Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Miami vs. Buffalo

It's not often that a regular season game, let alone finale, carries stakes as high to the playoff seeding as this Sunday Night Football game between the home-team Dolphins and the traveling Bills. Unfortunately, both teams are battered to significant extents by now – the Dolphins missing reps to significant extents at running back, wide receiver, and edge defense, while the Bills have played most of the year without several standout defenders. That the game is in Miami definitely saves the Dolphins some trouble this time of year, but the Bills are still favored by three points with the over/under at 48.5.

QUARTERBACK

Josh Allen ($11000 DK, $17000 FD) is almost impossible to fade during showdown slates, and this game is no exception. While Allen and the Bills offense have struggled lately and in general during the 2023 season, the Dolphins have been his favorite opponent the last two years and obliterated the Dolphins in the earlier matchup from this year. Even if Allen struggles as a passer, he does so much as a runner that he's still in the hunt to be the highest-scoring player in the game. It doesn't hurt that the Dolphins pass rush has been de-fanged by injury.

Tua Tagovailoa ($10000 DK, $13500 FD) doesn't carry nearly as much assurance as Allen, especially with Jaylen Waddle (ankle) not his normal self. The Bills defense has shown the ability to contain Tagovailoa too, as the Bills are good at spamming the underneath areas that Tagovailoa tends to lean on as a passer. Tyreek Hill is a singular threat and Tagovailoa can overcome the circumstances with one of his better games, but it might be challenging to pile up big numbers without striking deep, and that's where Waddle's absence really hurts.

RUNNING BACK

Raheem Mostert (knee) is not expected to play, and we already saw how much that hurt the Dolphins last week. The workload as a result falls to De'Von Achane ($9000 DK, $14000 FD), who's been highly impressive but isn't built to take on a heavy workload. If the Dolphins rotate Achane out for short yardage or whatever else, Jeff Wilson ($3200 DK, $8000 FD) would be the likely candidate to step in. Wilson has some ability and is a real candidate to poach short-yardage work, but Achane is far superior and the Dolphins have little choice but to give Achane all the work he can handle.

James Cook ($8000 DK, $12000 FD) could be primed for a big game, especially if the Dolphins offense is contained. Cook would still get targets even if the Bills had to go pass-heavy, but if the Bills control the flow of the game then it gives them the luxury of giving Cook targets and carries both. Although the Dolphins have been tough against the run for most of the year, any defense will get sloppy against the run if they spend too much time on the field. Latavius Murray ($2200 DK, $7500 FD) is a candidate to poach short-yardage work but has lost snaps and carries lately to Ty Johnson ($1400 DK, $6500 FD).

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

Stefon Diggs ($10200 DK, $12500 FD) has really struggled the last two months, but he has to bounce back eventually, right? Perhaps he can hit his stride again here, against the Dolphins defense that Josh Allen has easily lit up in recent games. If Diggs has a big game here it could be an opportunity to roster him at a lower ownership percentage than where Diggs would normally register in a showdown slate. Gabe Davis ($7000 DK, $10500 FD) sometimes sneaks past the coverage but of course goes entire games without catches other times. It seems like Khalil Shakir ($5200 DK, $8000 FD), Dalton Kincaid ($6200 DK, $10000 FD) and Dawson Knox ($2000 DK, $7000 FD) are caught in a zero-sum game for most of the remaining targets, though all three players are capable.

Tyreek Hill ($11200 DK, $16000 FD) is exceedingly difficult to fade, especially if Jaylen Waddle is out. The defense would be selling out fully to contain Hill either way, but this scenario probably boosts Hill's target share of the Miami offense. It will probably be a grind and there might not necessarily be a big point total to be had, but it still figures to be one of the highest point totals from this game. If the scoring trends more to the over then it would maybe open up some room for players like Cedrick Wilson ($4400 DK, $8500 FD) or Braxton Berrios ($2600 DK, $7500 FD). Durham Smythe ($3000 DK, $6500 FD) usually gets stuck doing blocking work, but he's a fairly capable pass catcher when his occasional opportunity pops up.

KICKER

Tyler Bass ($4800 DK, $9000 FD) is a solid kicker and could have some work to do in this game. While the Bills have lit up the Miami defense in recent games, but the Bills have struggled badly enough lately that there's reason to worry they won't score quite as many touchdowns. Some of those touchdowns could easily turn into field goals, though, and Bass has generally shown the ability to capitalize when given opportunity. He scored 12.0 fantasy points in the previous matchup.

Jason Sanders ($5000 DK, $9000 FD) was only lightly used in the first half of the year, but in his last seven games he's made 17 of 19 field goals. That included a 24-point run over two weeks. Whether he can get going in this game depends on if the Miami defense holds up well enough to give the offense the luxury of kicking field goals. In Allen's recent games the Bills pulled away quickly – Sanders produced only 2.0 fantasy points in the previous game.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

While it would normally be harrowing to consider a fantasy defense against the Dolphins, the Bills ($3800 DK, $9500 FD) have had Miami's number lately and Sean McDermott's defense is self-evidently effective at the depths that Miami throws to most often. That Waddle is limited certainly makes it easier yet to get to Tua Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) have some moxie to them, and Josh Allen is turnover-prone, but Allen has obliterated the Dolphins lately and it's hard on the Dolphins to play without both Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. If they rattle the Bills here it would be highly impressive.