This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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The Definition of NFL Parity
The NFL season is going according to plan in that whenever a team, like the San Francisco 49ers, looks to be nearly unbeatable after a 5-0 start they immediately reverse course and lose three straight games. The 49ers remain a contender to win the NFC Championship, but now have three teams, the Dallas Cowboys, the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Detroit Lions ranked ahead of them. Two of those teams play each other in a massive divisional showdown where the winner will be in the first place in the NFC.
The last team to win their first five games and then lose their next three games was the Minnesota Vikings in the 2016 season. They missed the playoffs with an 8-8 record and went 9-7 ATS. So, after the great 5-0 start, they proceeded to lose eight of their next 11 games and lost to the spread in seven of those 11 games.
In 2009, the New York Giants won their first five games losing to the spread only in Week 1 and then losing three straight games. They missed the playoffs with an 8-8 record and went 6-10 ATS. So, after the great 5-0 start, they proceeded to lose eight of their next 11 games and lost to the spread in nine of those 11 games. They also had a stretch from Week 6 to 12 winning just one game straight-up (SU) and losing all to the spread (ATS).
In 1997, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won five straight games to start the season then lost their next three and went 5-3 ATS over that span of eight games. The Buccaneers limped into the playoffs as a Wild Card team with a 10-6 SU record and posted a 9-7 ATS mark. They defeated the Detroit Lions 20-10 in the Wild Card round, but then lost to Green Bay 21-7 in the Divisional Round. So, starting out a season on fire and then immediately suffering a losing streak of three or more games is not a game plan to follow to the Super Bowl Championship.
In 2000, there were four teams, which is the most any season has had since 1989, that had just one loss when playing their ninth game of the season. They were the Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Tennessee Titans, and the Minnesota Vikings. The Rams, Raiders, and Vikings all made the playoffs. The Vikings and Raiders both lost in the Conference Championship games. So, this is certainly great news from a historical perspective for the Philadelphia Eagles, who have the league's best record at 7-1.
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Games that had More Punts than Points
Last week, there was a game that reflected horrid offensive play by both teams where there were more punts executed than points scored. Playing at MetLife Stadium, the Giants and the Jets combined for 23 points and 24 punts in the Jet's 13-10 overtime win. What is even more shocking is the fact that these types of games have happened more frequently than expected, but still a small percentage of all games played. There have been 85 games among the 8,754 games played or 1.0% where the teams combined for more punts than points scored since 1989.
Teams that won a game in which there were more punts than points scored by both teams and now playing at home have gone 24-10-2 Under the total for 71% winning bets since 1989. Next up for the Jets are the LA Chargers in Week 9 action. The total is 40 points, and the preferred bet is on the Under.
Can the Eagles Keep Winning Ugly Games?
The Philadelphia Eagles have the league's best record at 7-1 but have escaped with wins in several games. They have a strong ground attack that ranks 7th in the NFL averaging 132 YPG and has masked many of their defensive deficiencies to date. The Eagles acquired Deandre Swift from the Detroit Lions and has already paid the team huge dividends ranking 4th in the NFL with 571 rushing yards and 8th gaining 4.9 yards per attempt.
The Eagle's offense ranks third in scoring offense averaging 28 PPG, but will be going up against the fourth-best scoring defense that is allowing 17.1 PPG. The Eagles are a league-best converting 50% of their third-down attempts and many of them are achieved with the now infamous 'tush-push' plunge. However, the Cowboys rank 7th-best allowing opponents to convert just 34.5% of their third downs.
Led by Penn State standout and current right defensive end Micah Parsons, the Cowboy's defensive front is by far the best the Eagles have faced this season. Parsons ranks sixth in the NFL with nine tackles for loss. The rest of the front four is anchored by two veterans in Left defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence and nose tackle Jonathan Hankins and defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa, who was drafted in the third round of the 2021 draft out of UCLA. This front four has accounted for 11 of their 18 sacks on the season.
The Cowboys' secondary may be the best part of their defense led by cornerback DaRon Bland, who has four interceptions, second-most in the NFL this season. The defense ranks best in the NFL averaging an interception on every 4.46% of plays run so you can be sure the Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is going to be getting the ball thrown quickly.
Why Are the Eagles Playing Zone Defense?
Last week in a 38-31 win over the Washington Commanders, the Eagles chose to play the majority of the game in a zone defense. The result was that Commanders quarterback Sam Howell threw for 397 yards on 39-for-52 passing including four touchdowns and one interception. The Commanders outgained the Eagles by 98 total yards. Dak Prescott will have more than 400 passing yards if the Eagles play mostly zone defense and they can be exposed even more so in man coverages with weapons like Michael Gallup, Brandin Cooks, CeeDee Lamb, and tight end Jake Ferguson. The Eagles have given up a large amount of receiving yards to opposing tight ends over the last three seasons.
The Situational Team Angles You Need to Know
The following situational angles support the Cowboys.
· Head coach Mike McCarthy is 15-4 ATS when facing a defense that is allowing 235 or more passing yards per game.
· McCarthy is 29-14-1 ATS following back-to-back games in which his defense allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards.
· 21-10 ATS when facing a conference foe in games played over the last three seasons.
The following situational team angles support the Eagles.
· 8-1 ATS has a home favorite of seven or fewer points in games played over the last three seasons.
· Cowboys are 2-8 SU losing 16 units when facing an above-average offensive team that is averaging 5.5 or more yards per play in games played in the second half of each of the past three seasons.
A Situational Betting Algorithm for this Matchup
Betting on road teams using the money line that is coming off a home win by 21 or more points from Week 6 on out has earned a highly profitable 40-22 SU record over the past five seasons. If our team is priced as a dog, they have gone on to a highly profitable 15-12 SU and 19-8 ATS record good for 70.3% winning bets over the past five seasons. The clincher is if our road warrior is facing a divisional foe, they have gone on to a 7-3 SU record and 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets over the past five seasons.
My NFL Week 9 Best Bet is on the Dallas Cowboys using the money line currently offered at +136 at DraftKings. An alternative betting strategy for the $100 bettor is to bet $75 preflop getting the three points and then look for the Eagles to score first or retake the lead in the first half action and then get the remaining $30 on the money line, which ought to be significantly above +200. I also like the OVER 23.5 Cowboy points at +114 vig.
