This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Carolina Panthers -3.0 (-115) vs. Washington Football Team
Tough spot for the Football Team here, as they lost their current #2 receiving option Ricky Seals-Jones to an injury and will be without him this week, while their starting TE Logan Thomas is still not ready to return from IR. This will shift more emphasis to their clear #1 receiving threat Terry McLaurin, who already faces a tough matchup vs. Stephon Gilmore this week. Meanwhile, the Panthers recently returned their best offensive weapon Christian McCaffrey, and now turn to their former QB and team leader Cam Newton, who scored a couple of touchdowns in his Carolina return last week and is now slated to get the starting nod vs. one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Both McCaffrey and DJ Moore seem set up for solid games here, while the Panther defense should be able to keep an undermanned Washington offense in check.
New Orleans Saints +3.0 (-120) at Philadelphia Eagles
As mentioned last week, the Eagles have gone all-in on their rushing attack, averaging 41 carries per game over their last three games. That plays right into the Saints strength, which is their top-rated run defense. The Saints have allowed both the fewest yards (656) and fewest yards per carry (3.1) in the league, and are tied for the third-fewest rushing touchdowns allowed (6). We're also picking up a good number here, with most outlets currently offering the Saints at +2.5 points. It's worth noting points should be at a premium here, with the total listed in the low 40's due to limited offenses and an overabundance of rushing, which should keep the clock rolling. I think the Saints can keep this game very close and/or come out on top, same as they did vs. another run-heavy team in the Titans last week.
Deebo Samuel over 73.5 receiving yards (-115)
Nice game setup here for Deebo, who has been one of the best in the league this year at breaking long gainers, averaging fewer than 14.3 yards per catch in only one game over his last six (and breaking long gainers of 26+ yards in all six of those games). Meanwhile, the Jaguars defense is vulnerable in that department, allowing a hefty 8.0 yards per passing attempt this year. Deebo also figures to be targeted a little more frequently in this game (and will probably line up in the backfield more often this week as well), with the 49ers starting RB Elijah Mitchell slated to miss this game with a broken finger (keep your eye on Jeff Wilson this week). Expecting a big Deebo game.
Jonathan Taylor over 73.5 rushing yards (-125)
Pretty attainable number here for the overall RB1. The only time over his last five starts where Taylor didn't rush for at least 100 yards was in Week 8 vs. the Titans, but Taylor completely dominated in that game, and only fell short of 100 rushing yards because he had two long runs (both a 20-yarder and a 30-yarder) called back on penalties. While the Bills have one of the best run defenses in the league (allowing the third-fewest yards and tied for the third fewest yards per attempt), Taylor will be highly active here, and has been crushing this number on a regular basis.
Joe Burrow over 267.5 passing yards (-115)
This seems a short number for an efficient Bengals passing offense in a game with a total of 50 points. Burrow has failed to cover this number only once in the last six games, and should come out throwing here after the Raiders were torched through the air by Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs last week (406 yards and 5 touchdowns on 70% completions). As mentioned, the Bengals have been highly efficient through the air this year, leading the league with an impressive 8.8 yards per passing attempt. Good chance of success here in the dome environment.
CeeDee Lamb over 79.5 receiving yards (-125)
Lamb should get all the work he can handle this week, as Amari Cooper will miss this game after landing on the Covid list. Obviously this game figures as a wide-open, back-and-forth affair with the highest total of the week (56.5). There's also a fair chance of Cowboys garbage time here, which could help Lamb's numbers towards the end of the game. The Chiefs passing defense has definitely been beatable this year, allowing the third-most yards in the league (2586) along with the fifth-most yards per attempt (8.0). Just a nice situation for Lamb this week with the expected volume.