This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (+100) vs. Buffalo Bills
Tampa has been brilliant at home this year, going 5-0 while outscoring their opponents 192-84. In those games, Buccaneers QB Tom Brady has thrown 20 touchdown passes, compared to only 14 on the road (in two extra road starts). That's an average of 4 TD passes per home game. Meanwhile, the Bills seem to underperform just about every week, covering the point spread just twice over their last 7 games. The main thing Bills have going for them in this matchup is their league-leading pass defense, but Tampa's passing game has been so effective at home that it seems unlikely Buffalo will be able to slow them down significantly. The Buccaneers have also shown themselves capable of mixing it up on offense, with RB Leonard Fournette having a huge season (he currently ranks as the RB4 overall). I think the Buccaneers will be able to cover this small number at home vs. the underachieving Bills.
Cam Newton anytime touchdown (+110)
Newton has scored a rushing touchdown in all three games as the Panthers' QB, and this week faces the Falcons as a home favorite in a game where RB Christian McCaffrey is unavailable. Seems likely Cam can find the end zone once again.
CeeDee Lamb over 73.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Cowboys came into this week with the fourth-most passing yards in the league, and will finally be getting all their passing game weapons back on the field at the same time (aside from Tony Pollard, perhaps). This sets up well versus Washington, who have allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the league. I expect to see a ton of Dallas passing in this game, with the emerging Tony Pollard likely out (or limited), while Ezekiel Elliott has been banged up and mostly ineffective. CeeDee Lamb could be the prime beneficiary of that versus a weak Washington pass defense.
Antonio Gibson over 68.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Football Team has gone decidedly run-heavy over the last month, with Gibson averaging 23+ carries per game over his last four starts (notably, all Washington wins). There's little reason for Football Team to go away from that, as the Dallas run defense allows 4.5 yards per carry. Gibson seems likely to cover this total on sheer volume.
Tee Higgins over 68.5 receiving yards (-115)
Higgins has simply exploded over the last two weeks, posting easily his best game of the year (6-114-1 on 8 targets) against the Steelers a couple of weeks ago, then promptly exceeding that (9-138-1 on 14 targets) versus the Chargers last week. Given his recent volume, it's difficult to see Higgins not surpassing this modest total, especially in a game where the Bengals are a home underdog and can be expected to throw a fair amount. Be advised, Higgins is listed as questionable this week with an ankle injury, but he practiced (limited) on Thursday/Friday and should be expected to play.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 41.5 receiving yards (-115)
MVS has really come on of late, garnering 19 targets over his last two games. As we know, he tends to be pretty effective with the catches that he pulls down, with long gainers of 28+ yards in four of his last five starts. As long as he continues to get this type of attention from Aaron Rodgers, he can be a very effective fantasy player in this offense, with 41 yards much more representative of his floor than his ceiling. I like his chances versus the Bears this week.