This article is part of our Survivor series.
Week 1 Survivor is often the trickiest all season. We think we know who's good and bad, but games are played for a reason and we don't know nearly as much as we suspect.
Two years ago, five of the six most popular Week 1 Survivor picks lost; last season three of six lost and two had to pull out wins late.
This is the week to pick with conviction. If you're wishy-washy and lose, it will sting even more. Then again, the sting of losing Week 1 is bad no matter what.
Anyway, before we get to this week's picks, a quick review for those new to Survivor or new to this column.
The goal in Survivor is to pick a winner each week without using the same team twice. Do that all season and you'll win your pool.
To that end, our strategy is guided by these Survivor principles:
1. Survivor is not just about winning as long as possible — it's about surviving awhile everyone else does not. As such, our strategy seeks to explain not just how likely a team is to win but how much that win is worth to you. Those unfamiliar with our strategy should start by reading here and here.
2. Saving teams for later in the season is a fool's errand. A) We have no idea what the NFL will look like in a month or two — teams don't stay the same week to week, let alone all
Week 1 Survivor is often the trickiest all season. We think we know who's good and bad, but games are played for a reason and we don't know nearly as much as we suspect.
Two years ago, five of the six most popular Week 1 Survivor picks lost; last season three of six lost and two had to pull out wins late.
This is the week to pick with conviction. If you're wishy-washy and lose, it will sting even more. Then again, the sting of losing Week 1 is bad no matter what.
Anyway, before we get to this week's picks, a quick review for those new to Survivor or new to this column.
The goal in Survivor is to pick a winner each week without using the same team twice. Do that all season and you'll win your pool.
To that end, our strategy is guided by these Survivor principles:
1. Survivor is not just about winning as long as possible — it's about surviving awhile everyone else does not. As such, our strategy seeks to explain not just how likely a team is to win but how much that win is worth to you. Those unfamiliar with our strategy should start by reading here and here.
2. Saving teams for later in the season is a fool's errand. A) We have no idea what the NFL will look like in a month or two — teams don't stay the same week to week, let alone all year. B) You're likely to be eliminated before you even get use that saved pick. C) If you save a team for the week it faces the worst team in the league, guess what? The majority of your pool is probably using that team too. In that case, the smart play is no longer the team you saved, the smart play is a pot-odds pick — taking the next-best team with the hope that everyone goes down with the most popular pick.
With that, on to Week 1.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BENGALS | Patriots | 39.8% | 362.5 | 78.4% | 8.61 |
| BILLS | Cardinals | 15.0% | 270 | 73.0% | 4.05 |
| SEAHAWKS | Broncos | 12.4% | 225 | 69.2% | 3.82 |
| SAINTS | Panthers | 8.9% | 202.5 | 66.9% | 2.94 |
| BEARS | Titans | 4.8% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 1.70 |
| 49ERS | Jets | 3.0% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 1.06 |
| BUCCANEERS | Commanders | 2.7% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 1.07 |
| DOLPHINS | Jaguars | 2.2% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.85 |
| CHARGERS | Raiders | 1.8% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.73 |
| LIONS | Rams | 1.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.58 |
| FALCONS | Steelers | 1.5% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.61 |
| Texans | COLTS | 1.1% | 145 | 59.2% | 0.45 |
| CHIEFS | Ravens | 1.0% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.42 |
| Eagles | Packers at Sao Paulo | 0.8% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.35 |
| Vikings | GIANTS | 0.8% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.38 |
| Cowboys | BROWNS | 0.3% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.13 |
Home teams in CAPS - Eagles vs. Packers at Sao Paulo, Brazil
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Barely out of the gate and we already have a pot-odds play to consider.
The Bengals are the big Survivor favorite this week with nearly 40 percent of the picks. The Bills are next with 15 percent. Let's compare the risk and reward ratios for picking the Bills instead of the Bengals.
A Bengals win/Bills loss is .78 (Bengals Vegas Odds of winning, rounded) multiplied by .27 (Bills' Vegas Odds of losing), which is 21.1 percent. A Bills win/Bengals loss is .73*.22 = 16.1 percent.
That means the risk ratio is 21.1/16.1 = 1.3.
