This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
Baker Mayfield might have been a bust as Carolina's quarterback plan this year, but he's still definitely better than P.J. Walker. For whatever reason it's Walker the Falcons will start against Atlanta on Thursday, making an already winnable road game even more easily managed. Marcus Mariota has been limited as a passer but surprisingly stabilizing for the Falcons offense overall, and at 4-5 they actually head into this game tied for the division lead with Tampa Bay. While the Panthers' ragtag group plays hard for interim coach Steve Wilks, the Falcons presumably will play with their own urgency with the division lead so close to their reach. It's not clear to what effect, but rain is expected to be a factor for most or all of this game, and both teams were already bad enough as passing offenses. Dome teams are normally seen as soft and quick to fold in adverse weather, but we'll see if Arthur Smith's run-heavy Falcons might prove an exception to that assumption. The spread is 42.5 after opening at 41, and the spread has favored Atlanta by 2.5 throughout the week.
QUARTERBACKS
The rain will presumably have some effect on Marcus Mariota ($10200 DK, $17000 FD), but as the league's most run-heavy quarterback it's possible that he'll be somewhat insulated from the rain, which tends to drag down passing games if anything. Mariota also has fairly big hands for a QB (71st percentile, according to Mockdraftable), which somewhat alleviates ball security concerns. In a one-game slate with sizable projected rushing volume on the favored team, Mariota is a tough fade despite his high price. Aside from the Falcons offense just not showing up, the way Mariota would disappoint his fantasy investors here is if the Falcons running backs do so much they give him the day off. That's a possibility, too, and it's worth noting that Mariota has exceeded 20 fantasy points only twice on Fanduel and only three times on DraftKings out of nine games.
P.J. Walker ($9600 DK, $15000 FD) should not be starting this game but now that he is, he's worth some consideration against an Atlanta defense that isn't good and specifically lacks healthy personnel in the secondary. The Falcons are without their top two corners, and their front seven personnel is limited too. Both DJ Moore and Terrace Marshall should be open. The question is whether (A) Walker's pass blocking holds up and (B) whether Walker plays decently if the blocking does come through. Walker is the kind of player who eventually gets phased out – small, modest tools, no accuracy as a passer. He doesn't have anything going for him except his grit, which can only carry you small distances before you eventually sink after the sample size expands. Perhaps this game does not yet mark the point where Walker's time is up. Rain aside, it is an easy matchup at least.
RUNNING BACKS
D'Onta Foreman ($7800 DK, $11000 FD) has something of a subtle Revenge Game narrative here, against Arthur Smith if not the Falcons themselves. Foreman could have been on Atlanta's roster last year and now, but for whatever reason Smith let Foreman go. Foreman has only been productive with opportunity, which unfortunately didn't occur last week as the Bengals raced out to an almost immediately insurmountable lead. If Foreman gets more opportunity in this game, then he's already demonstrated what he's capable of. Foreman annihilated the Falcons defense in Week 8, producing 118 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries. Foreman is better than Chuba Hubbard ($5800 DK, $10000 FD) might be a problem for Foreman anyway, as Hubbard is set to return from the ankle injury that cost him the last two weeks. If the Panthers force a timeshare between Hubbard and Foreman then it's the kind of thing that could derail Foreman, not just for volume limitations but because part of his effectiveness is due to the way he grinds down a defense over the course of the game. The less the Panthers use Foreman, the better for Atlanta because Hubbard is a downgrade in himself and one who undermines Foreman. Raheem Blackshear ($5000 DK, $7000 FD) is an excellent pass catcher but that might be all he's capable of, and the Panthers could try to justify Hubbard partially by taking away pass reps from Blackshear. Spencer Brown ($1000 DK, $6500 FD) presumably won't play if Hubbard does. Giovanni Ricci ($400 DK, $5500 FD) is a fullback who doesn't see consistent opportunity, but he's a former tight end who knows how to catch the ball and run a bit.
