RaidersGiants +2, under 37.5
Sunday, November 5Cowboys vs. EaglesEagles -3, under 46
Sunday, November 5Bills vs. BengalsBengals -2.5, under 48.5
Monday, November 6Chargers vs. JetsChargers -3, over 41.5

NFL Week 9 Byes

  • Broncos
  • 49ers
  • Jaguars
  • Lions

Predictions for NFL Week 9

In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 9 odds and our predictions for each NFL game.

Home teams are listed last.

Week 8 Record ATS: 7-8-1
Week 8 Record on Totals: 7-8-1
Season Record ATS: 59-59-4
Season Record on Totals: 49-70-3

Titans vs. Steelers

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Titans vs. SteelersSteelers -3Pittsburgh -155; Tennessee +13036

I'm concerned that the Titans watched Will Levis throughout rookie OTAs, training camp and presumably practice during the regular season and still opted to go with Malik Willis in the event Ryan Tannehill (ankle) inevitably suffered an injury.

I'm far from a Levis truther, but Willis looked incredibly bad in his 2022 debut and by all accounts never really seemed to improve throughout the offseason. Yet the Titans thought he was better than Levis? No Minkah Fitzpatrick (hamstring) is definitely going to help things for the Titans, but I have to imagine with a bit of film and just -- I don't know, general awareness -- that DeAndre Hopkins is the sole pass-catching option, the rookie second-round pick won't have as much luck in his second start. That Mitch Trubisky could play over Kenny Pickett (ribs) does nothing in my mind except add some potential for the over to actually hit.

Spread Pick: Steelers -3
Total Pick: Over 36

Dolphins vs. Chiefs

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Dolphins vs. ChiefsChiefs -2Kansas City -142; Miami +12051

It's crazy to me that arguably one of the most important games of the entire NFL regular season is going to be played on foreign soil.

It's entirely a gut feeling and just mental conjecture, but this Chiefs team doesn't strike me as one that would shake off the effects of overseas travel and go nuclear even in a plus matchup. Conversely, I think the Dolphins have a lot to prove and will understandably want this a bit more -- especially against a conference opponent that has been the measuring stick of any AFC team for more than half a decade.

I do feel reasonably confident that the over doesn't really come into play here. Given how bad/annoying the Week 9 slate looks overall, I think there's a lot of hopes resting on this game being entertaining. Maybe it's just recency bias, but I feel like whenever that situation occurs, the viewer can almost always be guaranteed a letdown.

Spread Pick: Dolphins +2
Total Pick: Under 51

Vikings vs. Falcons

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Vikings vs. FalconsFalcons -4.5Atlanta -198; Minnesota +16437.5

We already have reports that Joshua Dobbs -- whom the Vikings acquired at the trade deadline Tuesday -- won't start Sunday, but that seems pretty foolish to me.

It's an incredibly small sample size for Jaren Hall, but he just didn't seem like an NFL caliber quarterback in his Week 8 debut. Fortunately for Hall, the Falcons don't act like a serious NFL-caliber team, or at least head coach Arthur Smith certainly doesn't.

I actually feel reasonably confident the Vikings will make the playoffs (+225 on FanDuel right now), but I don't have any idea what to make of this game. I'll take the Falcons just given the quarterback situation in Minnesota, but I think the perceived gap between that befuddling issue and the head coach with Atlanta is marginal, at best.

Spread Pick: Falcons -4.5
Total Pick: Under 37.5

Seahawks vs. Ravens

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Seahawks vs. RavensRavens -5.5Baltimore -238; Seattle +19543

There's a growing belief in the Seahawks, which is confounding to me. Yes, they have possession of first place in the NFC West, but four of their five wins have come against the Panthers, Giants, Browns and Cardinals -- all of which started a backup quarterback. Yes, technically Daniel Jones was available for New York, but Saquon Barkley wasn't playing, so my point still stands.

The Seahawks are absolutely a playoff team, but think of them like the Vikings last year -- an inflated record just to get annihilated when they actually go against good opponents. I'm just not sure I think the Ravens are truly in that category. When they're on, Baltimore is one of the best teams in the league. But they just haven't been able to display the type of consistency you'd expect of a team in that range.

Spread Pick: Ravens -5.5
Total Pick: Over 43

Cardinals vs. Browns

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Cardinals vs. BrownsBrowns -8Cleveland -375; Arizona +29537.5

I think the Browns win and do so pretty easily, but I reserve the right to change this pick depending on the status of Kyler Murray (knee). Reports suggest the Cardinals could start rookie Clayton Tune, but Murray must be activated off the PUP list this week or he won't be eligible to return this season.

