Streaming Defenses: Picking a Week 4 Defense

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

Lions - After holding Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense to just seven points in Week 3, the Lions figure to be a popular choice among defense/special teams in Week 4. Rodgers was sacked twice, which seems somewhat low, considering the beat up offensive-line he's playing behind. The impressive part about what the Lions are doing on defense this season though lies in their run defense, as they lead the league in fewest YPC allowed (2.8). With the likes of DTs Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh on the interior, this should be a strength of the defense. Unfortunately they will be without the services of LB Stephen Tulloch, who tore his ACL this past week, after he celebrated a sack of Rodgers. Still, the Lions should be up to the challenge of stopping the Jets run game, which has done well this season at 4.9 YPC, but that has come against the Raiders, Packers, and Bears, which is below average competition. Putting RBs Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson out there is almost playing into the hands of the Lions, as today's NFL is built around passing the ball. Speaking of which, Jets QB Geno Smith isn't anyone's idea of an even average passer. Moreover, WR Eric Decker is dealing with a hamstring injury that didn't allow him to finish MNF's game against the Bears. If he's unable to go, the Jets offense will have to rely on the likes of Jeremy Kerley, David Nelson, Greg Salas, and Jeff Cumberland. The Lions rarely put together four mistake free quarters in a row and the Jets like to ugly-up games, so I expect this game to be have it's fair share of turnovers, which is what you want if you're picking the Lions here. Vegas has this over/under set at 45 with the Lions favored by 1.5, which puts this at about a 23-22 game. Facing the Jets on the road, the Lions defense/special teams have an ownership of 38 percent at CBS Sports, 8.8 percent at ESPN, and 43 percent at Yahoo.

Jets - Along the lines of what was discussed above with the Lions, I expect this game to an ugly one, as that's what the Jets do, just look at MNF's game with the Bears. Moreover, the Lions are prone to mistakes, as evidenced by their 2.0 giveaways per game, fifth most in the NFL. Like the Lions, the Jets are also very good at stoping the run, as they too are tied for the league lead in fewest YPC allowed (2.8) this season. This comes on the heels of leading the league in this stat last season too, at 3.4 YPC. The Lions are second to last in YPC on offense at 3.0, which means expect to see very little success for the likes of RB Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. This is where the matchup gets a little precarious though because forcing the Lions to pass the ball is just fine with them, as QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson are one of the best tandems in the league. Moreover, WR Golden Tate has shown himself to be very sure handed this season and there's Bush to worry about out of the backfield. And to make matters worse, the Jets don't exactly have a great pass defense, but what they lack in talent, they make up for with creativity from Rex Ryan and his various blitzes that are sure to have Stafford throwing off his back foot a few times. Overall though, if this game is back-and-forth with the turnovers and neither team can run the ball effectively, expect a sluggish game. The big worry here though is that the Lions get out to an early lead and the Jets have to play catch-up and Geno Smith is forced to make more plays than he's capable of. Vegas has this over/under set at 45 with the Lions favored by 1.5, which puts this at about a 23-22 game. Facing the Lions at home, the Jets defense/special teams have an ownership of 19 percent at CBS Sports, 2.4 percent at ESPN, and four percent at Yahoo.

Redskins - The home team in these Thursday night games seems to have a big advantage on the short week. I'm not sure if this is something that's built into the spread each week by Vegas, but to me at least, it seems worth thinking about, when picking a defense to stream each week. Offensively, the Redskins seem like a different team with Kirk Cousins at QB, as he's not constantly on the move, but rather sitting in the pocket and making reads, which is what this Jay Gruden offense is based around. The Eagles are by no means a special defense (sorry for touting them last week), but to drop 427 yards with three passing TDs and one interception with zero sacks is impressive stuff against anyone. The Redskins defense needs Cousins to keep this up, so they're not on the field constantly. As for the Giants offense, last week QB Eli Manning showed progress, from the strides he made in Week 2 against the Cardinals. Still, the offense relied on RB Rashad Jennings to do the heavy lifting, as he got 34 carries. That's going to likely prove difficult to do against the Redskins, as they too are tied for the league lead in fewest YPC allowed (2.8) this season, just like the Lions and Jets (the Seahawks are also tied for the lead). Shutting down the Giants rushing attack and putting the game in the hands of Manning is exactly what the Redskins want, as he's clearly still learning the Giants new offense, but is also prone to poor decision making on his own, as evidenced by his league leading 27 interceptions last season. WR Odell Beckham was seen back at practice this week, but he's unlikely to suit up on the short week. DB DeAngelo Hall is out for the season with an Achilles injury, but I view that as a positive, as Hall has been one of the worst cover corners in the league for some time now. The worry here is that this game gets into a shootout, but that's somewhat difficult to see when Eli Manning is the one aiming the pistol. The other worry is the Redskins specials teams, which is now perennially the worst in the NFL. If they continue to make mental errors, they could give the Giants field position or points they don't deserve. Vegas has this over/under set at 45.5 with the Redskins favored by 3.5, which puts this at about a 24-21 game. Facing the Giants at home, the Redskins defense/special teams have an ownership of 14 percent at CBS Sports, 4.6 percent at ESPN, and six percent at Yahoo.

