This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
GAMES
Green Bay Packers 
-6.5 (-110) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
After laying an egg in their season opener at New Orleans, the Packers rebounded with an easy home win over Detroit and a sharp road win over San Francisco. They now return to Lambeau Field to take on a vulnerable Pittsburgh team that has a ton of problems, most notably their restrictive short-range passing game caused by poor offensive line play and Ben Roethlisberger's arm being in steep decline (the same major problems they had last year). The Steelers have also been quite beatable through the air over the last two weeks, with Joe Burrow throwing for 9.6 yards per attempt (with 3 touchdowns) and Derek Carr throwing for 10.3 yards per attempt (with 382 yards and 2 touchdowns) over that span. This game also sets up well for the Packers from a home/road standpoint, as the Packers are generally much better at home, while the Steelers are generally much worse on the road. I suspect the Packers win this one rather easily.
Los Angeles Chargers 
-3.0 (-115) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Chargers have been impressive so far this year, notching a couple of nice road wins over Washington and Kansas City, with their only loss coming at home vs. Dallas in a game where Justin Herbert threw a costly interception in the end zone with the Chargers about to score, then losing a second touchdown due to a penalty. The Raiders are currently unbeaten at 3-0, but two of those wins came in overtime vs. teams missing that were missing key players due to injury, and their other win came over a struggling Steelers team that has looked terrible the past two weeks. I think the Raiders are getting too much credit from the bookmakers right now, as the Chargers appear to be the superior team, and should probably be laying a bit more than a field goal at home.
PLAYER PROPS
Chuba Hubbard over 23.3 receiving yards (-115)
Obviously, the Panthers offense was designed around Christian McCaffrey, with lots of passes being caught out of the backfield. When CMC got hurt last year, their offense really didn't change much, with Mike Davis stepping into the role and performing quite well in the receiving game. Much the same thing happened with Chuba Hubbard last week after CMC went down, as he was targeted five times (catching three) for 27 yards. That being said, 23.5 looks like a pretty short number for a full game of Hubbard, perhaps especially so vs. a Dallas defense that is quite soft vs. the pass (the Cowboys have allowed the third-most receiving yards this year).
Tim Patrick over 4 receptions (+100)
Patrick has been quite good for the Broncos (both this year and last) when given an opportunity, and he certainly has that now, not just with Jerry Jeudy being out, but also now with K.J. Hamler out for the year. Patrick stepped up with a nice 5-98 game last week, and should continue his growth here with Hamler missing, perhaps especially in a game where the Broncos might be playing from behind. Patrick has had 4, 3, and 5 receptions in Denver's three games this year, with the 3-reception game coming at Jacksonville when Courtland Sutton went crazy with a 9-159 line (not something we should expect again). Also worth noting the Broncos had a big second-half lead in that game and didn't really need to throw (same deal vs. the Jets last week). Nice play at +100 here, as the worst I would expect would be a push. It's hard to see Patrick catching fewer than 4 passes in this spot, and anything more gets the money.
D'Andre Swift over 39.5 receiving yards (-115)
Swift is listed as questionable with a groin injury (be sure and monitor his status), but that's been the case all year and he seemingly hasn't been hampered. Regarding his role in the Lions offense, he's been slotted into a CMC/Kamara/Ekeler type role where he catches a lot of passes out of the backfield (23 targets over the first three games). He has gone over this number in all three starts (65, 41, 60), and that doesn't figure to stop vs. the Bears, especially when you consider that Kareem Hunt had arguably his best game since leaving the Chiefs when facing the Bears last week (Hunt caught 6 passes for 74 yards). As long as Swift is healthy and ready to go, this should be a nice spot for him.
Davante Adams over 92.5 receiving yards (-120)
As mentioned above, the Steelers have allowed high efficiency through the air in their last couple of games, which should lead to a big game (as per usual) for Davante Adams, particularly with Marquez Valdes-Scantling out this week. Obviously, this is a large number, but Adams went for 121 and 132 yards the past two weeks, notably with an astounding 18 targets last week. No doubt he'll have plenty of opportunities to pile up some yardage here. Another player to look at with the MVS absence is Allen Lazard, although the non-Adams receivers are always very unpredictable, and the Packers may simply opt to use more Aaron Jones and/or Robert Tonyan (or hopefully just more Adams).
Austin Ekeler over 35.5 receiving yards (-115)
I mentioned Ekeler as a CMC/Kamara type catching passes out of the backfield, and of course that's true, with Ekeler being targeted 15 times over the last two games (for 61 and 52 yards, respectively). The Chargers figure to be throwing a lot here (as usual) in this high-totaled matchup, and it's probably worth noting that Steelers RB Najee Harris put up a nice 5-43-1 receiving line vs. the Raiders a couple of weeks ago. Just seems like too small a number for Ekeler here.
