This article is part of our Survivor series.
The impossible Survivor season continues, as five of the six most popular picks last week lost. Worse still, the lone popular winner, the Jets, was our notable omission (as reader bluedevilnc helpfully pointed out in the comments last week). One of our five picks at least won (the Seahawks).
If you're still alive, hats off.
In my pool, of the original 442 entrants, just 20 remain (4.5 percent).
On to Week 4.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ERS | Patriots | 34.2% | 475 | 82.6% | 5.95 |
| JETS | Broncos | 17.7% | 315 | 75.9% | 4.27 |
| Cowboys | GIANTS | 12.9% | 225 | 69.2% | 3.97 |
| TEXANS | Jaguars | 12.5% | 305 | 75.3% | 3.09 |
| Chiefs | CHARGERS | 9.0% | 395 | 79.8% | 1.82 |
| Bengals | PANTHERS | 4.7% | 202.5 | 66.9% | 1.55 |
| CARDINALS | Commanders | 2.0% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.77 |
| LIONS | Seahawks | 1.5% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.55 |
| Steelers | COLTS | 1.3% | 122.5 | 55.1% | 0.58 |
| Titans | DOLPHINS | 0.6% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.29 |
| BEARS | Rams | 0.4% | 135 | 57.4% | 0.17 |
| Eagles | BUCCANEERS | 0.4% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.17 |
| RAIDERS | Browns | 0.3% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.14 |
| PACKERS | Vikings | 0.3% | 122.5 | 55.1% | 0.13 |
| RAVENS | Bills | 0.2% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.09 |
| FALCONS | Saints | 0.1% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.05 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
At first glance, the 49ers' near-double ownership rate over the Jets might spark the idea
The impossible Survivor season continues, as five of the six most popular picks last week lost. Worse still, the lone popular winner, the Jets, was our notable omission (as reader bluedevilnc helpfully pointed out in the comments last week). One of our five picks at least won (the Seahawks).
If you're still alive, hats off.
In my pool, of the original 442 entrants, just 20 remain (4.5 percent).
On to Week 4.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ERS | Patriots | 34.2% | 475 | 82.6% | 5.95 |
| JETS | Broncos | 17.7% | 315 | 75.9% | 4.27 |
| Cowboys | GIANTS | 12.9% | 225 | 69.2% | 3.97 |
| TEXANS | Jaguars | 12.5% | 305 | 75.3% | 3.09 |
| Chiefs | CHARGERS | 9.0% | 395 | 79.8% | 1.82 |
| Bengals | PANTHERS | 4.7% | 202.5 | 66.9% | 1.55 |
| CARDINALS | Commanders | 2.0% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.77 |
| LIONS | Seahawks | 1.5% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.55 |
| Steelers | COLTS | 1.3% | 122.5 | 55.1% | 0.58 |
| Titans | DOLPHINS | 0.6% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.29 |
| BEARS | Rams | 0.4% | 135 | 57.4% | 0.17 |
| Eagles | BUCCANEERS | 0.4% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.17 |
| RAIDERS | Browns | 0.3% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.14 |
| PACKERS | Vikings | 0.3% | 122.5 | 55.1% | 0.13 |
| RAVENS | Bills | 0.2% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.09 |
| FALCONS | Saints | 0.1% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.05 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
At first glance, the 49ers' near-double ownership rate over the Jets might spark the idea of a pot-odds play. But it would take a higher ownership rate than San Francisco's 34 percent for that. I'll spare you the details, but if you go through the process, you'd see the risk ratio of picking the Jets instead of the 49ers is 1.5, but the reward ratio is only 1.3.
So, pick who you want. I still like the Jets more than the 49ers, for what it's worth (see below).
Outside of the two most-popular teams, though, it's not an easy schedule. And considering the way this season has gone, would it surprise anyone if the 49ers or Jets lost?
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers looked capable last week against the Patriots, but it was the New York defense that really stood out. The Jets get another bad offense this week in the Broncos. Denver's upset win at Tampa Bay doesn't mean Bo Nix is suddenly a good passer. He improved his YPA by a full yard ... to 6.0. And while he's fourth in the league in attempts, he's still the only starting QB without a TD pass.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are missing most of their stars, and it caught up to them last week with a loss at the Rams. But their defense is relatively healthy and after the Patriots did nothing against the Jets last week, it would be surprising if they did anything against the 49ers. (However, if the Curse of 2024 holds, the 49ers will lose outright as the week's biggest favorite.)
Houston Texans
The Texans and this week's opponent, the Jaguars, both got shellacked last week. Houston was limited by a stout Minnesota defense. That's not Jacksonville. And if Joe Mixon returns, all the better for the Texans. The Jaguars are on a short week after playing on Monday and are on the road. Hey, remember when Trevor Lawrence was touted as the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck or even John Elway? He's not those guys.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs haven't necessarily impressed this season, and Patrick Mahomes' downfield passing is even worse than last season — just 4.3 percent of his attempts have gone longer than 20 yards as he has a league-low 4.6-yard average target depth. But the Chargers are so beat up, including an ankle injury to Justin Herbert, it might not matter. It's also likely to be a pro-Chiefs crowd at Los Angeles.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals can't really go 0-4, can they? Against the Panthers? On the other hand ... revenge game for Andy Dalton? Panthers are feeling good after an impossible win last week, but the Bengals' desperation should carry them. Of course, we said that last week too.
Tennessee Titans
The winless Titans get a Dolphins team that could be starting its third-string QB. What's more, it might be Tyler Huntley, who was signed nine days ago. The Titans might not be good, but they're probably better than an offense with whoever the Dolphins have taking snaps. Those who have used three of the above teams could consider the Titans.
NOTABLE OMISSION:
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys just aren't that good. They can't run the ball (re-signing washed-up Ezekiel Elliott didn't work out? Who knew?) nor stop the run. Their defense has been bullied two weeks in a row by the Saints and Ravens. Only the Ravens' struggles to put teams away kept the Cowboys in the game last week. The Giants have flaws too, but they're coming off their first win of the season and are at home Thursday night. No chance I'd use the Cowboys in Survivor this week.
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