UPDATE: As Rmiktus helpfully points out in the comments, the math initially was incorrect on the Bills reward ratio below. The "four" people out on Bills if they lose should be "15," as 15 percent of public picked them in our poll. Chalk it up to first-week jitters. It's corrected in the paragraph following the strikethrough. However, this changes the conclusions. Read on.
For the reward ratio, we'll use a hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool. If the Bengals win/Bills lose, four people are out on the Bills plus another 15 non-Bills owners projected to lose, for 19 total losers. 100-19 = 81 remaining owners, $1,000/81 = $12.35.
For the reward ratio, we'll use a hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool. If the Bengals win/Bills lose, 15 people are out on the Bills plus another 15 non-Bills owners projected to lose, for 30 total losers. 100-39 = 70 remaining owners, $1,000/70 = $14.28
If the Bills win/Bengals lose, it's 40 out on the Bengals, plus 15 more, for 55 total losers. 100-55 = 45, $1,000/45= $22.22.
UPDATE Cont: The reward ratio now changes to:
The ratio of $22.22/$14.28 is 1.6.
So, the risk ratio of picking the Bills is 1.3, but the reward is 1.6. There's still value in taking the Bills, but that's not enough of a reward to pick them instead of the Bengals.
The ratio of $22.22/$12.35 is 1.8.
So, the risk ratio of picking the Bills is 1.3, but the reward is 1.8. That makes the Bills a value pick, but it's a borderline pot-odds play. Anytime the reward outweighs the risk, it can be acted upon, but you usually want such a great disparity in ownership that the reward/risk is screaming for you to take the value team. This isn't screaming. But it's not whispering either, and if the Bengals lose, 40 percent of your pool will be knocked out. I'm fine with going this route and fading the Bengals.
Picks below are in order of preference, adjusted to put the Bengals first based on the above correction.
My Picks
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are the popular pick this week largely because of Joe Burrow and what might be the worst offense in the league in the Patriots. Burrow is healthy, but Ja'Marr Chase is still uncertain to play Week 1. Maybe a Chase-less offense is still strong enough to get by the Patriots, but defense wasn't New England's problem last season (15th in scoring and seventh in yards allowed). Alas, if the Patriots fall behind early, they likely won't have enough offense to come back.
Buffalo Bills
The Cardinals have a little hype going their way thanks to the addition of rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison, but for however much they've improved offensively (probably marginal), their defense is still likely among the worst in the league. The Bills should be tough defensively despite losing some key pieces this offseason, and Buffalo should control the line of scrimmage (on both sides) at home. And Josh Allen is Josh Allen.
Seattle Seahawks
New defensive-minded head coach Mike Macdonald should confuse and stifle QB Bo Nix in his NFL debut, even if Seattle's roster doesn't match what Macdonald had in Baltimore last year. Plus, if the Seahawks get up early, the home crowd, most of which is already salivating at pouncing on the former Oregon Duck, will make it difficult for the rookie Nix to think straight. Also, new Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb's expected downfield attack should beat a Denver defense that was awful last season and did little to improve this offseason.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints get the Panthers at home, which is reason enough to pick them. The Panthers added WR Diontae Johnson this offseason but not much else. Johnson should help, but new coach Dave Canales isn't going make over Bryce Young in one training camp.
Chicago Bears
It's tough picking a rookie QB in his Week 1 debut, but Caleb Williams and the Bears seemingly have a safe(r) matchup against the visiting Titans. Tennessee's defense projects to be average at best, so this should give Williams a somewhat soft landing. The Bears' defense is significantly better after key moves this offseason to cover the bald spots, and Titans QB Will Levis is highly inaccurate (until he proves otherwise).
Notable Omission:
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers had a chaotic offseason. The Super Bowl loss, contract disputes, holdouts, injuries — it was distraction after distraction. Maybe that all goes away after the ball is snapped. Maybe not. The Jets have been looking forward to this since Aaron Rodgers went down in the season opener last year. Even if Rodgers and the offense don't thrive Monday night, New York's defense should be up to the task. The 49ers probably win at home, but it's not a sure enough thing to risk a Survivor entry.
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