This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers Betting Preview for NFL Week 18
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The Lions (8-8) travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers (8-8) at Lambeau Field on Sunday night in the final primetime game of the regular season.
The NFL decided to flex this game to the Sunday night spot due to the playoff implications it holds. For Green Bay, the proposition is straightforward -- a win garners them a wild-card spot in the NFC, regardless of what happens earlier in the day. The same will be true for Detroit if the the Seahawks fall to the Rams in their late-afternoon clash.
Detroit and Green Bay have battled back from 1-6 and 3-6 records, respectively, to get to the precipice of the postseason.
Detroit Pistons at Green Bay Packers for Week 18
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Lions +198 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Packers -215 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Point spread: Lions +5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Packers -4.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Total: Over 49 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Under 49.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Packers opened as 3.5-point favorites, but that number progressively grew as the week went on. The number did reach three shortly after the original projection but has since stabilized at the 4.5-to-5-point range at most sportsbooks.
The total has moved quite a bit since its opening position of 47. It reached a peak of 50 earlier in the week before coming down once again. After toggling between 49.5 and 49 over the past 72 hours, it appears to have found stability at 49.
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Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Picks This Week
The 2022-2023 NFL regular season is down to its final Sunday, but not before one last grudge match between two division rivals fighting for their playoff lives. While Aaron Rodgers and the Packers appear to have the upper hand, the Lions have certainly proven plenty over the second half of the season.
At first glance, the total may come off as a bit high based on the outcome of the first game between these two squads. While both teams have now seemingly found their groove, Detroit squeaked out a 15-9 victory at Ford Field when the two teams met back in Week 9.
The two clubs come into this rematch with much more momentum, however. In fact, Green Bay could finish the season on a five-game win streak and is coming off its highest-scoring performance of the season, a 41-17 victory against the Vikings in Week 17.
The Lions also managed to score 41 points last Sunday in a victory over the Bears. Dan Campbell's squad has now eclipsed the 35-point mark five times this season. A big reason for the success of the Lions' offense has been the play of Jared Goff, who is in the self-proclaimed best stretch of his career. The former Ram is averaging 306.4 passing yards per game in his last five contests with a 12:0 TD:INT ratio in that span. With the Packers' defense stepping up during the current win streak, it will be interesting to see if Goff can continue his stellar play.
Rodgers has made good use of his first extended opportunity to develop chemistry with both of his talented rookie wideouts, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. The duo, which dealt with injuries throughout a good portion of the first half-plus of the season, has combined with Allen Lazard to form a trio amply capable of exploiting a Detroit defense surrendering 249.4 passing yards per game and an NFL-high 11.9 yards per completion.
Detroit will naturally also have to worry about Green Bay's Aaron Jones-AJ Dillon backfield tandem. Teams are averaging 5.3 yards per carry against Aidan Hutchinson and the Lions' defense. The Packers' run game has been exceptional of late, with Jones and Dillon combining for 339 yards rushing in the last three games alone. Moreover, Green Bay ranks fourth in the league with seven rushing touchdowns in the last five games.
Lions vs. Packers Best Bet: Packers (-4.5) and Over 48.5 points (+240 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction
Packers 31, Lions 23
Both teams have proven they can put up points, but Green Bay's recent body of work on defense supports the notion they can at least slow down Goff and the red-hot offense he's running.
The Packers have managed to rack up 12 takeaways during their four-game win streak and have back-to-back games with four. With an opportunistic defense, dynamic special teams, and a strong run game, I'm in the camp of Green Bay coming away with a critical win at home to get into the postseason.