Obviously the Cardinals could still keep Murray out, much like what they essentially did last week after he was a full participant in practice. But then they'd run the risk of playing him the week of a new Call of Duty launch (Nov. 10). That's the level of nonsense I expect out of Arthur Smith.

Spread Pick: Browns -8 (only if Murray doesn't play)
Total Pick: Under 37.5

Rams vs. Packers

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Rams vs. PackersPackers -3Green Bay -162; Los Angeles +13640

As opposed to the game above, I think this is one of the better values you can get right now. Matthew Stafford injured his throwing thumb in last week's loss to the Cowboys. That's the same thumb that ultimately required surgery after the 2021 season.

Say what you want about the long-time veteran, but Stafford plays through just about everything imaginable. I'd be stunned if he's not active come Sunday, but even if he's out, Brett Rypien is capable of leading the team to two touchdowns. That's all I think it's going to take against this hapless bunch in Green Bay, who have at least thankfully embraced the tank by trading away Rasul Douglas on Tuesday.

Spread Pick: Rams +3
Total Pick: Under 40

Buccaneers vs. Texans

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Buccaneers vs. TexansTexans -2.5Houston -148; Tampa Bay +12440

Texans fans, I'll take ownership for what occurred Sunday. I felt incredibly confident they'd take care of business against the Panthers, but the "Bartel Stink" has been pretty noxious in these exact kind of scenarios.

Don't worry, I'm going to make up for it by choosing to make the exact same mistake I made last week. Maybe the travel matters here and I'm just not respecting it. But I do kind of find value when a veteran team takes on a younger one like Houston. I'm anticipating Baker Mayfield (knee) will play too, and while there's obviously zero upside with the offense they're at least consistent week-in and week-out. With the quarterback carnage I mentioned at the top of the article, Mayfield is safely a top-16 quarterback in my eyes, and while C.J. Stroud probably is too, he's prone to inconsistent performances unlike the 2018 No. 1 overall pick.

Spread Pick: Buccaneers +2.5
Total Pick: Over 40

Commanders vs. Patriots

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Commanders vs. PatriotsPatriots -3.5New England -166; Washington +14040.5

I know the assumption is going to be given the moves to trade Chase Young and Montez Sweat, the Commanders are now going to tank. While they aren't a good football team and I think correctly moved off a few guys that got them assets, I don't think the morale hit is going to be as pronounced. It's still a group of players fighting for their jobs and livelihood.

And also ... the Patriots are really bad. I'm not sure if they are the worst team in the league, but they're absolutely among a select group capable of "competing" for the No. 1 overall pick. There will be other games for Washington to audition for that role, but I don't think it'll be in Week 9.

Spread Pick: Commanders +3.5
Total Pick: Over 40.5

Bears vs. Saints

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Bears vs. SaintsSaints -7.5New Orleans -325; Chicago +26041.5

It sounds like one more week of Tyson Bagent under center for the Bears. Vegas seems to have the Saints roughly in the same value point as the Chargers, which seems off in my mind. I don't think it's enough to trust the Bears will score more than 17 points, which is what puts this spread in any real danger. Even though the Saints have a better record I actually feel more confident in the Chargers most weeks.

In any case, this should be an opportunity for Derek Carr and the pass-catching group to really have a get-right performance.

Spread Pick: Saints -7.5
Total Pick: Under 41.5

Colts vs. Panthers

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Colts vs. PanthersColts -2.5Indianapolis -148; Carolina +12444

The Colts are what I was hoping the Packers would be this year. Indianapolis really isn't a serious contender to win against good teams -- or even mediocre ones for that matter -- but they always seem to be frisky in games and they've clearly improved in certain areas throughout the season even if it's obvious they're missing players all along the secondary.

Meanwhile, I think the Panthers are just a bad team who essentially won their Super Bowl last week. Out of curiosity, I went to check the Panthers over/under win total for the rest of the season on FanDuel. I was initially shocked to see it at 4.5, but looking at their remaining schedule they play the Bears, Titans, Buccaneers twice, Saints and Packers to go along with this Colts contest. I can't imagine Carolina will be favored in many of them, but it's going to be a lot of 3.5-point spreads, right? 

Spread Pick: Colts -2.5
Total Pick: Under 44

Giants vs. Raiders

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Giants vs. RaidersRaiders -2Las Vegas -142; New York +12037.5

The Giants might get Daniel Jones (neck) back, which should probably factor more into my equation considering Tyrod Taylor (ribs) probably won't be a reserve option for them moving forward. The Raiders are just an absolute mess and have one of the worst coaching staffs in the league.