Falcons - After watching the Falcons destroy the Bucs on Thursday last week, their defense/special teams stats are inflated by that one game. The real positive to come out of that game is that they get the extra days of rest going into this game. When the Vikings had Matt Cassel at QB, this was an easy offense to pick on, especially with no Adrian Peterson. With Teddy Bridgewater now at the helm though, this is no longer an offense to dismiss. Against the Saints last week, he posted a 7.5 YPA with 27 yards rushing on six carries. I view the Saints as a lower tier defense, the metrics say they're among the worst in the league, but Bridgewater was making his debut, so some perspective is needed. For the positives that Bridgewater brings to the passing game, much was lost when TE Kyle Rudolph was lost to a groin injury. Without him, you're looking at WR Cordarelle Patterson, Greg Jennings and not much else. This should benefit the Falcons, who will have one less weapon to worry about. The Falcons have a weak run defense, but stopping RB Matt Asiata, doesn't figure to be too difficult. On the season he's averaging 3.0 YPC on 27 carries with a long of eight yards, which is pretty disappointing. He's been a bigger weapon in the passing game than in the run game. I expect the Falcons to get up early in this game and for the Vikings to have to play catch-up, thus abandoning the run in the second-half, as they look to come back. The only worry here is that Bridgewater is a huge improvement over Cassel and he exposes the Falcons secondary much the way that Andy Dalton did in Week 2. Vegas has this over/under set at 46.5 with the Falcons favored by three, which puts this at about a 25-22 game. Facing the Vikings on the road, the Falcons defense/special teams have an ownership of 19 percent at CBS Sports, 9.2 percent at ESPN, and six percent at Yahoo.

Raiders - The Dolphins are an offense without an identity right now. This week the team openly questioned whether Ryan Tannehill should remain the starting QB, after his lackluster play to start the season. Coach Joe Philbin remains noncommittal on Tannehill, which I suppose is better than the dreaded vote of confidence. Still, it's clear Tannehill needs to improve and do so right now or he's going to lose his job. The Raiders offense is equally, if not more so, in the gutter, but their defense might not be. Last week against the Patriots they held the their run game to just 2.4 YPC, while holding their offense overall to just 4.2 YPP. The Texans ran over, around, and through them, as they cruised to 188 yards rushing in Week 2. RB Lamar Miller went off for 7.2 YPC against the Chiefs and figures to get a large share of the carries in this game. Still, their offense is about Tannehill and what he can or cannot do in this new Dolphins offense. WR Mike Wallace has a much better chemistry on the field with Tannehill than he did last season. He's to be feared by the Raiders secondary, which is now without safety Tyvon Branch (foot). After him though, it's Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson, and TE Charles Clay, who seems to be stuck in clay, as he has only 79 receiving yards on the season. Among rookie defensive players this season, LB Khalil Mack, the fifth overall draft pick this year, looks to be a legit playmaker for the Raiders. It's early, but he rates out as the third best OLB in 3-4 defenses per Pro Football Focus. The offensive line woes that the Dolphins had last season haven't yet been cured, as they've given up the third most sacks per game this season (3.0). The worry here is that the Raiders are back to their old ways of laying down and quitting, when the going gets tough and let the Dolphins defense mangle their own sputtering offense. With Tannehill fighting for his job though, the Raiders seem like a decent bet, if you're really scraping the barrel this week. Vegas has this over/under set at 40.5 with the Dolphins favored by four, which puts this at about a 22-18 game. Facing the Dolphins at home, the Raiders defense/special teams have an ownership of six percent at CBS Sports, 0.7 percent at ESPN, and one percent at Yahoo.

Here are my rankings for this week, the next four weeks and the remainder of the season:

Finally, heres how the picks from the previous week faired:

Dolphins (vs Chiefs) - 34 points allowed, five sacks, one safety, two fumble recoveries

Colts (at Jags) - 17 points allowed, four sacks, two interceptions, one fumble recovery, one touchdown

Falcons (vs Bucs) - Eight points allowed, three sacks, one interception, four fumble recoveries, two touchdowns

Jets (vs Bears) - 21 points allowed, four sacks, one fumble recovery

Eagles (vs Redskins) - 34 points allowed, one interception, one touchdown