On Target: Week 12 Matchups

As the season has gone on, I think that "On Target" has done some important things and we have discussed players who have had real impacts on their teams and our fantasy teams. However, we are now in Week 12 of the NFL season. Your trade deadlines are likely past and waiver wires picked clean, so the information that is mostly helpful is going to relate to starts and sits, or if you drafted crappy and got worst luck, you're likely looking for DFS advice right now.

As such, I am going to highlight some of Pro Football Focus' best and worst WR/CB matchups for fantasy purposes in this space for the rest of the season. The idea behind this will be to find some unexploited opportunities for DFS and help you make better decisions in the fantasy playoffs.

The Good

Doug Baldwin vs San Francisco

Per PFF, Baldwin runs a majority of his routes out of the slot which checks out when you see the way they have been using Paul Richardson and Tyler Lockett. Baldwin has the highest graded individual matchup of any fantasy-meaningful wide receiver this week against K'Waun Williams, who allows a 79 percent catch rate in coverage and utterly insane 0.38 fantasy points per route against. Baldwin's target numbers have been down the last few weeks, but he should likely be able to make up with that in efficiency in this matchup.

Cooper Kupp vs New Orleans

This is particularly noteworth because Kupp is expected to see a bump in targets with Robert Woods not in the lineup. The Saints are dealing with injuries to their two top corners, which is going to push some bad coverage players onto a talented guy like Kupp and, to a lesser extent, Sammy Watkins. Kupp will be lining up in the slot against De'Vante Harris, who is allowing 0.63 fantasy points per route against in a very small sample (but not a promising sample). This makes Kupp an easy start amongst your cadre of WR3s and flex plays.

Julio Jones vs Tampa Bay

If I told you right now that Jones was fourth in the NFL in receiving yards, I do not think that you would believe me. However, it is absolutely true. He is among the best in the league in target share, red-zone targets and air yards but he has not been able to convert them into a great fantasy season. That could all change this week against a terrible Tampa team that is matching him up on the right with Robert McClain. McClain allows an 80 percent catch rate on catchable targets towards him and 0.3 fantasy points per route against in coverage. Julio is an obvious start in seasonal but this could be a volcanic week for him.

Danny Amendola vs Miami

I feel that Amendola is going to be forgotten about this week as there is just so much going on with the Patriots offense that is easy to forget that he almost always fills in capably in the Julian Edelman role. Pro Football Focus actually gives him the easiest matchup of any of the Patriots wide receivers against Bobby McCain, which is interesting for me because I feel like Amendola is a borderline play in most 12-team leagues most weeks, but in an easy matchup and with the Patriots already putting Gronk in bubble wrap, I think that the former Ram is a pretty easy start this week.

The Bad

Amari Cooper vs Denver

It should surprise you to know that the Denver defense has allowed the most passing touchdowns in all of football, tied with the Houston Texans. We think of the Broncos as a very stout unit, but that has not been wholly true this year. With that idea in mind, I did think that possibly Cooper was a little sneaky this week, but he draws the toughest matchup that Denver has to offer this year against Bradley Roby. Roby doesn't have a massive size advantage but is allowing only 59 percent of passes in his target radius to be turned into receptions.

Marqise Lee vs Arizona

That's right; we have now reached the point in the 2017 season where Marqise Lee is going to get the shutdown treatment from an opposing team's top cornerback. Outside of his game against DeAndre Hopkins, Patrick Peterson has not allowed any wide receiver to amass over 40 yards in his coverage and has allowed no startable wide receiver performances. Lee is average on his best days and even with double-digit targets in this contest, it would be hard to see him turning in a good result against one of the league's three or four best defensive backs.

Martavis Bryant vs Green Bay

JuJu Smith-Schuster is going to miss this game for the Steelers, which is going to push a pile of people onto Bryant in DFS (only $5,200 on Fanduel) and into starting him in their deeper leagues if they are needing some upside to get into the playoffs. Unfortunately, he is due to spend most of his time faced off against Davon House, who is the one Packers corner who is legit good in coverage. Per PFF, House has a 17 percent matchup advantage on Bryant and if Bryant is unable to get deep on one, this could be a quiet day for the mercurial Steeler.

The Undecided

Mike Evans vs Atlanta

This is probably the weirdest matchup of the week. PFF grades Atlanta's Robert Alford as a legitimately good corner, capable of hanging with almost any wide receiver, but… he happens to be 5-foot-10 and weighs only 188 pounds, while Evans is almost 6-foot-5 and weighs over 210 pounds. This is one of the biggest size disadvantages on the charts this weekend. With Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm, I do not think we can say that the advantage goes to Evans even with his six inches of spare height over Alford. This one will be very interesting to watch unfold.

A.J. Green vs Cleveland

Cleveland is terrible; they have not won a game, but they have the best run defense in all of football by DVOA, yards per carry and success rate on rushes against. They also have a cornerback who has legit played like a shutdown, put-him-on-an-island sort of guy. Cleveland has already contained several very good WR1s and Jason McCourty has been responsible for limiting their fantasy output. PFF grades this as basically a neutral matchup, and I am interested to see if Green is finally the guy who has a volcanic game against what should be a bad defense.