Saquon Barkley can absolutely win a game on his own; he's done it multiple times now and I truly think we're at the point of the season where organizational disfunction wins out more than anything else.

Spread Pick: Giants +2
Total Pick: Under 37.5

Cowboys vs. Eagles

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Cowboys vs. EaglesEagles -3Philadelphia -166; Dallas +14046

I'm really surprised this spread is as close as it is. The Eagles play down to their competition so often that maybe it has bettors fooled, but this is a critical game from a divisional perspective and really gives the team a bit of freedom if any untimely injury comes during the second half of the season.

The Cowboys had a pretty impressive win over the Rams last week, but that's a far different team than what they'll face in Philadelphia.

Spread Pick: Eagles -3
Total Pick: Under 46

Bills vs. Bengals

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Bills vs. BengalsBengals -2.5Cincinnati -148; Buffalo +12448.5

I think it's kind of in bad taste to have this be a primetime game after what transpired last season, but it's still two really good football teams playing against one another, so I'm at least thankful for that.

The Bengals outright winning last week should have made my "best bets" list, but I was too much of a coward to lean into it. This is a good football team. Cincinnati's defense finally feels like it's at the level I was expecting coming into the season, and I always had faith head coach Zac Taylor and company would figure things out. It's a cyclical thing every season at this point. Meanwhile, I have zero faith the Bills can put together four complete quarters, which is what it's going to take for a win.

Spread Pick: Bengals -2.5
Total Pick: Under 48.5

Chargers vs. Jets

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Chargers vs. JetsChargers -3Los Angeles -162; New York +13641.5

We were on such a good run of good games! The Chargers can, and probably will, absolutely Charger this one away, but I just can't in good conscience pick Zach Wilson to win a game against a competent team.

Spread Pick: Chargers -3
Total Pick: Over 41.5

NFL Week 9 Best Bets

Next, we take a look at our favorite Week 9 NFL best bets at the best NFL betting sites. We went 6-5-1 on the recommended list last week and hit a couple of nice plus-money odds. Unfortunately a moneyline recommendation on the Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes can officially never be compared to Michael Jordan again) ruined any chance at a super profitable day. Let's see if we can't get back in the rhythm this week.

BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 9

BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 9. If you're not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Week 9 at BetMGM.

  • Chargers -3 (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 9

Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for NFL Week 9. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.

  • 6.5-point teaser on under for Chiefs/Dolphins (57), Bears/Saints (47.5) and Falcons/Vikings (44) (+130)

WynnBET Best Bets for NFL Week 9

WynnBet has a strong menu of NFL Week 9 wagers to choose from, along with competitive odds. Sign up with the WynnBET promo code XROTO for up to $100 in free bets if you have yet to register at WynnBet.

  • Dolphins moneyline (+125)

DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 9

 DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for Week 9 of the NFL season. here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.

  • Commanders +3.5 (-115)
  • 6.5-point teaser with Commanders (+10), Rams (+9.5), Eagles (+3.5), Bengals (+4), Chargers (+3.5) (+320)

FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 9

One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.

  • Rams moneyline (+140)
  • Falcons moneyline (-196)

BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 9

BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on NFL Week 3.

  • Eagles -3 (-110)

PointsBet Best Bets for NFL Week 9

For bettors looking for a unique way to wager, try the PointsBet promo code for our Week 9 NFL picks. You can try "PointsBetting" for Week 3 to maximize your return.

  • Colts/Panthers under 44.5 (-110)
  • Commanders moneyline (+150)

Look ahead at the NFL Week 10 odds as well, if you're interested in getting ahead of the line movement.

RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NFL Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NFL fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Joe Bartel
Joe Bartel is RotoWire's Operations Specialist and football contributor among many other things. When not at the office, he's probably playing a variety of Gen 4 console games or rooting on his beloved Green Bay Packers.
NFL Observations: 5 Bold Predictions for 2024
NFL Observations: 5 Bold Predictions for 2024
ADP Analysis: Comparing June ADPs Between Underdog, DraftKings and Drafters
ADP Analysis: Comparing June ADPs Between Underdog, DraftKings and Drafters
Dynasty Strategy: Rookie RB Comparisons Pt. 1
Dynasty Strategy: Rookie RB Comparisons Pt. 1
Job Battles: Running Backs Part 1
Job Battles: Running Backs Part 1
2024 NFL Offseason: Summer Trade Candidates and Potential Cap Casualties
2024 NFL Offseason: Summer Trade Candidates and Potential Cap Casualties
NFL Win Totals 2024: Betting the Buffalo Bills' Win Total
NFL Win Totals 2024: Betting the Buffalo Bills' Win Total