This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders - Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions
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After a successful trip to London and their consequent bye week, our heroes, OUR CHICAGO BEARS return to the field this Sunday in DC. Who would have guessed this contest would become one of the marquee games when the season started? Yes, you have the #1 (Caleb Williams) and #2 (Jayden Daniels) picks in last year's draft going head-to-head, but both of these teams are arguably.......good? Their success has come in very different forms with the Commanders sporting a dynamic offense and the Bears relying on a stingy and opportunistic defense. Time to break this one down.
Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders Betting Odds
Bears -3 / Commanders +3
Bears ML -142 / Commanders ML +135
Total OVER 43 / UNDER 43.5
When this line opened last Sunday, Chicago was -1, largely due to the injury to Jayden Daniels. Support for the Bears continued through the week with the line steadily climbing to the current 3. The total has done some strange things. It opened at 45, jumped almost immediately to 46.5, and then slowly dropped through the week to the current number. This tells me there is not a lot of confidence in Daniels playing, which means there could be some hidden value here. The line and total movements both go against the splits - 61% of bets and 59% of the money has come in on Washington, yet the line moved towards the Bears. 83% of the bets and 69% of the money is on the over, but the total moved down. Interesting stuff.
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Bears @ Commanders Betting Picks
From what I've read and heard, Jayden Daniels could have gone back in to last week's game if needed. Obviously, Washington will make sure their young superstar is healthy and completely protected before putting him back out on the field. But given he was healthy enough to play last week and has returned to practice this week, I'm pretty confident he will play. Washington also boasts one of the best offensive lines in football which is a helpful factor as well. If Daniels plays, there is tremendous value on the Commanders. Even without Daniels, let's talk about Marcus Mariota for a minute. Mariota, one of the better backups in the league, was outstanding in relief of Daniels last week. The Washington offense is humming and what, exactly, have the Bears done to enter as a road favorite against a 5-2 team? The Bears are 0-2 on the road so far this year with losses at Houston and Indy. Let's make it 0-3. We are going with the Commanders on the moneyline at +135 for this week's Best Bet. I will also take the points and the over with both offenses cooking.
Bears @ Commanders Best Bet: Commanders ML +135 (@ BetMGM)
Bears @ Commanders Prediction
Both teams have a tendency to start slow and then explode in the second quarter and I look for more of the same this week. Washington will be conservative with Daniels' health early and the stingy Bears D will hold things in check. Chicago should move the ball on the Commanders defense, but settle for a couple of field goals and a 6-0 lead going into the second quarter. There, both young guns heat up, combining to score 31 points in the quarter with the Bears taking a 20-17 lead into half. Both teams keep the pedal down to start the third, trading touchdowns for a 27-24 Bears lead heading into the fourth. There, both defenses buckle down with a late Daniels-to-Terry McLaurin touchdown giving the Commanders a 31-27 victory.