Cordarrelle Patterson ($11800 DK, $14000 FD) scored twice last week after missing four weeks due to knee injury, and now it will be interesting to see how the Falcons handle him on a short week. He only played 23 snaps in Week 9 – seeing 13 carries and nine pass routes – but it would still be understandable if the Falcons wanted to limit his workload somewhat, especially if the rain makes the field sketchy. Power runners Tyler Allgeier ($6200 DK, $10000 FD) and Caleb Huntley ($4800 DK, $8000 FD) are well-built for slop games specifically, so if the Falcons want to give Patterson a light day they should have that option. Allgeier would likely be the lead back if Patterson is limited at all, with Huntley playing a bit but still as Allgeier's clear backup.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
DJ Moore ($9200 DK, $12000 FD) and Terrace Marshall ($8400 DK, $9000 FD) both have good matchups for Carolina as they face a battered Atlanta secondary. Moore needed a Hail Mary catch to do it, but he lit up the Falcons two weeks ago and Marshall began his breakout in the same game with four catches for 87 yards on nine targets. Walker is a liability at quarterback and his pass blocking can't be taken for granted, but the Atlanta pass rush is mostly weak and the corners definitely cannot cover Moore or Marshall. So long as the rain doesn't get intense, these two should be fine. It's less clear whether a third candidate might emerge. Shi Smith ($3600 DK, $6000 FD) simply needs to hit the bench – Laviska Shenault ($3000 DK, $7500 FD) is clearly the better player – so the more Smith plays the less likely Moore and Marshall have their target share encroached upon by any target competition. Shenault might be able to pose as much, but Smith certainly can't. Tommy Tremble ($3200 DK, $7000 FD) has seen his playing time increase at the expense of Ian Thomas ($2000 DK, $5500 FD), and Tremble has two touchdowns in his last three games while Thomas is almost entirely reduced to a blocker.
Drake London ($8200 DK, $10500 FD) will be very good one day and is far from bad in the meantime, but the game might be a bit big for him at the moment. That would be completely understandable given that he just turned 21 at the end of July, but it would also be understandable if Jaycee Horn got the better of him in this matchup. London produced four catches for 31 yards on five targets the last time these teams played. Olamide Zaccheaus ($5400 DK, $8000 FD) tends to line up in the slot, where his returns have dried up in the last two weeks, and where he gets a formidable matchup against Myles Hartsfield. Kyle Pitts ($7000 DK, $8500 FD) could be in a good spot if London is on Horn and Hartsfield is on Zaccheaus, because at that point it's much easier to throw to Pitts than the other two. If the Panthers try to put Horn on Pitts then they might see London hurt them for it. Damiere Byrd ($4400 DK, $6500 FD) put up three catches for 67 yards and a touchdown on six targets the last time these teams played, but to this point he plays less than Zaccheaus. KhaDarel Hodge ($1400 DK, $6500 FD) is hanging around as the WR4.
KICKER
Both of these kickers tend to see inconsistent opportunity and the weather might lessen their effectiveness, but it wouldn't be shocking if field goals were kicked in a game otherwise defined by offensive struggles. Younghoe Koo ($4200 DK, $9500 FD) is a very good kicker moreover, and despite his inconsistent opportunity levels from week to week he has demonstrated single-game upside with four games of 12 or more fantasy points, including a 14-point game and a 19-point game. Eddy Piniero ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) lacks Koo's range but has quietly been very accurate as a field goal kicker in the NFL, but he might still be reeling from his nightmare game against the Falcons two weeks, ago, when his missed field goal and missed PAT allowed the Falcons to implausibly secure the victory.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Neither defense is good, but neither is either offense, and the rain might make things wackier yet. Stopping the Atlanta ground game is easier said than done if you're the Panthers ($3800 DK, $9500 FD), but in Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn you have two top talents at premium positions, so the Falcons can turn the ball over if they're not careful. The Falcons ($5200 DK, $10000 FD) don't have any star talents on defense – at least not with A.J. Terrell out – but if they do well here it would probably trace to Walker struggling, which he usually does.
