2023 John Deere Classic Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Updated on July 5, 2023 3:05PM EST

John Deere Classic Betting Preview

The Midwest Swing continues following a dramatic playoff that saw Rickie Fowler capture his first win in over fours at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

The PGA Tour now heads to the Quad Cities for the John Deere Classic. Preceding a pair of events in Europe over the next two weeks, the field is noticeably weaker than recent events. Cameron Young is the only player among the top 20 in the OWGR on hand, and Russell Henley is the favorite at 14-1 odds.

Last year, J.T. Poston -- at 40-1 -- picked up his second PGA Tour win with a three-shot victory over Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Emiliano Grillo.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 2:30 PM ET Wednesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par 71, 7,289 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: John Deere Classic Winners Over Last Five Years

SG: Off-the-Tee: 26.0
SG: Approach: 22.8
SG: Around-the-Green: 26.0
SG: Putting: 13.3
SG: Tee-to-Green: 9.0
Driving Distance: 47.8
Driving Accuracy: 16.0

I visit this event yearly, so TPC Deere Run is a track I know well. Much like last week, birdies are plentiful here, with the average winning score since 2018 being 22-under-par. Off the tee, there's certainly an emphasis on accuracy over distance. There are many tree-lined fairways, and four of the par-4s are forced layups that will take driver out of the hands of the longer hitters more often than they would like. Thus, it shouldn't be much of a surprise that we haven't seen the winner of this event finish top-30 in driving distance dating back to 2015. The course isn't particularly long, and players will have a lot of approaches inside 150 yards. Double bogeys or worse are also rare, as there are only three water holes that rarely come into play. Ideally, I'm looking for golfers who are accurate drivers, good wedge players, strong putters and capable of making birdies in bunches.

Getting it Done at Deere Run

These five golfers, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at TPC Deere Run since 2018.

Henley enters the week as the top choice on the board and has made the cut in all three of his trips to the Quad Cities, finishing runner-up in 2019 and tied for 11th two years ago. He's dominated the course through elite iron play, ranking second and sixth in SG: Approach in his last two appearances. Following a slow start to the year, Henley is back in excellent form, having finished top-20 in seven of his last eight events. Another "horse for the course," albeit much further down the betting board is Stroud. He recorded top-5s here in 2015 and 2019 and pops up on the leaderboard every so often like he did with a T5 at The RSM Classic last fall. He's worth consideration as a low-cost DFS option. 2021 winner Glover recorded his first top-10 finish of the season last week in Detroit.

Approach at Will

The following players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

Iron play has always been the strength of Hubbard's game, and he's been on quite a run lately, gaining shots on approach in nine of his last 10 tournaments. That led to a pair of top-10s over his last five starts. Hubbard had his best finish in this event last year with a T13. Surprisingly, he's not being given much attention by the oddsmakers and provides nice value at 55-1. Smalley -- listed at 35-1 -- has also been in form with his irons and ranked top-10 in SG: Approach each of the last two weeks. He managed a T16 here last year despite losing shots on the greens, and four of his five top-25s this year have come since May.

John Deere Classic Bets: Outright Picks

Eric Cole (35-1)

Cole continues to trend in a positive direction. He posted a runner-up at the end of February, and over his last nine starts he finished top-25 six times -- and top-10 in two of those. His strengths -- iron play and putting -- will come handy at Deere Run.

Sepp Straka (50-1)

There aren't a lot of players in the field who won all that recently, and Straka is among them. Still, he is moderately priced. His ceiling is higher than most in the field, led by his combination of length and accuracy with driver. He has a runner-up result this season and was second in SG: Approach at the PGA Championship.

Sam Stevens (65-1)

Stevens has shown himself to be an above average ball striker in his rookie season on Tour, ranking 21st in SG: Off-the-Tee while also gaining shots on approach. Although he hasn't found himself in contention recently, he made seven of his last eight cuts and finished runner-up at the Valero Texas Open in April.

John Deere Classic Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Chez Reavie (5-1)

After hitting a top-10 bet last week with Aaron Rai, I'll try to keep rolling with Reavie, who has played quality golf since the spring, with four top-25s and only one missed cut over his last 10 starts. His lack of driving distance isn't much of a detriment here, and his T4 came at TPC River Highlands, which is a very comparable track to the one he will see this week.

Gordon Sargent (8-1)

Sargent will be making his fourth start of the year and recently earned low amateur honors at the U.S. Open. The Vanderbilt product currently sits atop the World Amateur Golf Rankings and is averaging 324 yards off the tee. He will look to overpower the course and is certainly capable of a birdie binge.

Carl Yuan (11-1)

Yuan seems to have found something recently, as both his top-20s this season came over his last three tournaments. As such, I'm surprised to see the value here. Despite ranking 122nd in SG: Total, he's 58th in birdies or better, so he should benefit from the easier conditions.

John Deere Classic Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Doug Ghim (+100) over Ludvig Aberg

I like Aberg's potential as much as the next guy, but this is as close to a hometown event as Ghim will see, and he's a great fit for matchups, having finished no worse than T33 over his last five appearances. He was also second in SG: Approach here in 2021. Aberg has lost strokes on approach in all three tournaments he has played as a professional, and I don't think a place where wedge play and putting reign supreme is the best fit for him.

Beau Hossler (-110) over Byeong Hun An

An has missed two cuts in a row and missed the cut by four shots in his lone JDC appearance two years ago. He has been solid from tee to green this year, but this is far from an ideal setup, as he's wayward off the tee and struggles mightily on the greens. Hossler missed the cut in his last two starts and had a rough go of it in the short game -- typically his strength -- but he played the weekend in eight straight appearances prior to that.

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